Back in December through early February, when Illinois went 12-0, the Illini were one of the top three-point shooting teams. They were out-rebounding teams by double-digits. They got as high as No. 5 in the AP Poll on Feb. 2.
Then, after the Michigan State loss in overtime, the Illini struggled down the stretch, going 4-4, losing three overtime games. including back-to-back OT losses to Michigan State (on the road) and Wisconsin (at home). In the overtime losses to Wisconsin and later to UCLA, the Illini blew double-digit leads. Then they had the same thing happen against Wisconsin again, this time in the Big Ten tournament. Despite all that, they secured a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
They have played like a No. 3 seed so far in two games, dispatching a good Penn team from the Ivy League, 105-70, scoring 65 points in the second half. David Mirkovic had a double-double, 29 points on 11-of-17 shooting, 4-of-7 from behind the arc, and he pulled down an Illinois tourney record 17 rebounds. It was his eighth double-double of the season moving ahead of Nick Anderson. He is the first Illinois player to record 20+ points and 15+ rebounds in an NCAA Tournament game since Anderson (24 points, 16 rebounds) in the 1989 Elite Eight vs. Syracuse (3/26/89). He also set an Illini record for most points by a freshman in a single game, set by Will Riley last season (22 points vs Xavier 3/21/25). Four other Illini were in double figures.
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The team shot well from the arc (50% for the game). They also exploited the inside, scoring 44 points in the paint! This was the more patient, looking for the “right matchup,” as Coach Underwood would later say, then exploiting it.
The Illini out-rebounded Penn 48-25, allowing Penn to grab only 7 offensive rebounds. The Illini had 20 offensive rebounds, resulting in 29 second-chance points.
The Illini (mostly Kylan Boswell) put on a fantastic defensive effort against Penn, holding scoring star TJ Power, averaging 16.8 PPG (he put up 44 points in the Ivy League championship game, vs. Yale), to just 6 points, including NONE in the second half.
It was more of the same vs No. 11 seed Virginia Commonwealth University.
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The Illini had 4 players in double figures, led by Andrej Stojakovic with 21 points. Tomislav Ivisic had a double-double with 14 points and 11 boards. Giving Illinois back-to-back games with a player notching a double-double. VCU hung with the Illini in the first half. The Illini lead was 12 at the 11:18 mark, VCU made 15-3 run to tie the game at the 5:02 mark. The Illini would finish the half with a 12-5 run (with the last 11 points from Stojakovic and take a seven-point lead into the locker room. Keaton Wagler hit a three to start the second half, and the Illini kept increasing the lead.
In these two games, the Illini looked like the January version, not the one that lost three games in OT after having a big lead. They looked confident, sure of themselves. Contributions from up and down the lineup. Their defense was unrelenting. Yes, I am going to temper that with the fact they were playing a 14-seed in Penn and an 11-seed in VCU. However, both of those programs presented different challenges and are good teams. Here is a breakdown of what I am talking about.
During the 12-game winning streak the Illini outscored opponents by an average of 22 points, had a +12-rebound margin, shot 37% from three, and outscored opponents in second chance points by an average of 16-9.
After the loss to Michigan State, they were only outscoring opponents by 7 points, had only a +2-rebound margin, and shot 31% from three and were 16-11 in second chance points.
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In two tournament games, they’re +28 in outscoring opponents, +19 in rebound advantage, Shooting 40% from three, and holding a 19-9 advantage in second chance points.
As the competition gets tougher — Illinois plays the 2-seed Houston Thursday at 9:05. Should they get past the Cougars, then they face the winner of Nebraska and Iowa. That is a definite advantage for the Illini in possibly facing two teams they know well and have beaten to get to the final four. Will it work out that way? Who knows.
A couple of quick notes:
It is possible that every team in the Final Four could be a Big Ten representative. Michigan State in the East, Illinois/Nebraska/Iowa in the South, Purdue in the West, and Michigan in the Midwest. How likely do you that will be?
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If not all, how many B1G teams move on to the Final Four? And who will it be?
In my opinion, this is the best chance the Illini have had in several years to make a Final Four. I would say probably a better than 60% chance they get there. Am I high or low? You tell me, thanks for reading.
