Iowa State basketball fans had Saturday’s game circled on their calendars as soon as the schedules were unveiled, and rightfully so. The Cyclones had the better of the Houston Cougars in two out of three meetings last season, including a Big 12 Tournament championship game victory.
Entering this season, the hype and expectations were high. Now late into February, they only continue to build as both teams have been fixtures in the top 10 of the national rankings. This will be the only regular-season clash between the Cyclones and Cougars, so Saturday’s 1 p.m. game will be a gauge of where both teams stand heading down the homestretch.
No. 8 Iowa State (21-5, 11-4 Big 12 Conference) heads to Houston with a four-game winning streak. The Cyclones most recently defeated Colorado, 79-65, on Tuesday.
As for the fifth-ranked, conference-leading Cougars (22-4, 14-1), they are coming off a successful road trip in which they beat Arizona and Arizona State. Their 80-65 victory over the Sun Devils marked their 12th straight road win over a league opponent, marking a new Big 12 record for consecutive conference road wins.
Saturday’s game will be on ESPN. It will also be part of ESPN’s “College GameDay” show.
Here are three things to watch:
Iowa State basketball’s ability to take care of the ball will be critical
While Milan Momcilovic’s return has helped bolster the Cyclones offensively, they are still dealing with turnover issues.
Through the first 15 games of the season, Iowa State had only 8.9 turnovers per game.
Over the last 11 games, they are averaging 14.8 turnovers per game.
Iowa State is undoubtedly at its best when the ball is moving and it has a balanced attack, but limiting turnovers is also a key part of what made the Cyclones a top 10-ranked offense earlier in the season.
The Cyclones are still a formidable unit on the scoring end, ranking 18th in the country for offensive efficiency according to KenPom, but they cannot afford to have another high-turnover game against the likes of Houston.
Similar to Iowa State, the Cougars try to overwhelm teams with their physicality and unrelenting pressure. They force turnovers on the defensive end at the 11th-highest rate in the country. When paired with their ultra-efficient offense, Houston will be sure to capitalize on mistakes.
In conference play, Iowa State ranks 12th out of 16 Big 12 teams in turnover rate. The Cyclones committed 14 or more turnovers in five of the last eight games.
Houston basketball’s dominance on both sides of the ball
The Cougars are on track to finish in the top 20 nationally for offensive efficiency and top 10 for defensive efficiency for the fifth straight year in a row.
Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars won a Big 12 regular-season title last season and retained numerous starters and players from Houston’s 32-5 finish last year.
They’re looking to build upon last season, and with a 14-1 record in Big 12 play they’re the frontrunners for a regular-season title repeat. Arizona is two games back at 12-3; Iowa State and Texas Tech are 11-4.
Houston remains a defensive stalwart, entering Saturday’s game with the No. 3-ranked defense in the country. It has shown great improvement on the offensive end, boasting the seventh-ranked offense in the nation.
Defense and toughness have always been staples of Sampson-led teams. J’Wan Roberts, Joseph Tugler and Ja’Vier Francis headline a frontcourt that limits opponents to 43.4% inside the arc (fourth-best mark defensively in the country). They also have the fifth-highest block rate at 16.8%. In the Big 12, they boast the highest turnover rate, block rate, and second-highest rebounding percentage.
Offensively, they have a balanced attack led by L.J. Cryer and an arsenal of perimeter shooters. Houston excels at shooting 3-pointers, knocking them down at a 39.4% clip. It is also unrelenting on the offensive glass, with an offensive rebounding rate of 38.1%, the ninth-highest rate in the country. The ultra-efficient Cougars lead the Big 12 in offensive rebounding, 3-point shooting, turnover rate and have the third-highest effective field goal percentage (52.8%).
Houston’s old and new faces to know for Cyclones fans
Cryer and Emanuel Sharp lead a talented backcourt. The two-way guards are among the Cougars’ top producers. Cryer is averaging 14.5 points and 2.0 assists per game, while shooting 40.8% from long range. Meanwhile, Sharp is averaging 12.0 points, 1.4 steals and shooting 42.3% from deep.
Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan has made an immediate impact with his ability to facilitate and score. Uzan is averaging 10.3 points, 4.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game, while shooting 45.1% overall. Uzan has a 27:2 assist-to-turnover ratio over the last five games.
Returning guards Terrance Arceneaux and Mylik Wilson have been thriving in bigger roles in the rotation as secondary contributors.
The frontcourt is highlighted by Roberts, who brings plenty of toughness on both ends of the court. An All-Big 12 third-team selection last year, Roberts is averaging 11.6 points and a team-best 6.4 rebounds per game.
Tugler has emerged as a skilled shot-blocker. The 6-foot-8 forward is averaging 2.1 blocks per game and has been a defensive asset. Francis was a full-time starter last season, but continues to provide quality minutes as a rotational player.
Iowa State vs. Houston prediction
This will be a nice test for both teams heading into March. Iowa State has been rebuilding confidence and momentum since Momcilovic returned, and it gets a chance to make a big statement on the road.
Houston’s slow-and-steady half-court style of play will challenge Iowa State. If the Cyclones can keep the turnovers down, they can make it interesting, but the Cougars appear to be operating at another level right now. Houston 69, Iowa State 62
Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State vs. Houston prediction: 3 things to watch for Cyclones
