March Madness bracket predictions 4.0: Projecting the Field of 68 for 2026 NCAA Tournament

March Madness bracket predictions 4.0: Projecting the Field of 68 for 2026 NCAA Tournament originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The Big East matchup Wednesday between UConn and St. John’s is the highlight of the men’s basketball season with two weeks left in the regular season.

Will those teams get enough respect in the seeding in the 2026 NCAA men’s basketball tournament? It’s a tough question in our fourth men’s bracketology for the 2025-26 Men’s Basketball Tournament.

The Huskies (25-3) are 15-2 in the Big East and 14-2 in Quads 1-2 — but a 91-84 loss against Creighton on Feb. 18 carries a greater penalty than the garden-variety upset in another conference.

Saint John’s (22-5) was 31-5 last season and got a No. 2 seed. Now, the Red Storm are 15-1 in the Big East and 11-4 in Quads 1-2. Dan Hurley and Rick Pitino are two of the best coaches in men’s basketball. We think both teams are better than their seed – and that’s something to keep an eye on with the committee. This isn’t about the strength of the conference. This is about two good teams – and that will be seen Wednesday.

TCU, New Mexico, Missouri and Ohio State our last Four Teams In. Seton Hall, Indiana, VCU and Cal are our first Four Teams Out.

This year’s Final Four is April 4-6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Moved in: Howard, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio State, Southeast Missouri State, Utah Valley

Moved out: Indiana, Morgan State, San Diego State, Utah Tech, UT-Martin, USC

Who is in our latest Field of 68? A closer look:

* – Projected automatic bid
** – Last four in

NCAA tournament Field of 68 projections

No. 1 Seeds

*Duke (25-2, 13-1 ACC)

Resume: KenPom: 2, Net: 2. The Blue Devils beat Michigan 68-63 and now have a 12-2 record against Quad 1 opponents. Duke still has marquee home games against Virginia (Feb. 28) and North Carolina (March 7).

*Michigan (25-2, 15-1 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 1, Net 1. The Wolverines switch places with Duke ahead of a tough week against Minnesota and Illinois. The loss to the Blue Devils was just the second time Michigan has been limited to less than 70 points under coach Dusty May this season.

*Arizona (25-2, 12-2 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom 3, Net 3. The Wildcats are back on track after victories against BYU and Houston. Jaden Bradley averaged 14.5 points and seven assists in those Big 12 victories, and Arizona is 11-2 against Quad 1 opponents.

Iowa State (23-4, 10-4 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom: 9, Net: 8. The Bracket Preview put the Cyclones in the fourth No. 1 spot – which is a questionable decision – but Iowa State does have 15 victories against opponents in Quads 1-2. UConn has 14. We’ll keep a second Big 12 team on this line for now.

No. 2 Seeds

*UConn (25-3, 15-2 Big East)

Resume: KenPom: 10, Net: 11. The Huskies have a Quad 3 loss, but their case for a No. 1 seed with a 7-2 Quad 1 record. The Wednesday matchup against St. John’s is a chance to improve that resume.

Houston (23-4, 11-3 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom: 8, Net: 6. The Cougars lost to Iowa State and Arizona and now have a road trip to Kansas on Monday. Emmanuel Sharp averaged 15 points on 6 of 22 shooting in those losses.

Purdue (22-5, 12-4 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom: 6, Net: 7. Purdue hammered Indiana 93-64 on Friday and set up a showdown with Michigan State on Thursday. Trey Kaurman-Renn averaged 23.5 points against Michigan and Indiana last week.

*Florida (21-6, 12-2 SEC)

Resume: KenPom: 6, Net: 9. The Gators were behind Illinois in the Bracket Preview, but this is the top SEC team in the field. Florida is on a seven-game winning streak heading into Wednesday’s game against Texas.

Keaton Wagler

No. 3 Seeds

Illinois (22-6, 13-4 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom: 4, Net: 4. Florida is 13-6 against Quads 1-2. Illinois is 12-6. It’s close, but the Illini have lost three of five heading into Friday’s home matchup against Michigan.

Gonzaga (27-2, 15-1 West Coast)

Resume: KenPom: 5, Net: 9. The Bulldogs close the West Coast Conference schedule against Portland and Saint Mary’s this week. The Pilots beat Gonzaga 87-80 on Feb. 4. Gonzaga can win its 23rd regular-season conference championship under Mark Few.

Kansas (20-7, 10-4 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom 18, Net 19. This is a pivotal week for the Jayhawks after an embarrassing 84-68 loss to Cincinnati on Saturday. How will Kansas respond against Houston and Arizona this week? Darryn Peterson averaged 20 points and 25 minutes in two games last week.

DECOURCY: What’s going on with Darryn Peterson? Nobody knows

Nebraska (23-4, 12-4 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom: 11, Net: 11. The Huskers are 6-4 in Quad 1 and do not have a loss in Quads 2-4. Nebraska does not have a ranked Big Ten team left on the schedule, starting with USC and Maryland this week.

