Oklahoma State football went 3-9 last season and laid a goose egg (0-9) in Big 12 play. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict improvement for the Cowboys in 2025.
How much improvement? Eh, you’ll see, but things can’t be as bad as they were last season. Can they???
Mike Gundy fired everybody except himself, so it’ll be a new coaching staff that we know little about leading a roster we know next to nothing about. Oh, and there’s a four-man competition at quarterback. Sounds fun!
Here are my ridiculously early OSU football predictions for 2025:
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OSU vs. Tennessee-Martin, Aug. 28
Fun fact: You can drive from Martin, Tennessee, (population 11,000) to Stillwater in less than nine hours.
UT-Martin has been a solid FCS program in Jason Simpson’s 18 seasons as coach. The Skyhawks three-peated as Ohio Valley Conference champions from 2021-23. UT-Martin made it to the second round of the FCS playoffs last season before losing to national runner-up Montana State.
This is a soft opening for a new-look OSU team. That’s good, because trouble awaits the Cowboys in Week 2.
Prediction: OSU 42, Tennessee-Martin 17 (1-0)
OSU at Oregon, Sept. 6
The good news for OSU: This isn’t the same Oregon team that went 13-1 last season. The dynamic quarterback/running back/wide receiver trio of Dillon Gabriel, Jordan James and Tez Johnson are gone. As are Derrick Harmon and Jordan Burch, two stars on the Ducks’ defensive line.
The bad news for OSU: Oregon has reloaded. Dan Lanning, 35-6 in his three seasons as coach, signed a top-five recruiting class and a top-five portal class, according to 247Sports.
Among Oregon’s acquisitions is former Nevada offensive tackle Isaiah World, the No. 1-ranked player in the portal.
Oklahoma State will be making its first trip to Autzen Stadium. OSU and Oregon have only met once, a 42-31 Oregon win in the 2008 Holiday Bowl.
Prediction: Oregon 45, OSU 14 (1-1)
OSU vs. Tulsa, Sept. 20
OSU has a 10-game winning streak against Tulsa dating back to 1999. All but two of those wins were by double digits.
We have no clue what to make of OSU, but we know even less about Tulsa under first-year coach Tre Lamb.
Prediction: OSU 28, Tulsa 13 (2-1)
OSU vs. Baylor, Sept. 27
What a bounceback by Dave Aranda and the Bears. After an 0-3 start in Big 12 play, Baylor rattled off six straight wins, including a 38-28 victory over OSU.
Aranda is back for his sixth season in Waco thanks to that second-half turnaround.
Baylor returns starting quarterback Sawyer Robertson, who threw 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions a year ago. Robertson ranked second among Big 12 quarterbacks in passer rating in 2024.
Prediction: Baylor 41, OSU 21 (2-2, 0-1 Big 12)
OSU at Arizona, Oct. 4
Arizona lost seven of its final eight games last season to finish 4-8 (2-7 Big 12). The fact that Utah and OSU fell on their faces distracted us from just how much the Wildcats — picked fifth in the Big 12 preseason poll — underachieved.
It was Brent Brennan’s first year on the job, but there was no excuse for Arizona having the third-worst offense in the Big 12 with a promising quarterback in Noah Fifita and a stud wideout in Tetairoa McMillan.
McMillan is off to the NFL, but Fifita is back. Brennan fired offensive coordinator Dino Babers and brought in former Texas Tech quarterback Seth Doege, who had been the offensive coordinator at Marshall.
Doege’s task? Helping Fifita reach the potential he flashed two seasons ago.
Prediction: Arizona 35, OSU 24 (2-3, 0-2 Big 12)
OSU vs. Houston, Oct. 11
The fact Houston managed to win three Big 12 games a year ago reflects how good of a coach Willie Fritz is. With Fritz entering Year 2, Houston’s arrow is pointing up.
Texas A&M transfer Conner Weigman will quarterback the Cougars. Weigman is a nice buy-low candidate. He showed some stuff before losing his job to Marcel Reed. The rest of Houston’s portal class is heavy on offensive and defensive linemen.
After an 0-2 start in Big 12 play, OSU will be hungry for a win.
Prediction: OSU 30, Houston 28 (3-3, 1-2 Big 12)
OSU vs. Cincinnati, Oct. 18
Getting Houston and Cincinnati in back-to-back home games is a gift for the Cowboys.
The Bearcats finished 2024 on a five-game losing streak and have just one Big 12 road win since joining the conference. Scott Satterfield isn’t long for the job.
Cincinnati’s 2025 recruiting and portal classes ranked 14th and 13th in the 16-team Big 12, according to 247Sports.
The best news for Cincinnati is the return of star defensive tackle Dontay “The Godfather” Corleone.
Prediction: OSU 24, Cincinnati 21 (4-3, 2-2 Big 12)
OSU at Texas Tech, Oct. 25
Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton had offseason shoulder surgery and is expected to miss all of spring ball. Even if Morton is slow to start the season, he should be fine by late October.
Mack Leftwich, 30, is Texas Tech’s new offensive coordinator. He held the same position at Texas State under G.J. Kinne. Leftwich is replacing Zach Kittley, who took the Florida Atlantic head coaching job.
Texas Tech flexed its financial muscle by signing the third-best portal class in the country, according to 247Sports. The Red Raiders emphasized getting better in the trenches.
Here’s a crazy stat: Texas Tech landed 11 four-star players in the portal. The Big 12’s other 15 teams landed a combined 12 four-star players.
Prediction: Texas Tech 49, OSU 26 (4-4, 2-3 Big 12)
OSU at Kansas, Nov. 1
It was a disappointing 2024 for the Jayhawks despite a strong close, beating Iowa State, BYU and Colorado in consecutive weeks in November.
Kansas had the No. 2 portal class in the Big 12, headlined by former South Carolina linebacker Bangally Kamara.
Quarterback Jalon Daniels is back for his 17th season in Lawrence.
Prediction: Kansas 35, OSU 28 (4-5, 2-4 Big 12)
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OSU vs. Kansas State, Nov. 15
Kansas State has won at least eight games in five of Chris Klieman’s first six seasons. The Wildcats followed their 2022 Big 12 Championship season with back-to-back nine-win campaigns in 2023 and 2024.
We’ll see if new offensive coordinator Matt Wells can help quarterback Avery Johnson take the next step.
Both teams will be coming off byes, so it’s not like this is a trap game for the Wildcats.
Prediction: Kansas State 31, OSU 21 (4-6, 2-5 Big 12)
OSU at UCF, Nov. 22
What’s old is new again. Scott Frost is back at UCF, eight years after he led the Knights to a 13-0 season. They’ve got a banner to prove it.
And guess who’s coordinating Frost’s defense? You got it, Alex Grinch!
It’s impossible to know what OSU or UCF is going to look like in 2025. Both programs are amid massive changes. I guess just give me the home team.
Prediction: UCF 28, OSU 27 (4-7, 2-6 Big 12)
OSU vs. Iowa State, Nov. 29
Not exactly an easy game to end with.
Iowa State is fresh off its best season in program history. The Cyclones won 11 games and made it to the Big 12 Championship Game, where they lost to Arizona State.
Cyclones quarterback Rocco Becht is the real deal
The Cyclones have won just once in Stillwater in the last 20 years, but they’ll have much more to play for in this season finale.
Prediction: Iowa State 38, OSU 10 (4-8, 2-7 Big 12)
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This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: How Oklahoma State football will fare in each 2025 season game
