As we go through some of these statistical series it becomes important to occasionally go back and explain the whys and what fors for these numbers. Simply put, the more numbers we can use to demonstrate the difference between players the better. Essentially, we are looking the mathematics of situational baseball. The good news is that the Astros are playing good enough baseball where it matters again. The bad news is they have dug themselves another hole where they cannot afford missteps.
Friday night was a misstep of epic proportions. For some it was even a fireable offense. In the 8th inning, Joe Espada subbed Brice Matthews in for Taylor Trammel ostensibly to get better defense in left field. Bryan Abreu immediately gives up the tying run and we are left needing that at bat later in the game. So, Matthews had to hit with the bases loaded and one out. Given his speed, a strikeout was the only real negative probability. Since he strikes out 32 percent of the time, he obviously struck out. That single decision was baseball malpractice.
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Baseball is a game of probabilities. Every pitch and every situation sees the odds of success and failure change in the blink of an eye. A 1-0 count shifts to a 1-1 count. However, if ABS can shift that to a 2-0 count then the odds clearly change. Coaches and players must make split second decisions based on these odds. Even when the odds are in your favor you will often fail. Even if failure is predicted you sometimes succeed through happy happenstance.
A manager’s job is to put his team in a position where the odds of success are as high as possible. As much as we might love a manager like “Major League’s” Lou Brown, I would just as soon not have my manager rolling out phrases like, “I gotta hunch he’s due.” Coaches, gamblers, and even players don’t succeed without a healthy understanding of situations and what the highest percentage play is.
That brings us to bases per out. Obviously, this is just yet another number, but I believe it to be a pretty accurate one and descriptive one. No number explains everything. Nothing is ever that easy. However, it can explain a lot on both the pitching and hitting side of things. It is calculated by taking total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and divide it by the total number of outs. The league average is .663 and as we have seen in the outfield, very few Astros have met the average. Again, we will list the players from most outs to least outs.
|
TB |
BB/HBP |
SB |
Outs |
BPO |
|
|
113 |
25 |
0 |
174 |
.793 |
|
|
75 |
27 |
0 |
158 |
.646 |
|
|
62 |
20 |
1 |
133 |
.624 |
|
|
38 |
6 |
3 |
68 |
.691 |
|
|
30 |
2 |
0 |
60 |
.533 |
|
|
17 |
4 |
1 |
42 |
.524 |
Let’s put these numbers in perspective. Yordan Alvarez might very well lead the league in BPO. His BPO is well over 1.000. There is a pretty significant drop off from there. You can clearly see there are only three really above average hitters on this team according to BPO. Taylor Trammel counts as one for the moment, but he is likely to see a regression really soon. The resurgence of Jeremy Pena has helped considerably over the last week, but this is still a pretty shallow lineup.
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Mind you, Paredes is not far below average and one mini hot streak gets him above average. He has an OPS+ of 99 so he looks more or less average. Altuve obviously got off to the hot start, but faded in early May. Does he recalibrate himself and get back to what he was doing in the first couple of weeks of the season when he does come back? Anything is possible.
What this effectively means is that the Astros have several players that are interchangeable in terms of overall production. Shewmake and Allen are similar offensively if not in style, but results that matter. Mathews can also play on the infield and he is similar to them in results. These numbers are not predictive in nature, but they do help explain why managers sometimes make the decisions that they do. Unfortunately, it also highlights when they make the wrong ones.
When Altuve comes back, the decision of who to start will be simple. It is the decision of who to keep and who to drop that will become harder. As important as fielding is, this team does not have enough good bats to squander a spot to a fielding only player. However, looking at Matthews, Allen, and Shewmake right now is like looking at a group of siblings. They are not identical triplets. Each of them reach their BPO a little differently, but the results are all fairly similar.
So, it comes down to a decision. Do you want upside? Clearly, Matthews has more of that. Do you want positional flexibiity? Shewmake and Allen can play every infield position well. Matthews can play second well in addition to the outfield. He struggled in limited time at third and has not played short in the big leagues. Mathews also has options left and that is a pretty big deal. He has the look of a guy that needs everyday reps. Like Zach Cole before him, he just simply does not make enough contact yet to stick. Will he someday? Baseball history is littered with guys that take awhile to figure it out.
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The simple fact is that the Astros have played well enough (and other teams in the AL West have sputtered) to where their games in June matter. Development can and should happen, but it cannot happen at the big league level under those circumstances. Joe Espada and Dana Brown have to maximize every single ounce of good baseball they can out of this 40 man roster. They will need to pick their bench and bullpen carefully. One or two missteps will cause losses like Friday night. Those are the kinds of losses this team can ill afford right now.
