The Buffalo Sabres are facing massive pressure to at least qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time in 15 years. But there's intense competition for each and every standings point teams can generate, and the Sabres' don't benefit by playing in the Atlantic Division — the most competitive division, in our estimation, in the league. And Buffalo is going to have to get a leg up on more than a few Atlantic rival teams, Tampa Bay included if they really intend to claim a Cup anytime soon.
In the next day, we'll be finishing up this series on the Sabres' chances against Atlantic teams when we focus on the Toronto Maple Leafs. But in his file, we're talking about a team that is probably a playoff team, but that may find itself sliding past the Sabres in the standings — the Tampa Bay Lightning:
What's the state of the rivalry between the Sabres and Lightning? And what's likely to happen when these two teams two teams square off this year? These are a couple key questions we've addressed below.
BUFFALO SABRES VS. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
NEW LIGHTNING PLAYERS: Pontus Holmberg, LW
2024-25 SERIES: Sabres 1-2-0, Lightning 2-0-1
2025-26 GAMES AGAINST EACH OTHER: February 3 at Tampa Bay; February 28 at Tampa Bay; March 8 at Buffalo: April 6 at Buffalo
CAN THE SABRES BEAT THIS TEAM? The Lightning played well against the Sabres in three games last season, staying undefeated in regulation time in all three games. And this will mark the second consecutive season in which the Sabres and Tampa Bay don't play each other until the second half of the regular season.
Indeed, four games in two months near the end of the year should make for some compelling hockey. If things go well for the Sabres, they can challenge for fourth place in the Atlantic. And if things don't go well for the Lightning, they could slip out of their second-place finish last season and finish in fourth spot for the second time in three years. That may be all the regression needed by a team to allow the Sabres to vault over them and into a post-season position.
We're certainly not suggesting Tampa Bay will completely collapse next season. There's too much talent there to not be a playoff team. But again, only two years ago, the Bolts finished in fourth spot in the Atlantic with a 45-29-8 record; Tampa Bay climbed two standings spots the following season — last season — but they posted only two additional wins in 2024-25. And they haven't done much of anything in terms of trades or free-agency to improve their attack to begin next season.
As that reality settles in, you can see why the margin for error in this Atlantic Division is about as thin as it gets, and that if the Lightning aren't careful — or if the injury bug tears into Tampa Bay's lineup in a major way — the Bolts could find themselves on the outside of the playoff picture looking in.
The teams get a fourth game against each other next season, and that final game will come when the Sabres play their fifth-to-last game of the regular season. And both of the two teams' final two games against one another will take place in Buffalo, within about one month of each other near season's end, so we're looking at a few possibilities for that final game:
Possibility Number One: The Sabres Have Vaulted Over Tampa Bay
This possibility would see Buffalo fans rocking and rolling through the arena, and Tampa Bay in a place it's rarely been — behind the Sabres in the standings. Buffalo would need to be nearly perfect to be much better than the Lightning. So we're not saying it's a probability. But a possibility? Sure.
Possibility Number Two: The Sabres And Lightning Are Both Good, And Still One Of Them Aren't In The Playoffs
This possibility would also provide tons of drama. Both fan bases would have meaningful hockey to enjoy down the stretch, and they'd be raising the bar for Atlantic teams as other Atlantic teams make their own push for post-season action.
Possibility Number Three: The Lightning Are Well Ahead Of Buffalo, And The Sabres Are Basically Out Of It
Let's not focus too much on this possibility. But suffice to say, Western New York hockey fans are going to be irate if the playoff drought reaches 15 years. And that goes double if the Sabres don't even come close to challenging for a playoff berth. The potential for it getting really ugly is considerable for the Sabres, but if they can take three of four against the Lightning, suddenly they could conceivably be a team that rises higher in the standings.
The two teams won't see one another until February, but let's never forget the NHL trade deadline's impact on the standings: teams like the Bolts and Sabres could look considerably different between their games prior to the deadline and the games they play after the deadline.
The Lightning have a chance to contend for top spot in the Atlantic, but if the hockey gods aren't kind to them, that could spell the difference between missing and making the playoffs. And Tampa Bay wouldn't be the first team to crumble under the weight of expectation. There's a way this all lines up in a row in the Sabres' favor to rise as high as third in the Atlantic, but it's going to take just about every element clicking at the right time. And a team like Tampa Bay will have to fall off to open up that spot in the division.
And if that doesn't happen for Buffalo, we're most likely going to see the Lightning finishing ahead of them, in the regular-season and playoffs, as is usually the case.
