MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 308 co-main event between Khamzat Chimaev and former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker.
Khamzat Chimaev UFC 308 preview
Staple info:
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Record: 13-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC
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Height: 6’2″ Age: 30 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75″
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Last fight: Decision win over Kamaru Usman (Oct. 21, 2023)
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Camp: ADMA Academy (Abu Dhabi)
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Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
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Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ National champion in freestyle wrestling (SE)
^ Won multiple years and weight divisions
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 7 KO victories
+ 5 submission victories
+ 8 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking and footwork
^ Solid jab from both stances
+ Favors front kicks from open stance
+ Superb wrestling ability
^ Offensively and defensively
+ Excellent transitional grappling
^ Good positional awareness and punishing process
Robert Whittaker UFC 308 preview
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Record: 27-7 MMA, 17-5 UFC
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Height: 6’0″ Age: 33 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 73.5″
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Last fight: Knockout win over Ikram Aliskerov (June 22, 2024)
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Camp: Gracie Jiu-jitsu Smeaton Grange (Australia)
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Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
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Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Former UFC middleweight champion
+ Hapkido and karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Australian National Wrestling Championships gold medal
+ 11 knockout victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good footwork and distance management
^ Quick blitzes and deceptive tempo changes
+ Accurate jabs and hooks
^ Coming forward or off the counter
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Improved overall grappling
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker point of interest: Straight shooters
The co-main event for UFC 308 features an important matchup between two top-ranked middleweights who are no strangers to operating off of linear offense.
Despite coming from a wrestling base, Khamzat Chimaev appears to be comfortable striking from both stances.
The Chechen fighter can fire off snappy jabs from either side, which, in turn, help him follow up with power shots.
Unless his opponent carries a decent grappling pedigree, Chimaev usually wastes little time extending striking exchanges before looking to change his level and wrestle. However, in recent outings, we’ve seen Chimaev play a bit more with open-stance looks on the feet.
Whether he’s throwing his favored front kick or looking to line up a wicked right hand, Chimaev seems to be gaining a taste for open-stance affairs. That said, Chimaev’s skills don’t exactly shine through in the defensive department, so the 30-year-old will need to make sure he’s respecting what’s coming back at him this Saturday.
Enter Robert Whittaker.
Coming from a traditional martial arts base, Whittaker has developed into one of the most unique striking stylists at 185 pounds.
Using a combination of speed, accuracy and a fluid economy of movement, the Australian will deceptively blitz off different angles. Like many karate-based strikers, Whittaker will feint or show a certain speed to draw his opponent into a false sense of security, only to disrupt the perceived timing with off-beat strikes.
As we’ve seen in multiple fights, Whittaker often will assert himself through rear-legged front kicks that he uses to launch himself into variations of left hooks and shifting overhand shots. The former champ also has no issue when it comes to sticking to his fundamentals, building offense off of deceptive jabs and feints.
That said, Whittaker is not beyond being taxed for his sometimes low-handed approach and will need to be on his best behavior – particularly early.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker breakdown: Winning the wrestling
Considering the arguable crux of Chimaev’s game, winning the wrestling will remain paramount for both parties.
Wrestling since the age of five, Chimaev has seemingly adapted to the grappling arts like second nature. From a lightning-fast shot to incredible wherewithal within the clinch, Chimaev seems to have it all from a wrestling perspective.
The 30-year-old displays a lot of the freestyle (and even Greco) looks that you would associate with his part of the world, yet also demonstrates a lot of the positional rides that traditionally come easier to American folkstyle wrestlers. And when Chimaev took the back of Li Jingliang at UFC 267, the Chechen fighter showed off some very competent jiu-jitsu to close to show via rear-naked choke.
Rewatching Khamzat Chimaev’s first amateur MMA fight and totally forgot about the makeshift playpen full of children cage-side who ended up getting a front row seat for this finish (*note the youngest girl cheering): pic.twitter.com/2XT9d0IWul
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) October 1, 2020
From early in his regional career to his more recent battle with Gilbert Burns, Chimaev has shown solid submission and wrestling defense in multiple scenarios. Whether someone is looking for Chimaev’s legs or attempting to re-guard, the product from the Allstars Training Center typically gives his opposition very little to work with – all while staying busy with offense of his own.
That said, Whittaker has proven to be much more difficult to control than many presumed he would when initially moving up to 185 pounds.
Aside from the fact that Whittaker’s footwork makes it difficult for his opponents to set up their shots, the Australian also shows the small technical intricacies that make him hard to ground or hold down when grasped.
For example, while most fighters are reliant on more traditional defenses such as sprawls or battles for under-hooks, they typically end up losing out to superior grapplers since these defensive tactics involve a commitment to contact (which in turn begets more grappling).
Whereas Whittaker, though capable of using those defenses, does not rely on them. Instead, “The Reaper” prefers to head off takedown attempts at the pass.
Already possessing a strong base and balance, Whittaker’s hip and grip awareness also have improved through the years.
Not only does Whittaker utilize grip breaks and wrist controls, but the 33-year-old is also disciplined about consistently circling out to his opponent’s weak side, which helps dissuade re-shots and takedown chain adjustments from his foes. Even Romero had difficulty grasping or chaining off his initial attempts due to Whittaker’s persistence to fight hands.
What is even more impressive is Whittaker’s ability to go from thwarting takedown attempts to striking off the breaks (which will also likely keep Chimaev honest in exchanges with him).
Still, if Whittaker does find himself on the bottom in this fight, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will need to be extra careful with his propensity to look for underhook getups given Chimaev’s front-choke acumen.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker odds
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the Chechen fighter, listing Chimaev -250 and Whittaker +198 via FanDuel.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker prediction, pick
Between the bookmakers loving undefeated fighters to the promotional hype that’s been put on Chimaev, seeing him installed as a moderate favorite doesn’t shock me in the slightest.
Speculation about his health aside, Chimaev is absolute hell on wheels for the first 5-7 minutes of a fight.
However, after that point, the prospect-turned-contender starts to look incredibly human. And as Arnold Schwarzenegger said in the film PREDATOR, “If it bleeds, we can kill it.”
Chimaev may not have been healthy for his last outing opposite Kamaru Usman, but that doesn’t change the fact that we’ve yet to see Chimaev convincingly win a third frame, much less a fourth or fifth.
Whereas Whittaker, who is very familiar with five-round affairs, traditionally does well over 25 minutes due to his consistent output and ability to adjust.
Add in the fact that Whittaker usually excels against grapple-first fighters, and I can’t help but side with the more proven product at plus money.
I’ll officially pick Whittaker to survive the early storms en route to a stoppage via strikes that come late into Round 3.
Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker start time, where to watch
As the co-main event, Chimaev and Whittaker are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 3:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 308.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Robert Whittaker prediction, pick: Will ex-champ hand rising star first loss?
