When we talk about increased parity in women’s college basketball, what we really mean is depth at the top of the sport. There are legitimately 6-8 teams good enough to cut down the nets this year, which means that it’s hard to pencil the No. 1 seeds all into the Final Four like we used to do without thinking twice.
That also makes it quite difficult to fill out a bracket!
Have no fear, though. I don’t mind sharing my quick picks with the entire internet, even though I’ll probably miss on my upset picks and probably a Final Four participant (or two).
My first-round Cinderellas include Grand Canyon (upsetting No. 4 seed Baylor) and Fairfield (taking out No. 5 Kansas State). Both programs are led by rising-star head coaches who have built their respective programs over the past couple of years. For what it’s worth, I feel stronger about Fairfield because a good portion of that roster gained NCAA Tournament experience a year ago and because this game isn’t happening on K-State’s home court.
I’ve also picked Florida Gulf Coast to upset Oklahoma — which would be a legitimate bracket-buster — under first-year head coach Chelsea Lyles, who took over after longtime coach Karl Smesko left for the WNBA’s Atlanta Dream. FGCU has long been the team that opponents never wanted to draw, and I think that will remain the case after the regime change.
I’m also keeping a close eye on Harvard, led by the sensational Harmoni Turner, the Ivy League Player of the Year. The Crimson are a No. 10 seed and a 10-7 upset isn’t necessarily shocking, but I think this team is capable of pulling a true stunner and beating No. 2 seed North Carolina State in the second round.
My bracket is fairly chalky elsewhere, with Elite Eight matchups featuring 1-2 clashes in two regions — South Carolina-Duke in Birmingham 2 and USC-UConn in Spokane 4. Selfishly, I picked those teams to meet in that round because I really, really want to see those matchups. Kara Lawson has done a masterful job building up the Duke program, and the Blue Devils are one of the hottest teams in the country heading into this tournament, which means they may be capable of knocking off the Gamecocks — the defending national champs. I’ve got JuJu Watkins and her Trojans getting the best of Paige Bueckers and the Huskies in a star-studded showdown (that I wish we would’ve had in Tampa, but alas).
I’m predicting UCLA to beat LSU to advance to the Final Four out of the Spokane I region, which would set up a fourth (!) clash between the Los Angeles schools this season. USC won the first two while UCLA got its revenge in the Big Ten tournament championship game, but I think Round 4 will go to USC and its generational talent. For some reason, the Trojans are a tough matchup for the Bruins —they’re the only team that’s been able to beat ‘em, and they’ve done it twice — and I think that’s going to play out again in Tampa.
I’ve saved my most controversial take for last. I’m still all-in on Notre Dame. The Irish could make me look silly if they continue to play as they did down the stretch, losing three of their final five games heading into Selection Sunday. But I love Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles in the backcourt together, with the sharpshooter Sonia Citron capable of turning around a game at any point. I have to believe that Niele Ivey will get Notre Dame right when the lights are brightest and not that this talented team peaked too early. So, I’ll ride with the Irish all the way to the title game, taking out Texas, TCU and then Duke to get there.
Final Four picks, national champion, and full bracket:
– Final Four: UCLA, Duke, Notre Dame, USC
– National champion: USC. JuJu has great pieces around her, but ultimately this history-making moment for the Trojans will come down to her. And she’ll be more than ready for it. The Trojans will win their first national championship in four decades.
And finally, here’s my full bracket:
Extra content note: I took part in a panel discussion for NBC News on the women’s NCAA tournament, which touches on some of the same subjects as this piece. To read that panel with more of my thoughts and others’, click here.
