It’s mid-February, which means it’s time for college basketball fans to get serious about NCAA Tournament brackets.
Conference championships just around the corner, meaning March Madness is nearly here. At this point of the 2025-26 season, we have a good idea of which teams are headed to the Big Dance — and which teams have work left to do.
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Last year at this time, it was easy to predict an SEC team would win it all, as the conference was dominating the top 25. Eventually, it was Florida that won the national championship.
That conference has taken a step back this year, with the Big Ten emerging as the conference to watch. In USA TODAY Sports’ latest look at the bracket, Georgia, UCLA, Ohio State, TCU are the last four teams in the tourney, through Tuesday, Feb. 17. Conversely, New Mexico, California, Missouri and Santa Clara are the first four teams out of the tournament.
Here’s an updated look at the NCAA Tournament bubble, with which teams are locks and likely in the field as the conference tournaments begin this week:
March Madness bracket bubble watch tracker
Tracker based on games through Tuesday, Feb. 17
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NCAA Tournament locks
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Big Ten (7): Michigan, Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa
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ACC (6): Duke, Virginia, Louisville, North Carolina, Clemson and North Carolina State
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Big 12 (6): Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech and Brigham Young
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SEC (6): Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee and Kentucky
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Other (5): Gonzaga, Miami (Ohio), St. Louis, Saint Mary’s and Utah State
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Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s and Villanova
The Big Ten currently leads all conferences with a projected seven teams that look like locks for the NCAA Tournament. Michigan has looked like the best team in the country all season.
Following a slow start, Florida looks like a real threat to win the SEC and get back to the Final Four to defend its national championship. The SEC ties the ACC and Big 12 with six teams looking like potential locks.
The Big East has three potential locks for the tournament, making it a real threat to the other conferences in 2025-26.
NCAA Tournament likely ins
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ACC (2): Miami and Southern Methodist
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Big Ten (2): Indiana and UCLA
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Big 12 (1): Central Florida
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SEC (3): Auburn, Texas A&M and Texas
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Other (6): Howard, New Mexico, Santa Clara, San Diego State, VCU and Yale
Auburn reached the Final Four last season, but still has some work to do to even get back to the tournament in the first season with Steven Pearl leading the team, following the retirement of Bruce Pearl before the season.
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Despite losing Richard Pitino to St. John’s, New Mexico has held up strongly this year and is a team that could likely earn a berth in the NCAA Tournament if the Lobos have a strong ending to the season.
After winning it all in football, could Indiana make history and follow Florida in becoming schools to win football and basketball national titles in the same academic year?
NCAA Tournament bubble teams
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Big Ten (2): Ohio State and Southern California
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SEC (2): Georgia and Missouri
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Other (7): Belmont, High Point, Liberty, Navy, North Dakota State, Stephen F. Austin and Utah Valley
These bubble teams have just over a 50% chance of reaching the NCAA Tournament, according to JThom Analytics. These teams have a strong chance to make the Big Dance, but will need to have strong finishes to the season.
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For these teams, winning their conference tournaments would remove doubts about the strength of the schedule, quality of wins, etc. Schools such as Georgia or Missouri in the SEC, or Ohio State and USC in the Big Ten, could use deep runs in their respective conference tournaments to lock in a spot.
At this point, none of the schools on this list should book tickets for the NCAA Tournament — but one good week could change the discourse and make Selection Sunday less stressful.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness bracket bubble tracker: Latest look at who’s in, out
