It was a first two rounds full of chalk in the 2025 NCAA tournament, as favorites won 36 of the 48 games (but only went 26-22 against the spread). It was also and a good few days for most sportsbooks, as there were enough upsets to break up money-line parlays on favorites, but unders also went 27-20-1. And we know the public isn’t going to be betting on a ton of unders in March Madness.
Although those lack of upsets may have made the first round less exciting, the Round of 32 featured some fantastic games and the Sweet 16 has some potential barnburners as well.
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Just like I did before the tournament, I’ve asked several sharp handicappers to share a best bet or two they like for the Sweet 16. And remember that just because you’re watching a game, it doesn’t mean you need a wager on it — especially before the game begins. There have been plenty of live betting opportunities (see: Michigan State down most of the first half before winning and covering the original 7.5-point spread against New Mexico) to arise in March Madness if you’re patient and stay disciplined.
Here are four Sweet 16 games that some respected bettors have already wagered on:
All odds courtesy of BetMGM
Thursday
7:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
Mike Randle, FTN Network: Alabama is overly reliant on the three-point shot, and has been making them at a much worse rate than last season. The Crimson Tide shoot 45.6% of their shots from beyond the arc, but are making just 35% from deep. First-year head coach Kevin Young has BYU running an NBA-style offense that ranks top-10 overall in adjusted-offensive efficiency per KenPom. The Cougars rank 35th overall in average height, and will be a worthy adversary for Alabama. BYU has earned impressive road wins over Arizona and Iowa State, and I think Young’s elite offensive sets earn another upset on Thursday.
Bet: BYU +5.5
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Corbie Craig, Bettor Odds: The highest total in March Madness since 2000 (as far back as our database goes), BYU quickly runs into some trouble as it has shown flaws defensively when teams have players who can create and attack basket. Now the Cougars face an Alabama team that will push plenty of pace, find their quality players in space and get buckets. Say what you want about the Crimson Tide, but they have the best spacing in the nation and multiple competent scorers on several levels. I think this game goes over this high total.
Bet: Bama-BYU over 175.5
7:39 p.m. ET (TBS)
Randle: The Gators survived their big test against two-time defending champion UConn in the Round of 32. Florida has elite metrics, ranking top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency and second in adjusted offensive efficiency. Maryland has enjoyed a favorable slate of opponents, and barely escaped against a limited Colorado State team last round. The Terrapins are not a deep team, only playing five primary players, which will be a problem against a Gators team that has 10 players who play at least 10 minutes or more. Florida is the better team, and a true national championship contender. Maryland is facing a significant increase in talent from the prior two matchups. I’m rolling with the Gators in a double-digit win over the Terrapins.
Bet: Florida -6
10:09 p.m. ET (TBS)
Paul Stone, pro bettor: I know there are conflicting opinions in the college basketball world concerning whether John Calipari is a top game-day tactician, but it’s difficult not to be impressed with the job he’s done in his first season at Arkansas at age 66. His team was forced to play down the stretch without two of its top players — Boogie Fland and Adou Thiero — but found a way to do just enough at the end of the season to find a spot in the tournament.
Calipari (10-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games) said on Tuesday that he experts Thiero to play 12-15 minutes against Texas Tech on Friday. The Hogs have especially thrived as an underdog, going 8-2 ATS in that role since Feb. 1, including outright tournament victories over favored Kansas and St. John’s. I just love this team’s grit and determination. They seem to be connected and playing with a purpose. I like Arkansas and the points.
Bet: Arkansas +5.5
Chris Fallica, FOX Sports: I did lay the 5.5 with Texas Tech. I get the feeling that Arkansas could be the public darling, but let’s look at what they did in the first two games. Kansas had the first-round game won, but completely fell apart with turnovers late, and then St. John’s couldn’t throw the ball in the ocean this past weekend. Texas Tech can win if they are hitting 3s or not, and they might get Chance McMillian back. I figured I’d get this number early because it will go up if McMillian returns.
Bet: Texas Tech -5.5
Friday
7:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
Stone: Three-point shooting is the great equalizer in the college game, but Ole Miss was 11-of-19 from beyond the arc in its 91-78 victory over Iowa State. Three-point shooting can be difficult to sustain, plus Michigan State leads the nation in 3-point defense, limiting opponents to just 27.8% from 3-point land, so I don’t see Ole Miss hitting nearly as many 3-pointers on Friday night against the Spartans. I still believe Michigan State has a chance to emerge from the South Region and earn a trip to San Antonio. This Spartans team is on a tremendous roll, having won and covered 10 of its last 11 games. I like Michigan State to beat Ole Miss and cover this number.
Bet: Michigan State -3.5
Corbie: It may seem scary to get in front of an Ole Miss team after what they just did to Iowa State, but I’m not really buying it. The Rebels beat an Iowa State without its best player and prior to that, Ole Miss beat a North Carolina team that squeaked its way into March Madness. So now we are all just buying all in on the Rebs? They are outside the top 300 in the offensive rebounding rate and will now be outsized in near every position. Backing Tom Izzo in March sounds like fun, give me the favorite to cover here.
Bet: Michigan State -3.5
