Let the madness begin. Third-seeded Iowa State men’s basketball embarks on its NCAA Tournament journey Friday with a first-round game against No. 14 seed Lipscomb.
The Cyclones have been the No. 3 seed on two other occasions in NCAA Tournament history.
The first was when they reached the Sweet 16 in 2014 after beating North Carolina Central and North Carolina before falling to eventual national champ UConn, 81-76. The Huskies became the first 7-seed to win a national title that season.
The following year, Iowa State earned a 3-seed once again, but got upset by 14-seed UAB in the opening round in a 60-59 heartbreaker.
This year’s Cyclones enter the NCAA Tournament with a 24-9 record.
Their opponent, 14th-seeded Lipscomb, is 25-9 this season. The Bisons earned a share of the Atlantic Sun regular-season title, splitting it with North Alabama. The teams met in the finals of the Atlantic Sun Tournament, where Lipscomb won 76-65 to claim the crown and the NCAA Tournament automatic bid.
This year marks Lipscomb’s second NCAA Tournament appearance, with the first coming in 2018. Lipscomb University is located in Nashville, Tennessee.
Friday’s game is scheduled to tip off at 12:30 p.m. CT at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee. It will be televised on TNT.
Here are three things to watch:
Atlantic Sun player of the year Jacob Ognacevic leads the Bisons
Iowa State’s Milan Momcilovic and coach T.J. Otzelberger aren’t the only ones having a homecoming trip.
Lipscomb senior Jacob Ognacevic, a native of Sheboygan, Wisconsin — located about an hour from Milwaukee — will command plenty of attention from Iowa State.
The 6-foot-8 stretch forward is a handful on offense and on the glass. Ognacevic was crowned Atlantic Sun Player of the Year after a career season in which he averaged 20.1 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 57.3% overall and 40.2% from 3-point range.
He scored 20 or more points in 11 of the last 13 games, while shooting better than 50% from the field.
Ognacevic is comfortable with pulling up from nearly anywhere on the court, and he is skilled at drawing fouls and converting from the free-throw line, where he shoots 79.8%.
The matchup between Ognacevic and Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson will be fun to watch.
Lipscomb loves 3-pointers and its balanced offense
All that recent experience of facing BYU twice in a nine-day stretch should help the Cyclones prepare for the Bisons, who also love to move the ball around the perimeter and attempt 3s behind their diverse arsenal of shooters.
Compared to the 2018 Lipscomb team that previously made the NCAA Tournament, this year’s Bisons are much more talented on the offensive end. Lipscomb enters the NCAA Tournament ranked No. 75 in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom.
Ognacevic is the primary catalyst, but they also have three other players averaging in double figures with Will Pruitt (13.2 points per game), Joe Anderson (12.5 ppg) and Gyasi Powell (11.6 ppg). All four of them are shooting better than 35% from beyond the arc.
As a team, the Bisons shoot 36.7% from long range (46th in the country), 56.7% inside the arc (21st) and they capitalize at the charity stripe, boasting the seventh-best free-throw shooting percentage in the nation at 79.6%.
Similar to BYU, Lipscomb takes 47.4% of its total shot attempts from 3-point range, just 0.9% away from the Cougars.
When looking at the scoring distribution, the Bisons also amass 38.1% of their points from the 3-point line, which is only 1.5% less than BYU this season.
Iowa State’s attention to detail when guarding the perimeter will be essential on Friday. The Cyclones cannot allow the Bisons to get into a groove from the 3-point line.
An eye on Tamin Lipsey’s effectiveness and Iowa State basketball’s rotation
There have been enough context clues over the last few weeks to determine what the starting five may look like and who’s first off the bench now that Keshon Gilbert is out for the remainder of the season.
Friday will also serve as a glimpse at Tamin Lipsey, who suffered a groin injury at the end of last Wednesday’s Big 12 Tournament second-round win over Cincinnati. Lipsey underwent warm-ups the following day, but he did not play in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinal loss to BYU.
His toughness and persistence is both unquestioned and admirable, as he’s played through a shoulder injury in the past and dealt with a fractured thumb for a chunk of this season. Otzelberger noted that Lipsey has been practicing and should be good to go for Friday’s game, but how effective will he be with a groin injury? How many minutes will they lean on him for?
Looking at the rest of the rotation and Cyclones’ lineup, how will the other players respond and step up now that they’re in the bright lights of March?
Lipscomb excels at taking care of the ball, boasting a 14.4% turnover rate (22nd in the country), but when it got a taste of high-major competition against Arkansas on Nov. 6, the Bisons buckled under the Razorbacks’ pressure and turned the ball over 19 times in a 76-60 loss.
Will Iowa State be able to crank up the pressure or run that high-energy, in-your-face defense as long as it wants to? It dialed back on traps and double-teams in the rematch with BYU, but that was also due to not having both Gilbert and Lipsey available. How will Iowa State approach it with Lipsey back on the floor?
Iowa State vs. Lipscomb prediction
Lipscomb is 0-2 against power-conference opponents, losing to Arkansas on Nov. 6 (76-60) and Kentucky on Nov. 19 (97-68).
The Cyclones and Bisons have one common opponent, Jackson State, which Lipscomb defeated 77-53 on Nov. 24. Iowa State beat Jackson State 100-58 on Dec. 8.
Expect Iowa State to avoid any upsets, but Lipscomb’s shooting should not be taken lightly and it will be imperative to clamp the Bisons at the 3-point line. Iowa State 77, Lipscomb 62
Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa State basketball vs Lipscomb prediction: March Madness preview
