Part of the charm of the NCAA tournament is the early-round upsets. There hasn’t been much of that this year.
The top four seeds in each region went 16-0 in the first round. There were some minor upsets but the most popular championship pick in Yahoo Bracket Mayhem to get knocked off was Kansas. The Jayhawks were the 11th most popular champion pick at 0.94%.
What the lack of upsets does mean is some good matchups as we go along in the tournament, including a strong slate of games for Sunday. That’s due to just two double-digit seeds (No. 10 New Mexico and No. 12 Colorado State) winning on Friday.
Here are the picks for Sunday’s second-round games, with all odds from BetMGM:
All times Eastern.
The two-time defending national champ Huskies had an odd season. They had extreme swings, looking at times like they could make a deep tournament run again, but other stretches of looking like they were a typical bubble team. But it’s still a roster full of talent, with a fantastic coach and the capability of beating top teams. Florida probably won’t lose straight up. The Gators are a strong No. 1 seed that breezed through the SEC tournament and its first-round NCAA tournament game. But UConn won’t be a pushover.
OK, so Cooper Flagg is healthy. The likely national player of the year looked like his normal self in the first round, not showing much sign that he missed most of the ACC tournament with a sprained ankle. That means there’s nothing keeping Duke from running the table and winning a championship. The Blue Devils are loaded, and while Baylor has some elite talent too, the Bears should be no match for Duke.
Illinois’ ceiling is enticing. That includes Kasparas Jakucionis, a potential NBA Draft lottery pick. Some of the Illini’s struggles this season can be attributed to various illnesses within the team and injuries. That makes them a dangerous No. 6 seed now that they’re healthy. It’s odd to say considering what we’re used to from Kentucky, but the Illini is the more talented team. Mark Pope has done a great job with the Wildcats this season, but there’s a reason Illinois is favored.
Alabama was one of the rare top seeds that looked like it might get upset in the first round. The Crimson Tide won by just nine over Robert Morris. St. Mary’s had a nice comeback win in the first round and is probably under-seeded in the tournament. But the first-round scare might wake up Alabama, which has the ability to beat anyone in the field.
Colorado State was favored in the first round as a No. 12 seed, which is rare. We saw why. The Rams played well against Memphis. The Rams have been one of the hottest shooting teams in the nation over the past few weeks. Maryland is a good team with a star in freshman Derik Queen, but the Rams’ shooting can keep it close.
Iowa State looked good in an 82-55 win over Lipscomb on Friday. Like most favorites, they covered easily in the first round. But the season-ending injury to Keshon Gilbert (13.4 points per game) still leaves the Cyclones a bit vulnerable. Ole Miss is a big step up in competition from Lipscomb. The Rebels nearly let North Carolina stage an epic comeback in the first round, but hit enough shots down the stretch to win and cover. SEC teams should all be ready for any challenge the NCAA tournament throws at them. This should be a close game.
The Spartans are March staples. Everyone knows Tom Izzo’s track record in the NCAA tournament. New Mexico is a quality team with an upper-tier point guard in Donovan Dent, and the win over Marquette in the first round was thorough and impressive. But when Michigan State enters the tournament playing well, it’s hard to go against the Spartans.
Not many teams looked better in the first round than Arizona. They overwhelmed an Akron team that dominated the MAC. Oregon is far from a MAC team but if the Wildcats play anywhere near their best they can run away with this game. Of course Arizona does have games when its shooting disappears, but that has been hard to predict. The Wildcats team we saw in the first round looks dangerous.
