As North Carolina officials assess the state of their basketball program in Hubert Davis’ fourth season, they only need to ask themselves one simple question.
Do they have one of the top-10 basketball coaches in the country or not?
If the Tar Heels believe they do, then Davis should get one more chance to fix a program that looks shockingly broken.
If they conclude that Davis isn’t a top-10 coach, then they need to make a change, they need to do it after this season, and they need to hire someone who fits in that category regardless of whether that person has any prior connection to the school.
Because that’s what North Carolina deserves. It’s not what North Carolina has.
What happened Saturday night in an 87-70 loss to Duke that was never competitive should be unacceptable for North Carolina under any circumstances. But it’s also not a one-off or a fluke or one bad game.
It’s a microcosm of a program that has fallen into the trap of believing that everything will be fine when your eyes and ears tell you a more uncomfortable truth. But will North Carolina be willing to see and hear it?
Davis, who is by most accounts a wonderful man in the truly important ways, became North Carolina’s head coach primarily for two reasons: Because he played under Dean Smith and because that’s what Roy Williams wanted after he retired in 2021.
It made sense. North Carolina is one of those programs that has historically really, really cared about its basketball coach being part of the family. Davis, who was an NBA player and TV commentator before joining the Tar Heels bench as an assistant, was simply the next in line.
And when he took North Carolina to the national title game in 2022 — beating Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski in his final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium and then again in the Final Four to end his career — it was a legendary run for which Tar Heel fans will forever be grateful.
But nobody, whether inside or outside the North Carolina fan base, needs to lie to each other about what that season was.
The Tar Heels, who were a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament, got hot at the right time and rode a crazy shotmaking streak from mercurial guard Caleb Love to the brink of a national championship before ultimately losing to Kansas.
It was almost a storybook ending. In the moment, it felt like validation for Davis, who had been questioned earlier that season when North Carolina looked like an NCAA bubble team.
But nearly three years later, we have a lot more data on the Tar Heels program under Davis.
It’s not pretty.
The next year, North Carolina was so dysfunctional — with largely the same team that made the championship game — that it turned down an NIT bid and ended its season 20-13.
Last year, the Tar Heels were one of college basketball’s most experienced teams and seemed to bounce back, going 17-3 in the ACC and getting a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But after an ACC tournament loss to NC State and a Sweet 16 loss to Alabama, it did not feel like a huge success.
And now this year, with the Tar Heels sitting at 13-10 overall and 6-5 in the ACC, it’s hard to see a path to the NCAAs for this team unless they win the conference tournament title.
That would be two out of four years for Davis missing the Big Dance. That’s just not good enough — not for arguably the best job in college basketball.
You can argue for Kansas or Kentucky or even Duke, but North Carolina basketball should not take a back seat to anyone and should not look for excuses when that standard isn’t being met.
Bad years can happen to anyone, but North Carolina cannot be in the business of basketball mediocrity and cannot accept missing NCAA tournaments every other season. Giving Davis a fifth year for any reason other than believing that he’s a top-10 coach in the country would be an admission that the university no longer considers its basketball job one of the best in all of college sports.
As much as Davis represents what North Carolina wants its program to be about and the generational continuity from Smith to Williams to another beloved alum, this is a business. You’re either good enough or you’re not. And given North Carolina’s tradition, its brand, its resources and its attractiveness to recruits, there is no reason for the program to tolerate being coached badly.
Unfortunately for Davis, that’s what’s happening on his watch. Nearly four years into his tenure, it’s fairly clear he isn’t a top-10 coach, a top-20 coach or a top-30 coach. So why would North Carolina allow that to continue?
Because he’s a really classy guy? Because he’s an alum? Because he made a national championship game? If that’s the standard, Bruce Weber, Ben Howland, Paul Hewitt and Mike Davis would have had job security for life. Alas, that’s not how the world works at programs that are serious about basketball.
North Carolina has a lot to think about over the next couple months. Maybe it’s time to aim a little higher. Maybe it’s time to admit that you don’t need to be a North Carolina alum to be a great coach. Maybe it’s time to get serious and stop with this ridiculous idea that being in the family is a prerequisite to coach this basketball team.
Is North Carolina serious? If Davis is back on the sideline next year, it won’t merely be fair to ask that question, it will be necessary.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hubert Davis’ future: How serious is North Carolina basketball?
