In baseball, we talk about the grind of a 162 game season, and how you can never get too high or too low. Those words usually ring true across a long season. However, seasons can still crumble very quickly, and that is exactly what happened to the Nats last week.
Last Monday, the Nats were coming off a monster series win against a fellow Wild Card contender in the D-Backs. Now, it was on to the last place Blue Jays. The best offense in baseball would be facing the best pitcher in Nats history in Max Scherzer, but a very diminished version of Mad Max. It was supposed to be a passing of the torch night. However, since the Nats let a laboring Scherzer off the hook, things have gone off the rails.
Since last Monday, the Nats are 1-7, going from one game back of the NL Wild Card to 5.5 games back. Such a promising season has gone so wrong so very quickly. Even if this is the beginning of a limp towards the finish line, it is important to remember that this season is still very likely to be a success. Key pieces such as CJ Abrams, James Wood and Cade Cavalli took major steps. They also got great production out of Curtis Mead, Luis Garcia Jr. and Foster Griffin before selling high on that trio.
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That does not make this collapse out of playoff contention any less painful though. The most ironic thing is that the Nats greatest strength was the thing that did them in this weekend. Sure, the pitching and defense has not been stellar, but the biggest reason for this collapse has been the lack of offense, particularly with runners in scoring position.
They have been truly dreadful with ducks on the pond lately and it is why this offense has only scored more than 4 runs once in the last 8 games. Guys like James Wood and Keibert Ruiz picked bad times to start slumping. The offense has also really felt the loss of Curtis Mead, who was arguably the best clutch hitter on the team.
The slide started against the Blue Jays, but it was the Braves series that really did them in. These Nats have been a great road team all season, but they laid an egg in the 4 game set at Truist Park. The experienced Braves totally outplayed the Nats, who did not look ready for the moment. It was a comprehensive beatdown.
As the noise surrounding the trade deadline grew, this Nats team just seemed to shrink. The now departed Griffin basically admitted that the past week has been tough on him with the trade rumors surrounding him. It sure seemed like he was not the only one struggling with that pressure.
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When the Nats needed to rise to the occasion, they buckled. That is why Paul Toboni ended up selling. He can talk all he wants about how he believes in this team, but he threw in the towel at the deadline. With how the last week went, it is tough to blame him. For Toboni to buy, this team needed to show something and they did not.
Based on this quote, this was clearly a tough decision for Toboni, and he wanted to wait as long as he could to see which direction he would go. However, this past week made the decision less difficult. It was clear that Toboni knew that this organization needed more pitching depth and with the team falling out of the race, selling off pieces was the way to accomplish this.
I do think Toboni envisions this team competing for the playoffs next season (assuming there is one). Most of the pieces he got back in these returns are players that can contribute in 2027. A lot of them are role players, especially in the bullpen, but that is exactly what the Nats need. People have been asking what this season would be like if the Nats had an average bullpen. With this stockpile of arms, Toboni is trying to build that average, and eventually very good bullpen.
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When the dust settled, the Nats got a lot deeper on the mound as an organization. However, they lost several of the main drivers of what made them great this season. Abrams and Wood remain, but that supporting cast is very diminished. Toboni is betting that he can continue to develop bats the way he did with Garcia and Mead.
The first game after the deadline showed us what the reality of the rest of this year may look like. This offense is not as explosive, but the bullpen sure is leaky. Derek Hill‘s grand slam was the final nail in the coffin of the Nats playoff hopes. It was another bullpen meltdown combined with a lack of fight after they fell behind, as well as plenty of missed chances.
This season was a step in the right direction, but the Nats are going to have to build off this. That means ownership and the front office will need to be aggressive this offseason. With ownership, I am not that confident in this. Hopefully they spend, but I will have to see it to believe it.
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It has been a mostly fun season, but we got a real reality check last week. This team still needs to make plenty of improvements and the core players still need another year to mature. Hopefully this season was just the start of something special because it has been the best season of Nats baseball in a while.