No. 4 seeds

Michigan State (22-5, 12-4 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom: 12, Net: 10. Michigan State’s resume is close to Nebraska. Jeremy Fears averaged 13.5 points and nine assists in home victories against UCLA and Ohio State. The Spartans have road games at Purdue and Indiana this week.

Texas Tech (20-7, 10-4)

Resume: KenPom 14, Net 16. JT Toppin is lost for the season, and the Red Raiders split against Arizona State and Kansas State last week. Donovan Atwell scored 26 points in the 100-72 victory against the Wildcats.

Virginia (24-3, 12-2 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 16, Net 18. The Cavaliers have won eight in a row heading into Tuesday’s home matchup against NC State. Virginia allowed less than 70 points in six of those victories. That could set up a fantastic matchup at Duke on Saturday.

Alabama (20-7, 10-4 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 21, Net 20. The Crimson Tide have won six straight games – including four since the Charles Bediako ruling on Feb. 9. Alabama is averaging 97.5 points per game under coach Nate Oats during this winning streak.

No. 5 seeds

St. John’s (22-5, 15-1 Big East)

Resume: KenPom 23, Net 22. St. John’s has won 13 straight games under Rick Pitino and can get closer to a second straight Big East championship with a victory against UConn on Wednesday. We like the Red Storm here despite a 3-4 record against Quad 1. St. John’s beat UConn 81-72 in Madison Square Garden earlier this month.

Vanderbilt (21-6, 8-6 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 15, Net 13. The Commodores drop a line from their spot on the Bracket Preview after losses to Missouri and Tennessee last week. Vanderbilt is 12-6 against Quads 1-2. Alabama is 14-7. It’s close, but the edge goes to the Crimson Tide.

Arkansas (20-7, 10-4 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 19, Net 17. Darius Acuff had 49 points in the 117-115 double-overtime loss against Alabama on Feb. 18. He ranks eighth in the NCAA with 22.2 points per game and is a player to keep close tabs on in March.

Louisville (20-7, 9-5 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 13, Net 15. The Cardinals averaged 86.8 points per game. The Cardinals have a 6-7 record against Quad 1 opponents heading into Monday’s matchup at North Carolina.

No. 6 seeds

BYU (20-7, 8-6 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom 20, Net 21. The Cougars split with Arizona and Iowa State last week. AJ Dybantsa averaged 32 points and 8.5 rebounds in those two games. The Cougars are 6-6 against Quad 1. Is this too low?

Tennessee (20-7, 10-4 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 17, Net 14. The Vols easily fit as a No. 5 seed, and Rick Barnes has won double-digit games in SEC play for six straight seasons. Tennessee plays at Missouri on Tuesday before a home game against Alabama on Saturday.

North Carolina (21-6, 9-5 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 28, Net 25. It’s a big week for the Tar Heels, who have home games against Louisville and Virginia Tech this week. North Carolina is 5-6 against Quad 1 and 2-1 since losing Caleb Wilson to a hand injury.

Kentucky (17-10, 8-6 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 27, Net 28. The Wildcats have lost three straight games under Mark Pope, which puts a little more urgency on Tuesday’s game at South Carolina. Kentucky still has home games against Vanderbilt (Feb. 28) and Florida (March 7).

No. 7 seeds

Saint Louis (25-2, 13-1 Atlantic 10)

Resume: KenPom 22, Net 24. The Billikens have a compelling at-large case even if the Atlantic 10 tournament does not go according to plan. St. Louis has seven players that score more than nine points per game.

Villanova (21-6, 12-4 Big East)

Resume: KenPom 26, Net 30. The Wildcats have stuck on this line, but they are 0-4 against top-25 teams and 2-5 against Quad 1 opponents. There is work to do for coach Kevin Willard. Villanova plays Butler on Wednesday’s before a Saturday matchup at St. John’s.

NC State (19-8, 10-4 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 27, Net 25. NC State snapped a two-game losing streak with an 82-58 blowout against North Carolina on Wednesday – and that’s a good sign heading into Tuesday’s game at Virginia. Coach Will Wade continues to impress in his first season with the program.

Wisconsin (19-8, 11-5 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 34, Net 29. Wisconsin is 10-8 in Quads 1-2 and has a West Coast swing at Oregon and Washington this week. This is the right line for the Badgers.

No. 8 seeds

*Utah State (23-4, 13-3 MWC)

Resume: KenPom 24, Net 23. The Aggies lost at Nevada on Saturday, which snapped an eight-game winning streak. Utah State is 3-3 in Quad 1 with just one loss in Quads 2-4.

SMU (18-8, 8-6 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 38, Net 36. Andy Enfield has the Mustangs playing well. SMU has won four of its last five games heading into West Coast matchups against Cal and Stanford this week.

Iowa (19-8, 9-7 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 25, Net 26. The Hawkeyes have lost three of four games heading into Wednesday’s game against Ohio State. Iowa isn’t on the bubble – but that’s not a game you want to lose.

