Road games are never easy in the Big 12 Conference, and Iowa State basketball will put its 10-game winning streak on the line when it heads over to Lubbock, Texas, to face the Texas Tech Red Raiders on Saturday afternoon.
The Cyclones (13-1, 3-0 Big 12 Conference) have beaten every conference opponent so far by a double-digit margin. They pulled away in the second half to defeat Utah, 82-59, in their previous outing on Tuesday night.
Texas Tech (11-3, 2-1) has regained momentum since dropping its Big 12 opener against UCF. The Red Raiders rebounded with back-to-back road wins over Utah and BYU. They closed out strong against the Cougars for a 72-67 win on Tuesday night.
Saturday’s game is scheduled to tip-off at 1 p.m. CT. It will also be available on ESPN.
Here are three things to watch for:
Texas Tech’s J.T. Toppin, Darrion Williams are potential NBA Draft prospects
There’s still plenty of basketball left, but the Red Raider tandem of junior Darrion Williams and sophomore J.T. Toppin have both appeared on various mock drafts.
They’re mostly projected to go somewhere in the second round, according to 2025 NBA mock drafts by ESPN and Bleacher Report. However, recent mock drafts by Fox Sports and CBS Sports suggest that Toppin could go mid-to-late first round.
Regardless of where they land, there’s no doubt this is a talented pair.
Toppin, a 6-foot-9, 225-pound forward, has made an immediate impact since transferring in from New Mexico. He shined for the Lobos last season, but he’s already proven that he’s capable of playing and starring at a higher level.
He brings elite athleticism, speed and bounce, paired with a 7-foot-2 wingspan. He’s a handful on both ends of the court, but he excels at finishing inside and grabbing rebounds. Toppin is averaging 17.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.7 blocks per game while shooting 57.0% overall. He boasts the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate in the country, according to KenPom, so Iowa State’s frontcourt will have to work hard to keep him off the glass.
As for Williams, he is a versatile player who has become more of a point-forward this season, as he has showcased his passing ability. The 6-foot-6 junior is averaging 16.4 points, 5.7 boards, 5.2 assists and 1.4 steals per game.
He is a solid perimeter defender who can score from nearly anywhere on the floor. It’s been a slow start from beyond the arc, where he’s shooting just 34.7% after posting a 45.8% clip from the three-point line last season, but he can still take-and-make threes. His playmaking has been a welcome addition for the Red Raiders this year.
Texas Tech impresses statistically, through analytics
The college basketball polls might not favor unranked Texas Tech, with just six AP votes and one coaches’ poll vote, but the Red Raiders are well-reflected through analytics.
Texas Tech is ranked No. 15 in the country by KenPom.
When diving into the analytics, the Red Raiders boast one of the top offenses in the country. They’re no slouch defensively, either, placing in the top 60 for defensive efficiency.
Texas Tech enters Saturday’s matchup ranked No. 7 in offensive efficiency. It has the second-highest effective field goal percentage in the nation at 59.1%. It also ranks in the top 15 for offensive rebounding rate (37.7%), three-point shooting (39.4%) and shooting percentage inside the arc (59.1%). The Red Raiders also take good care of the ball, with a 15.2% turnover rate that’s good for 44th in the country.
While Toppin and Williams are an impressive pair, also keep an eye on Chance McMillian, Kevin Overton and Elijah Hawkins.
McMillian, a 6-3 senior, averages 15.6 points per game and is the most efficient perimeter shooter in the country. He leads the nation with a 50.0% clip from long range.
Hawkins is a 5-foot-11 point guard who is feisty on both ends of the court. Although he’s primarily a facilitator with 5.6 assists per game, he dropped 22 points and shot 6-of-9 from beyond the arc in Texas Tech’s recent win over BYU.
Overton, a sophomore transfer from Drake, gives Texas Tech another scoring and rebounding option off the bench. He’s had an up-and-down year, but Overton has scored 17 or more points on five separate occasions this year.
Iowa State basketball’s mettle will be tested as it searches for first win at Lubbock since 2019
Iowa State last won at United Supermarkets Arena, the Red Raiders’ home court, during the 2018-19 season.
T.J. Otzelberger was still the head coach at South Dakota State and hadn’t even gone to UNLV yet.
Marial Shayok dropped 20 points while Michael Jacobson added a 14-point, 10-rebound double-double to help the Cyclones upset then-top 10-ranked Texas Tech, 68-64, on Jan. 16, 2019.
Since then, Iowa State has gone 0-4 in road trips to Texas Tech. The Cyclones lost those road games by an average margin of 15.5 points. Their latest road trip to Lubbock, on Jan. 30, 2023, was the closest of the bunch, though, when they lost 80-77 in overtime.
Iowa State played Texas Tech only at home last season and won 82-74. Four of those players who participated in that game are back − Keshon Gilbert, Milan Momcilovic, Tamin Lipsey and Curtis Jones − and all of them scored in double figures and combined for 56 points.
Don’t be fooled by Texas Tech being unranked, this will be a tough game. KenPom and ESPN both project Iowa State to be favorites, but just 51% favorites to win. Looking at the rest of the Cyclones’ schedule, only the road games at Kansas and Houston offer lower percentages for Iowa State to win, per KenPom.
Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State basketball vs. Texas Tech game preview: 3 things to watch
