Justin Boone’s Fantasy Football Fades: Patrick Mahomes, George Pickens and more players to avoid at ADP for 2026

Fantasy football managers tend to focus on the exciting breakout candidates or the deep sleepers who could take their game to another level and lead teams to a championship. However, it’s just as important to avoid the players who could implode during the season and cause you headaches every week when setting your lineup.

Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2026 NFL season

To help you steer clear of any disappointing fantasy picks, here are the players I’m passing on at their current ADPs, per FantasyPros.

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

ADP: QB11, 90th overall

Consider this another reminder that real-life football and fantasy football don’t always equate.

Mahomes remains one of the best quarterbacks in the league and finished as the fourth-highest scoring fantasy QB on a per game basis in 2025. The bounce-back campaign came after a couple of down seasons where the Chiefs’ franchise passer fell to the low-end QB1 range as the QB11 in 2024 and QB12 in 2023.

However, the rushing ceiling that boosted his fantasy production last season — including career highs with 422 rushing yards and five touchdowns — is likely to be much lower coming off a torn ACL suffered in Week 15. We’ve seen quarterbacks coming off ACL tears be far more hesitant to use their legs the next year, leading to decreased stats on the ground.

The two-time MVP, who will turn 31 in September, appears on track to be available for the opener and there’s no doubt the two-time MVP will find a way to keep the Chiefs offense moving until he’s fully regained his pre-injury form.

Unfortunately, Mahomes’ fantasy projection for 2026 doesn’t do justice to the future Hall of Famer.

The arrival of RB Kenneth Walker III will bring balance to the offense and reduce the need for Mahomes to use his legs as frequently. With less rushing attempts and so many good quarterbacks to choose from in fantasy, Mahomes is a tough sell inside the top 100 picks.

Running Backs

Bucky Irving, Buccaneers

ADP: RB23, 59th overall

Irving is a tough click in fantasy drafts, so it’s not surprising his ADP has steadily fallen throughout the offseason.

This comes after an injury-riddled campaign where he suited up for just seven games while sharing the Bucs’ backfield with Rachaad White and, to a lesser extent, Sean Tucker.

Any hope that Irving would get a bigger workload in 2026 was dashed when the team signed Kenneth Gainwell in free agency and re-signed Tucker. The result is a backfield that’s just as crowded as it was last year, with Gainwell representing an even bigger threat to Irving’s touches.

Gainwell was identified as a standout in OTAs, with head coach Todd Bowles describing him as the 1B to Irving’s 1A in an expected committee.

We already saw Gainwell suppress the value of someone ahead of him on the depth chart last year in Pittsburgh. Serving as an overqualified No. 2 option, he limited Jaylen Warren’s numbers while also starring when he was given starter’s snaps.

In addition to finishing with over 1,000 scrimmage yards and eight total TDs, Gainwell posted stat lines of 134 yards and two TDs, 105 yards and two TDs, 122 yards, and 126 yards in the four games where he saw at least 15 touches for the Steelers. If you’re not worried about Gainwell infringing on Irving’s upside, you should be.

This doesn’t mean Irving can’t earn a spot in fantasy lineups this year, but it does raise serious concerns about his ceiling. When you combine the presence of Gainwell and Tucker with the fact that Irving is a former Day 3 back who has dealt with durability issues, it pushes Irving down into the RB3 range in my projections.

Wide Receivers

George Pickens, Cowboys

ADP: WR10, 25th overall

There’s no denying Pickens was outstanding in his first year with the Cowboys, turning in a 92-catch, 1,420-yard, nine-touchdown campaign that saw him go from the WR29 in preseason ADP to finishing as the WR6 in fantasy points per game.

Even so, we can acknowledge that Pickens’ final stats were helped by CeeDee Lamb missing a month in the first half of the season due to injury. During that time, Pickens was the No. 1 scoring fantasy receiver overall. Once Lamb returned in Week 7, Pickens was the WR12 in fppg the rest of the way.

