Men Could Get Left Off Worlds Squad

U.S. Nationals: Men Could Get Left Off Worlds Squad Due to Roster Limits

Roster crunches have become the norm for the U.S. swim team in recent seasons. The 2021 Olympic Trials concluded with Ryan Held left off the Tokyo-bound team because of a limit on relay-only swimmers. Two years later, Michael Andrew was kept off the Worlds team despite winning the 50 butterfly at Nationals, with the team already maxed out at 26 swimmers, and sixth-place relay swimmers Blake Pieroni and Matt King only snuck onto the roster after Thomas Heilman upset Dare Rose in the 100 fly on the penultimate day of competition.

Now, a further complication has arisen: following the introduction of the 50-meter strokes to the Olympic program, the top-two finishers in those events receive increased priority for Worlds selection. That means more doubles — swimmers qualifying for the team in multiple events — are required to get every potential qualifier on the plane to Singapore.

This lineup change is unlikely to affect the women’s team thanks to swimmers like Kate Douglass, Gretchen Walsh, Regan Smith and Katie Ledecky earning qualification in numerous events apiece. The men are a different story when six different butterflyers qualify for spots at Worlds.

There are four qualification priorities for this year’s Worlds team:

• Priority #1: The winners of every event plus the top-four finishers in the 100 and 200 freestyle
• Priority #2: The second-place finishers in every event aside from the 100 and 200 freestyle
• Priority #3: The fifth-place finishers in the 100 and 200 freestyle
• Priority #4: The sixth-place finishers in the 100 and 200 freestyle

Here is where the roster stands heading into Friday’s finals, with potential Worlds qualifiers split by priority. Swimmers qualifying in multiple events are grouped with their highest possible priority.

Men’s Roster

Priority #1 (16)

• Luca Urlando (200 butterfly)
• Jack Alexy (100 freestyle)
• Patrick Sammon (100 freestyle)
• Chris Guiliano (400 freestyle relay)
• Destin Lasco (400 freestyle relay)
• Bobby Finke (1500 freestyle, 400 IM)
• Luke Hobson (200 freestyle)
• Gabriel Jett (200 freestyle)
• Rex Maurer (800 freestyle relay)
• Henry McFadden (800 freestyle relay)
• Josh Matheny (200 breaststroke)
• Jack Aikins (200 backstroke)
• Dare Rose (50 butterfly)
• Shaine Casas (400 freestyle relay, 100 butterfly, 50 backstroke)
• Campbell McKean (50 breaststroke)
• Quintin McCarty (50 backstroke)

Priority #2 (6)

• Carson Foster (200 butterfly, 800 freestyle relay, 400 IM)
• David Johnston (1500 freestyle)
• AJ Pouch (200 breaststroke)
• Keaton Jones (200 backstroke)
• Michael Andrew (50 butterfly, 50 breaststroke)
• Thomas Heilman (100 butterfly)

Priority #3 (1)

• Jonny Kulow (400 freestyle relay)

Priority #4 (1)

• Kieran Smith (800 freestyle relay)

There have already been 24 men to achieve potential qualification for the World Championships team, meaning the only way that all make the final cut is if no more than two additional swimmers qualify over the final two days of competition. The situation gets even more complicated if five or more men make their way onto the team between Friday and Saturday’s finals. Such a scenario would leave out not only relay alternates but also swimmers who appeared to make the team via second-place finishes in their respective events.

Fortunately for those swimmers on the roster bubble, plenty more doubles are expected before the conclusion of the meet. Friday night, the qualifiers in the 400 free could include one or more of Rex Maurer, Luke Hobson and Kieran Smith, with Smith still in position to control his own destiny despite currently having the lowest priority. Josh Matheny, Campbell McKean and Michael Andrew are possibilities in the 100 breast, and Jack Aikins is favored in the 100 backstroke.

Bobby Finke is sure to add another double in the 800 free on the last night of the meet. Carson Foster and Shaine Casas are the logical picks for the 200 IM. The 50 freestyle qualifiers are likely to come from swimmers already on the team, with Andrew, Jack Alexy and Chris Guiliano favored.

If Jonny Kulow wants his relay spot to hold up and get him onto the team, he will be pulling for Maurer, Hobson and David Johnston in the 400 free final, hoping they can keep surging 16-year-old Luka Mijatovic at bay. Casas introduced a new complication by scratching the 100 back, opening the door for Will Modglin to crash the party. There is a path for everyone to make it, but the math is tricky.

The women’s side, meanwhile, has an odd situation to sort out thanks to the tie for fourth in the 200 free between Erin Gemmell and Anna Peplowski. Thanks to numerous doubles, it should not affect the final roster composition, but it leaves some asterisks for now. The tie in the 50 breast does not affect roster size since neither McKenzie Siroky nor Emma Weber have qualified in another event.

Women’s Roster

Priority #1 (12)

• Caroline Bricker (200 butterfly)
• Torri Huske (100 freestyle, 800 freestyle relay, 100 butterfly)
• Gretchen Walsh (100 freestyle, 50 butterfly, 100 butterfly)
• Simone Manuel (400 freestyle relay)
• Kate Douglass (400 freestyle relay, 200 breaststroke, 50 butterfly)
• Katie Ledecky (800 freestyle, 200 freestyle)
• Claire Weinstein (800 freestyle, 200 freestyle)
• Erin Gemmell OR Anna Peplowski (800 freestyle relay)
• Claire Curzan (200 backstroke)
• Emma Weyant (400 IM)
• Lilly King (50 breaststroke)
• Katharine Berkoff (50 backstroke)

Priority #2 (4)

• Regan Smith (200 butterfly, 200 backstroke, 50 backstroke)
• Alex Walsh (200 breaststroke)
• Katie Grimes (400 IM)
• McKenzie Siroky OR Emma Weber (50 breaststroke)

Priority #3 (1)

• Erin Gemmell (400 freestyle relay, 800 freestyle relay) OR Anna Peplowski (800 freestyle relay)

Priority #4 (2)

• Anna Moesch (400 freestyle relay)
• Bella Sims (800 freestyle relay)

Regardless of the results of the 200 free swim-off, there will only be one swimmer listed under Priority #3. Gemmell’s fifth-place finish in the 100 free will not end up affecting selection.

With only 19 swimmers having made the roster thus far, it looks likely that every possible qualifier will reach Singapore. Ledecky and Claire Weinstein are the strong favorites in the 400 free, and Ledecky has not lost the 1500 free in more than 12 years. Lilly King, Kate Douglass and Alex Walsh are favorites in the 100 breast with Weber and Siroky also in the final and the qualifiers in the 100 back, 200 IM and 50 free will surely come from existing members of the roster.

The only likely scenarios for new qualifiers will come in the 100 breast, if either Weber or Siroky makes the team but then loses the 50-meter swim-off, and the 1500 free following Ledecky.

When the dust settles Saturday evening, expect 21 or less women representing the United States in Singapore and a full men’s roster of 26. Swimmers like Kulow and Smith could be biting their nails until the very end.