The Brian Kelly era of LSU football ended on a sour note last fall. LSU began the year ranked in the top-10, eyeing the College Football Playoff. The Tigers were ranked in the top five after a 4-0 start, but it didn’t take long to fall apart.
A sputtering offense led to an October collapse and Kelly was fired after LSU was blown out by Texas A&M in Tiger Stadium and fell to 5-3.
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Kelly arrived in Baton Rouge as an accomplished coach. He’s won games at nearly every level of the sport, rising to prominence as a D-II coach before working up through the FBS level. He led Notre Dame to multiple playoff appearances.
There were times when Kelly’s LSU program appeared to be trending up. Kelly won 10 games in 2022, his first year, which included an upset win over Alabama and a trip to the SEC title. In 2023, LSU had a record-setting offense, but a porous defense held the Tigers back.
After back-to-back double-digit win seasons to begin his LSU tenure, Kelly’s program hit a wall. LSU has since hired Lane Kiffin and optimism has returned in Baton Rouge, but let’s take a look back on the Kelly era, looking at the “What-Ifs?”
What if Brian Kelly retained the 2021 defensive staff?
When Brian Kelly got to LSU, he cleaned house. That’s not unusual for a head coach taking over a rebuilding program, but Kelly stripped the machine to its parts, practically firing everyone. That included the entire defensive staff.
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Daronte Jones and Blake Baker served as co-defensive coordinators in 2021, with Corey Raymond leading the secondary. 2021 was a rough year for the Tigers, but the defense began to improve down the stretch. It was one of the SEC’s best units that November.
Still, Kelly was determined to bring in his own guy. Kelly landed on Matt House, who had SEC experience from his time at Kentucky and spent time on NFL coaching staffs. House did a respectable job in 2022, coordinating a defense that won the SEC West title. It all fell apart in 2023, when LSU had one of the worst, if not the worst, defenses in program history.
LSU wasted an elite offense led by Heisman-winning QB Jayden Daniels. With even an average defense, LSU competes for a national title in 2023.
It’s hard to say Kelly should have kept Baker and Jones. It was a completely respectable decision at the time and a head coach shouldn’t be faulted for bringing in his own DC, but if Kelly had relied on the defensive staff that was already there, things may have gone differently.
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Kelly ended up bringing Baker and Raymond back ahead of the 2024 season. Kiffin didn’t make the same mistake Kelly did, retaining both.
What if Mike Denbrock stayed at LSU?
Oct 21, 2023; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; Army Black Knights head coach Jeff Monken talks with LSU Tigers tight ends coach Mike Denbrock after a game at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-USA TODAY Sports
After the 2023 season, LSU OC Mike Denbrock was a hot commodity. First, Texas A&M came calling. Denbrock turned the Aggies down and signed an extension with LSU. Before the ink even dried, Denbrock was the target of Notre Dame’s OC search. Denbrock didn’t say no this time and he was off to South Bend, a place where he worked under Kelly before.
Different tales have been told about Denbrock’s LSU exit. Some have suggested LSU didn’t fight that hard to keep him, given Kelly’s high opinion of LSU QB coach Joe Sloan. With Denbrock gone, Sloan was promoted to offensive coordinator.
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LSU felt good about Sloan leading the way. He had playcalling experience from his time at Louisiana Tech and had just developed Jayden Daniels into a Heisman winner. A bright young coach ready to run an SEC offense.
There were hiccups, though. LSU’s offense took a massive step back in 2024 after the loss of Daniels and star wideouts Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. LSU’s run game dipped and the Tigers missed having an elite playmaker on the outside.
Sloan kept his job and LSU ran it back in 2025, but the results were even worse. LSU’s offense was near the bottom of the SEC and Sloan, along with Kelly, was fired midseason.
Had Denbrock stayed at LSU, we would have seen a much better offense in 2024 and 2025. Denbrock is a competent run game designer, an issue that plagued LSU in Kelly’s final two years.
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What if Julian Sayin signed with LSU?
Julian Sayin was a QB phenom coming out of California in 2024. Several big-name programs were vying for his commitment, including LSU. Sayin eventually signed with Alabama, but only stayed a few weeks due to the retirement of legendary head coach Nick Saban. Sayin hit the portal and landed at Ohio State. He was the Buckeyes starter in 2025, leading OSU to the playoffs.
LSU was a serious contender for Sayin’s services. Kelly had recruited Sayin while at Notre Dame and Sayin was interested when Kelly took the job in Baton Rouge.
If LSU had landed the phenom passer, the Tigers would have picked up momentum heading into the 2024 season, even with Nussmeier set to lead the way. It may not have altered the on-field results, especially right away, but the vibes would have been higher.
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And that leads us to our next QB miss…
What if Bryce Underwood didn’t flip to Michigan?
The Sayin miss quickly became moot as LSU emerged as the top school for No. 1-rated prospect Bryce Underwood. Viewed as a game-changing QB with a cannon for an arm and elite athleticism, Underwood was supposed to be LSU’s QB of the future and committed to the Tigers in January of 2024.
But Michigan didn’t give up on the Michigan native. The Wolverines kept pushing, widely believed to be throwing bigger NIL deals Underwood’s way. Eventually, the QB decided he couldn’t turn down Michigan and flipped to UM less than a month before signing day.
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Underwood’s flip was a wake-up call to LSU. The Tigers needed to be more competitive in the NIL frontier.
If Underwood comes to LSU, fans would have been more forgiving of LSU’s mediocre 2024 and 2025 seasons. Perhaps Kelly could have sold the Tigers on the future with a five-star QB and held onto his job for another year.
What if LSU took the transfer portal seriously in 2024?
Underwood’s flip fired up LSU’s NIL machine and the Tigers put together enough money to land college football’s No. 1-ranked transfer portal class in 2025. That came as a surprise to some, because a year earlier, Kelly made it a point to say LSU wasn’t interested in buying players.
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LSU’s 2024 transfer portal class was lackluster. Despite losing a chunk of production from the 2023 squad, LSU did not go after proven veterans in the portal. LSU only signed one top-100 transfer, per On3, and it was WR CJ Daniels, ranked No. 100.
What if LSU had given Nussmeier an Evan Stewart or Matthew Golden at WR? What if the defense had Keon Sabb or Kamari Ramsey at safety? Perhaps the Tigers could have used a Jabbar Muhammad or AJ Harris at cornerback.
LSU had the parts to make the 12-team playoff in 2024 if the Tigers had spent in the transfer portal. Nussmeier was one of the SEC’s better QBs, and he was playing behind a line filled with NFL talent. It’s hard to find QBs and OL in the portal, but there are plenty of wide receivers and defensive veterans that can be the difference between making the playoff or sitting at home.
This article originally appeared on LSU Wire: LSU football: Five biggest “What-Ifs” of the Brian Kelly era