Regardless, Pickens has a chance to produce low-end WR1 numbers once again, but there are some reasons to be worried about his floor.

The 25-year-old will be the only star playing on the franchise tag this season, an outcome that definitely can’t sit well with the mercurial wideout, whose inconsistent effort was one of the reasons he was traded by the Steelers.

There is also the emergence of No. 3 receiver Ryan Flournoy to contend with, following a 40-catch, 475-yard, four-touchdown stat line in 2025. Though he’s not a threat to Pickens’ role, he does add another set of reliable hands to the passing attack and was regularly mentioned as a riser by everyone in attendance at Cowboys OTAs.

Meanwhile, Dallas’ offense could see some natural regression moving forward. The defense underwent a massive overhaul in terms of personnel and should be far more competitive this season. That might create fewer shootouts and less opportunities for Pickens and the passing game.

None of those variables are enough to scare you off Pickens by themselves, but when you factor them in with his current ADP at the Round 2-3 turn, it makes for a risky fantasy pick that I’d rather not roll the dice on.

Malik Nabers, Giants

ADP: WR14, 33rd overall

Let me make one thing clear right away — I am a huge Malik Nabers supporter.

A healthy version of Nabers would be in the mix to join the group of elite fantasy receivers that includes Ja’Marr Chase, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua in the first half of Round 1.

Sadly, we’re not getting that version of Nabers any time soon due to ACL and meniscus tears.

Despite suffering his knee injury in September, the Giants’ star had to do one month of “pre-hab” before undergoing surgery, which didn’t occur until the end of October.

Nabers told reporters at locker cleanout that he wasn’t sure he’ll be ready for the opener and that his target date is when his body feels ready. Head coach John Harbaugh didn’t inspire confidence in May, when he didn’t provide a clear return timeline and referred to the situation as “not a simple knee injury.”

At this point, I’m projecting Nabers to start the season on the PUP list and miss at least the opening month. Even when he returns, he might not be back to form right away.

On top of it all, he’ll have more target competition than past years, with the additions of Isaiah Likely, Darnell Mooney, Malachi Fields, Odell Beckham Jr., Calvin Austin and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

When healthy, Nabers has top-five upside at his position, but the uncertainty around his recovery doesn’t make me interested in the injury discount that comes with his third-round ADP. I’d rather look elsewhere for a starting WR in 2026.

Tight End

Sam LaPorta, Lions

ADP: TE8, 82nd overall

LaPorta is a very solid tight end and a decent mid-range fantasy starter, but he no longer carries the upside we witnessed early in his career.

While he broke out as a rookie with 86 receptions, 889 yards and 10 touchdowns, that occurred in a Lions’ offense that only had one strong receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown. Jahmyr Gibbs was still a rookie and Jameson Williams hadn’t emerged yet.

The target competition in Detroit has gotten tougher by the season, with St. Brown and Gibbs reaching superstar status, Williams turning into a very dangerous No. 2 option and Isaac TeSlaa arriving as a playmaker and red-zone threat.

We also need to put an asterisk next to LaPorta’s TE1 overall fantasy finish from 2023. It was the only time the No. 1 fantasy tight end averaged less than 12 fantasy points per game since 2016, with LaPorta coming in at 11.6.

He hasn’t even come close to those numbers the last two years, averaging 9.0 fppg in 2024 and 10.5 fppg through the first 10 games of 2025 before a lingering back injury eventually sent him to injured reserve when he required surgery.

Though he should be ready for Week 1, back issues can be tricky and can sometimes pop up unexpectedly and cause problems.

The real issue with LaPorta’s fantasy outlook is the increased target competition, which will prevent him from challenging for a spot among the elite performers at the position.

That makes me much more inclined to spend up for a top-five TE, chase the injury discount George Kittle or go after a breakout candidate (Dalton Kincaid, Likely, Chig Okonkwo).

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