Texas (17-10, 8-6 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 39, Net 32. Texas is in that clump of SEC teams trying to stay off the bubble under Sean Miller. Dailyn Swain has 20 or more points in four of Texas’ last five games.

Rest of the field …

No. 9 seeds

Miami, Fla. (21-6, 10-4 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 35, Net 39.

Auburn (15-12, 6-8 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 32, Net 34.

Clemson (20-8, 10-5 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 38, Net 40.

Georgia (19-8, 7-7 SEC)

Resume: KenPom: 33, Net: 38.

No. 10 seeds

*Miami, Ohio (27-0, 14-0 MAC)

Resume: KenPom: 48, Net: 84.

Saint Mary’s (25-4, 14-2 West Coast)

Resume: KenPom 26, Net 27.

Texas A&M (19-8, 9-5 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 42, Net 37.

UCLA (18-9, 10-6 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 41, Net 42.

No. 11 seeds

UCF (19-6, 8-6 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom 46, Net 49.

Santa Clara (23-6, 14-2 West Coast)

Resume: KenPom 40, Net 40.

**TCU (17-10, 7-7 Big 12)

Resume: KenPom 47, Net 50.

**New Mexico (21-6, 12-4 MWC)

Resume: KenPom 43, Net 43.

**Missouri (18-9, 8-6 SEC)

Resume: KenPom 60, Net 52.

**Ohio State (17-10, 9-7 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 37, Net 36.

No. 12 seeds

*South Florida (19-8, 11-3 American)

Resume: KenPom: 52, Net: 55.

*Belmont (25-4, 15-3 MVC)

Resume: KenPom 54, Net: 54.

*Yale (21-4, 9-2 Ivy)

Resume: KenPom: 63, Net: 77.

*Utah Valley (20-7, 10-4 WAC)

Resume: KenPom: 77, Net: 81.

No. 13 seeds

*Liberty (23-4, 15-1 Conference USA)

Resume: KenPom: 90, Net: 104.

*Stephen F. Austin (25-3, 18-1 Southland)

Resume: Net: 81, KenPom: 88.

*High Point (26-4, 14-1 Big South)

Resume: KenPom: 71, Net: 91.

*UNC-Wilmington (24-4, 13-2 CAA)

Resume: KenPom: 92, Net: 103.

No. 14 seeds

*Hawai’i (19-7, 11-5 Big West)

Resume: KenPom: 104, Net: 110.

*North Dakota State (23-6, 13-1 Summit)

Resume: KenPom: 112, Net: 117.

*ETSU (21-8, 13-3 Southern)

Resume: KenPom: 119, Net: 133.

*Portland State (18-8, 12-3 Big Sky)

Resume: KenPom: 138, Net: 143.

No. 15 seeds

*Austin Peay (21-6, 15-1 Atlantic Sun)

Resume: KenPom: 134, Net: 142.

*Navy (23-6, 15-1 Patriot)

Resume: KenPom: 141, Net: 147.

*Wright State (18-11, 13-5 Horizon)

Resume: KenPom: 138, Net: 143.

*Merrimack (20-9, 16-2 MAAC)

Resume: KenPom: 177, Net: 166.

No. 16 seeds

*Appalachian State (19-11, 11-6 Sun Belt)

Resume: KenPom: 184, Net: 181.

*Long Island (19-10, 13-3 Northeast)

Resume: KenPom: 199, Net: 216.

**Howard (18-10, 8-3 MEAC)

Resume: KenPom: 209, Net: 218.

**Southeast Missouri State (18-11, 13-5 OVC)

Resume: KenPom: 215, Net: 226.

**UMBC (18-8, 11-2 America East)

Resume: KenPom: 239, Net: 231.

**Bethune-Cookman (15-13, 12-3 SWAC)

Resume: KenPom: 254, Net: 234.

Bubble watch

Seton Hall (18-8, 9-8 Big East)

Resume: KenPom 48, Net 51. Seton Hall continues to hover on the bubble despite a 1-4 record in Quad 1. The Pirates play UConn on Saturday and St. John’s on March 6. Those are the chances to shine before the Big East tournament.

Indiana (17-9, 8-7 Big Ten)

Resume: KenPom 36, Net 31. Indiana had blowout losses against Illinois and Purdue, but they still have the highest ranking combination of any team left out of the field heading into Tuesday’s home game against Northwestern. The regular-season finale at Ohio State on March 7 will be a huge bubble game.

VCU (21-7, 12-3 Atlantic 10)

Resume: KenPom 44, Net 45. Phil Martelli has the Rams in the mix for an at-large berth. Two A-10 conference losses are to St. Louis. Can the conference get two teams in the tournament?

Cal (19-8, 7-7 ACC)

Resume: KenPom 59, Net 66. Cal has a poor ranking combination under coach Mark Madsen, but the Golden Bears have a .500 record in ACC play and a favorable schedule the next two weeks.

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