Dennis Gates said there’s a storm coming.
He was, of course, referencing the winter weather currently passing through mid-Missouri, but all that snow and sub-zero temperatures aren’t going to do anything to halt No. 16/15 Missouri basketball suiting up Wednesday evening for its major late-season matchup against Alabama.
But there’s another storm coming, and there ain’t anything icy cold about this one.
That would be the red-hot ’Bama offense, which is what stands between the Tigers and a marquee win for its already-worthy tournament résumé.
The Crimson Tide, coached by Nate Oats, have stuck 100 points on seven different opponents this season. The last time a team held them below 80 was Jan. 14, when Ole Miss went to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and scored an upset win.
Alabama has only failed to score 80 points in a game three times this season, fielding the No. 3-ranked offense — only behind Auburn and Duke — on KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric.
Smokin’, sizzlin’, scorchin’ hot.
So, what’s Missouri’s plan to stop them scorin’?
Could the answer be to fight fire with fire?
“I’m not changing the way we’re playing. I’m not going to ever do that,” Gates said Tuesday. “We’re going to continue to have our guys play with confidence, play unselfishly, execute the game plan. … I want our guys to play with their instincts. I don’t want them to overthink anything.”
Those instincts served Mizzou well in double-digit point blowouts of Oklahoma and Georgia in the past week. The Tigers can keep up if the game becomes a shootout, as they possess the personnel to make that happen.
Caleb Grill is one of the nation’s leading 3-point shooters, although has had to adjust as teams increasingly have leaned on double-teams to counter his potential. Backup wing Jacob Crews has seen an uptick in his promised deep-ball ability in recent games. Eight different players have led the Tigers in scoring in a game this season, and 12 have registered a game with 10 or more points.
The analytical profiles of both teams’ offenses go hand-in-hand, too.
Mizzou (19-6, 8-4 SEC) ranks second in the conference for offensive rating with 1.221 points per possession, per CBB Analytics, and Alabama is fourth with 1.210. The Tide are third in the league for effective field goal percentage at 55.9%, and the Tigers are just 0.1% behind in fourth. Mizzou is No. 1 for free throw attempts per game, Alabama is No. 2. Missouri is No. 1 for true shooting percentage, and ’Bama is No. 2.
Mizzou can win a game that becomes an offensive exhibition.
But, that’s not necessarily what the Tigers want to happen Wednesday.
When Alabama scores 80, its record is 22-2 this season. When the Tide shoot more than 25 free throws, they’re 10-2. When they make more than 10 3-pointers in a game, they’re 12-1.
If they get going, Oats’ team is tough to stop.
Mizzou has to find a way to get the Crimson Tide, who come to Columbia on the back of a loss on their home floor against Auburn in a rare No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup Saturday, at least a little out of rhythm.
“We’ve got to defend the 3-point line. They get up a lot of 3s,” Grill said. “That means we’ve got to do a really good job cleaning up the rebounds and not letting them get second-chance opportunities. I think if we can contain their 3-point shooting and limit, maybe, some of their open looks and then clean up on the glass, I think we can put ourselves in a situation to hold them to less points than what they can score.
“Because they can score 100 points any night if they’re on fire or getting those second-chance opportunities.”
Gates also emphasized keeping the Tide off the free-throw line. Yes, point guard Mark Sears, who Gates thinks should be a first-team All-American, guard Aden Holloway and even 6-foot-11 forward Grant Nelson can shoot the ball. But, the Crimson Tide pair that ever-present 3-point threat with an ability to attack the paint and draw fouls.
Alabama is in the 99th percentile in the country, per CBB Analytics, at both 2-point field goal percentage and free throw attempts per game.
Missouri’s best path to disrupting the offense may be to turn Alabama over. That’s been one of the few holes in Nate Oats’ squad this season, as they lose the ball on 14.8% of their possessions.
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The challenges are plentiful, but the opportunities, seemingly, are present for Missouri to tie a program record and win a third top-five game this season.
The pace of the game promises to be high. The scoring may very well be free-flowing.
And if it does?
“Both teams score. Both teams play with a pace,” Gates said. “Hopefully the ball falls for us, and I hope it doesn’t fall for them. It’s just that simple.”
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Here’s how Missouri basketball can counter Alabama’s red-hot offense
