Every March, there are a few NCAA tournament teams that are glaringly more dangerous than their seed suggests.
It might be a juggernaut No. 1 seed that is the overwhelming favorite to win it all. Or a mid-tier team that struggled early but is peaking entering March. Or a tournament-proven-but-criminally-underseeded mid-major with a history of making life miserable for highly touted teams from a power conference.
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The purpose of this now-annual column is to identify those potential opponents that NCAA tournament teams should want to avoid at all costs. Two years ago, we took some big swings that didn’t really pan out. Last year, we correctly called out BYU as a scorching-hot No. 6 seed and Gonzaga and UConn as terrifying No. 8 seeds. The Cougars upset Wisconsin to advance to the Sweet 16, while the Zags and Huskies gave Houston and Florida maybe their biggest scares before the Final Four.
We’ll hope for more hits than misses this year.
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The projected No. 1 seeds (Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida)
Last March, all four No. 1 seeds bulldozed their way to the Final Four for only the second time in NCAA tournament history.
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This season, the teams projected to make the top seed line once again are absolute wrecking machines.
Michigan (29-2) won the outright Big Ten title by four full games in a league that could send as many as 10 teams to the NCAA tournament. Duke (29-2) outscored its 18 ACC opponents by a total of 361 points. Florida (25-6) bludgeoned college basketball’s highest-rated league with its deep, battle-tested frontcourt. Arizona (29-2) dismantled the notion that a team that attempts scarcely any 3-pointers can’t contend for the national title.
Those four teams enter their conference tournaments with KenPom adjusted efficiency margins between 35.34 and 40.57. Since the KenPom era began in 1997, only eight teams have ever finished a season with adjusted efficiency margins higher than 35.34. Half those eight teams are from the previous two seasons — last year’s Duke, Houston and Florida teams, and then UConn the year before that.
What that suggests is that the NIL era is producing elite teams that are more dominant than those of previous seasons. Deep-pocketed power-conferences programs are paying to retain borderline NBA prospects who might previously have gone to the draft, pluck accomplished transfers from small-conference teams and pursue college-aged professional players playing for top overseas clubs.
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In other words, this may not be the era to land an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAA tournament. Teams capable of making an underdog run may want to avoid the No. 1 seeds for as long as possible.
Trey Campbell and the Northern Iowa Panthers are hitting their stride at the right time. (Greg Fiore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Northern Iowa Panthers
Record: 23-12, 11-9 Missouri Valley | Projected seed: 13
Pity the unlucky No. 4 seed that draws Northern Iowa in the first round of the NCAA tournament. That higher-seeded team will hate every second playing against a slow-paced, ultra-disciplined opponent that is peaking at the right time.
Northern Iowa entered the season with high expectations after winning 20 games the previous season and bringing back players who logged a national-best 72.1% of the minutes. The Panthers also welcomed NAIA first-team All-American Tristan Smith, a forward who averaged 20.5 points for Concordia University, Nebraska, and led the team in just about every other statistical category as well.
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The season didn’t always go as planned. Northern Iowa lost six of seven during one dreadful January stretch that coincided with an injury that sidelined Smith for nearly a month. But when the versatile Smith was healthy enough to play, the Panthers went 21-6. They’ve been the No. 41 team in the country since Smith’s Feb. 6 return from injury, according to Bart Torvik’s T-Rankings.
Northern Iowa validated those numbers last week by winning four games in four days at Arch Madness to go from the Missouri Valley Conference’s No. 6 seed to securing a bid to the NCAA tournament. The Panthers play at the second-slowest tempo in the country, take care of the basketball and force opponents to score against a set defense that ranks top 25 nationally.
A low-possession style of play tends to be conducive to upsets. And Northern Iowa coach Ben Jacobsen has a history of pulling them. In 2010, the Panthers famously Farokhmaneshed top-seeded Kansas to advance to the Sweet 16. They also won opening-round games against Wyoming in 2015 and Texas in 2016.
The best team in the Valley during the regular season? That was Belmont.
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But the most dangerous team the Valley could send to the NCAA tournament? Northern Iowa has a really strong case.
Nick Boyd and the Wisconsin Badgers have shown all season that they can knock off top-tier teams. (John Fisher/Getty Images)
(John Fisher via Getty Images)
Wisconsin Badgers
Record: 22-9, 14-6 Big Ten | Projected seed: 6
Looking for an Elite Eight sleeper?
Wisconsin is exactly the sort of volatile No. 6 seed who could string together a couple marquee wins … if it doesn’t endure an off shooting night in the first round and go home early, of course.
The Badgers combine elite offense, extremely low turnover rate and high-volume 3-point shooting, a profile that often produces NCAA tournament upsets. They’ve displayed the ability to topple juggernauts already this season, piling up top-10 victories against Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois and Purdue, all but one of which came on the road.
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Adding to the appeal of Wisconsin, the Badgers are peaking at the right time. After losing to every NCAA tournament-caliber opponent they faced during an underwhelming non-league season, they’ve performed at a top-15 level since Jan. 1, per Torvik’s T-Rankings. Over the last month, they’ve been even better.
Don’t expect Wisconsin to enter the postseason feeling satisfied either. Guard Nick Boyd, who is averaging 20.2 points per game and who has exceeded his scoring average in all the Badgers’ biggest wins this season, was left off the all-Big Ten first team.
That news drew a laughing emoji from teammate John Blackwell.
“Twizoo it’s time!” Boyd responded, alongside his own emoji of a receipt.
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St. John’s Red Storm
Record: 25-6, 18-2 Big East | Projected seed: 5
Call it the Steve Lavin-era UCLA rule.
Every few years, there’s a disappointing preseason AP top-10 team that messes around for most of the regular season but comes alive when it matters most.
Way back in 2000, preseason No. 6 North Carolina stumbled to a 13-loss regular season, reset entering the NCAA tournament and stormed to the Final Four as a No. 8 seed. Talent also eventually showed through for freshman-laden Kentucky teams in 2011 and 2014. Preseason No. 5 Auburn underwhelmed during the 2018-19 regular season, then caught fire entering March. So did preseason No. 9 Syracuse in 2013.
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Who’s the best candidate to follow that pattern this March? Without question, it’s St. John’s.
The preseason No. 5 Johnnies floundered during the first two months of the season, plummeted out of the AP poll but then found their footing over the course of Big East play. They actually won the league outright despite a catastrophe of a 72-40 loss at UConn in late February.
The St. John’s frontcourt is loaded with proven talent. Zuby Ejiofor, Bryce Hopkins and Dillon Mitchell can mash with anybody. The backcourt has been frustratingly inconsistent, but Ian Jackson, Joson Sanon and Oziyah Sellers are streaky enough scorers to carry their teams in March. And St. John’s is not going to get out-coached very often with Rick Pitino patrolling its sideline.
Since St. John’s performed so poorly in non-league play and the Big East offered few chances for marquee wins, the Johnnies still project as just a No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament despite losing just a single game since Jan. 3. They’re the sort of landmine a top-four seed should hope to avoid in the round of 32 or even the Sweet 16.
