INDIANAPOLIS — As the NFL scouting combine spun down Sunday night and moving trucks began loading the remnants of the event, a sizable slice of free agency felt as if it was solidly unpacked.
Specifically: Quarterback Malik Willis. The mystery salary figure that will take to sign him. And finally, the destination where he’ll be starting in 2026.
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Talking with a prominent league source Monday morning — who will be involved in this offseason’s quarterback market and has been part of several prominent QB negotiations over several decades — it felt as if a pecking order for the Willis chase had emerged over the course of combine week.
“I think it will be Arizona, Miami and Pittsburgh in the weeds, depending on what happens with Aaron Rodgers,” the source said. “The Jets, too.”
And the contract?
“Two years at 50 [million], with $25 to $35 million guaranteed — probably closer to the $35 million.”
Malik Willis, pictured after a Lambeau Leap in late December, is looking at a hefty raise this month. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
(Patrick McDermott via Getty Images)
Of course, all of those potential destinations — aside from the Jets — have some sort of contingency to work out with their 2025 starting quarterback. The Arizona Cardinals and Miami Dolphins will likely have to release Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa, respectively, in the coming days. And the Pittsburgh Steelers will either have to get some kind of commitment (or de-commitment) from Aaron Rodgers about next season — or simply move on without having the necessary clarity. The Dolphins and Cardinals will also have to do some salary cap and roster gymnastics in the coming days to absorb the dead cap charges associated with Murray and Tagovailoa.
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The rub for each team:
Arizona — The Cardinals can make a contract work for Willis and have some high-end familiarity. General manager Monti Ossenfort was the director of player personnel for the Tennessee Titans when that franchise drafted Willis in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur is the younger brother of Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, whose scheme and coaching revived Willis as a starting quarterback candidate. And Arizona’s offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, was on Green Bay’s staff last season as a defensive analyst. There’s little the Cardinals won’t know about Willis’ makeup or what made him successful in his limited starts for the Packers. Arizona also already has a surrounding foundation that is attractive, including first-team All-Pro tight end Trey McBride, and wideouts Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson.
Miami — The Dolphins have their own head coach and front-office ties to Willis, with new head coach Jeff Hafley having served as the Packers’ defensive coordinator last season, and new general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan having served in a multitude of front-office roles in Green Bay dating to 2004.
While the Dolphins also have some offensive talent on their roster, the offloading of Tagovailoa is going to put the franchise in the precarious position of having to either trade or release some players. They may also have to hold off on some contract extensions or get creative with deal structures to get beyond an NFL-record $99.2 million dead cap charge that is expected to be split between the 2026 and 2027 seasons. In both the respects of the roster and financial pliability, the Dolphins have an uphill climb.
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Pittsburgh — Everyone is waiting on Rodgers, but it’s worth noting that new head coach Mike McCarthy still has friends in Green Bay’s building and certainly has the ability to get a handle on Willis beyond the game tape. A $35 million guarantee might be a bit of a stretch for ownership, which hasn’t exactly been wildly loose with cash commitments at the quarterback spot since the end of the Ben Roethlisberger era. But part of the Willis and Steelers buzz at the combine was two fold: McCarthy’s age (62) and his veteran rosters strap him with a win-now task. He’s also tasked with finding and developing a young quarterback simultaneously. If Rodgers returns, that’s a two-player balance for McCarthy. But if Willis is signed, it’s realistically the only QB option on the open market who can accomplish winning and grooming all in one player.
New York Jets — This is an every-option-on-the-table franchise when it comes to the quarterback spot this offseason. With Fernando Mendoza out of reach, the Jets really have no other choice when it comes to a potential long-term starter. Landing Willis would help the Jets take a major step in their reboot now, but it might take paying Willis more than a two-year, $50 million deal (and $35 million guarantee) to get it done. Team owner Woody Johnson threw last year’s starter, Justin Fields, under the bus in a very public and terrible-looking manner last season. And the overall roster is in a state of rebooting, with a significant amount of traction in the 2027 draft, which includes a haul of three first-round picks. That latter reality could result in patience for the Jets, who could test run a bridge starter like Murray for a season and then have the quarterback-rich 2027 draft as their backstop.
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The big question here will be whether Willis wants to gamble on the Jets and less-than-ideal ownership, and what other options the Jets can pursue.
All of these pursuits are expected to hit the ground running when the legal tampering period begins in free agency on March 9. But one of the first significant markers about how this will unfold could come out of Pittsburgh — if and when Rodgers lets the Steelers know his plans for 2026. If the Steelers and Rodgers are going their separate ways, the Willis market could get heated quickly.
Some other odds and ends from the conclusion of combine week …
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I came into the week believing the Minnesota Vikings were looking for someone to compete with J.J. McCarthy. I exited it believing they’re really looking for someone to come in and be the team’s starter in 2026. The ankle injury that McCarthy sustained last season — and the lingering amount of time it took for him to return — had a lot to do with McCarthy suddenly becoming such a questionable bet moving forward.
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I don’t think the San Francisco 49ers are trading Mac Jones unless there is an offer they couldn’t refuse and there’s also a backup QB available whom they trust. There’s too much on the line with Brock Purdy’s injury history and Jones was too valuable to sacrifice for a middle-round pick.
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I’ll be interested to see if anyone bites on the Anthony Richardson Sr. trade availability. The tough spot for interested teams is that Richardson’s fifth-year option is going to be declined by whoever would deal for him, giving an acquiring team nothing but one season to look at him. For any interested team, the starting quarterback spot would have to be monumentally shaky — to the point of potentially giving Richardson a long look as a starter in 2026. It’s worth noting that the Cleveland Browns’ front office was high on Richardson’s ceiling when he came into the league.
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I think it’s not outside the realm of possibility that the Las Vegas Raiders hold onto Geno Smith for a while this offseason. I’ve heard the Raiders want to keep their options open with pushing Fernando Mendoza immediately into a starting role, keeping the door open to giving him time to get his feet under him if he needs it. Secondly, there’s a chance that a trade market for Smith materializes once someone gets left without good options. Even if a trade market for Smith doesn’t come together (and I think it might), the Raiders could hold onto Smith. Think along the lines of what the New England Patriots did with Drake Maye during his rookie season, when veteran Jacoby Brissett made five starts for the franchise. It’s possible the Raiders could prioritize taking their time with Mendoza until the offense can come together a bit in the scheme of new head coach Klint Kubiak. That might be what fans want to see, but it definitely helped Maye’s transition into New England’s starting role in 2024.
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Last but not least, I think Kirk Cousins will sit back in the early stages of free agency and see what kind of market comes to him. There could be as many as nine starting quarterback changes this offseason, and it doesn’t seem like there are nine Day 1 starters out there unless someone forces it with Alabama’s Ty Simpson in the draft. Cousins could end up finding some solid value late in the migration process, as teams see options dry up and need a veteran starter. I don’t think Cousins’ starting days are over.
