With Arizona’s loss to Kansas on Monday night, the Miami (Ohio) RedHawks are now the nation’s lone undefeated team in men’s Division I college basketball. Unfortunately for the MAC leaders, their profile may not warrant an at-large bid at this point, let alone a spot on the top seed line, and that’s not likely to change over the final month before Selection Sunday.
But the Wildcats’ 82-78 loss at Allen Fieldhouse not only tarnished their record, it also cost Tommy Lloyd’s squad the number 1 spot overall in today’s projection. That goes to Michigan, the Big Ten leaders, who have been neck-and-neck with Arizona in both the results-based and predictive metrics tables for the past few weeks. So, the Wolverines (Midwest) are first with the Wildcats (West) second, followed by holdovers Duke (East) and UConn (South) both of whom lost over the weekend—the Blue Devils at North Carolina and the Huskies at Madison Square Garden to St. John’s.
Advertisement
Seed line no. 2 is the same as it was on Friday, with Illinois, Houston, Iowa State, and Nebraska holding their places. However, Kansas has joined seed line 3, replacing Gonzaga. The Jayhawks are currently behind Purdue, Michigan State, and SEC-leading Florida on the seed list. As for the Bulldogs, they’re behind Vanderbilt and ahead of Virginia and Texas Tech on line 4.
After today’s full projection and rundown, I’ll take a look at what to watch for during the midweek schedule.
NOTE: Changes since Friday’s projection are noted with (★) for new entrants, (▲) for teams moving up one or more seed lines, and (▼) for teams moving down one or more seed lines.
(1) Midwest (Chicago, Fri./Sun.)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Michigan (Big Ten)
★/★(16) NJIT (AE)/Morgan State (MEAC)
Advertisement
(8) NC State
▲(9) Georgia
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Alabama
(12) Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
(4) Virginia
(13) Cal Baptist (WAC)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Arkansas
(11) Santa Clara (WCC)
(3) Michigan State
▼(14) ETSU (SoCon)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Auburn
(10) UCLA
(2) Iowa State
▼(15) Wright State (Horizon)
(4) South (Houston, Thurs./Sat.)
Philadelphia (Fri./Sun.)
(1) UConn
(16) Merrimack (MAAC)/Bethune-Cookman (SWAC)
▼(8) Texas A&M
(9) Wisconsin
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(5) North Carolina
(12) Liberty (CUSA)
(4) Texas Tech
★(13) Hawai’i (Big West)
Buffalo (Thurs./Sat.)
(6) BYU
(11) Miami (Fla.)/New Mexico
Advertisement
(3) Purdue
(14) Portland State (Big Sky)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(7) Kentucky
▼(10) USC
(2) Houston
▲(15) Navy (Patriot)
(2) West (San José, Thurs./Sat.)
San Diego (Fri./Sun.)
(1) Arizona (Big 12)
▼(16) UT Martin (OVC)
(8) Villanova
(9) SMU
Portland (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) Tennessee
(12) Belmont (MVC)
▼(4) Gonzaga
★(13) UNCW (CAA)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
(6) Louisville
(11) Miami (Ohio) (MAC)
(3) Florida (SEC)
(14) North Dakota State (Summit)
Oklahoma City (Thurs./Sat.)
▲(7) Utah State (MW)
(10) Texas
(2) Nebraska
(15) Harvard (Ivy)
(3) East (Washington, D.C., Fri./Sun.)
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(1) Duke (ACC)
(16) LIU (NEC)
Advertisement
▲(8) Iowa
▼(9) UCF
Greenville (Thurs./Sat.)
(5) St. John’s (Big East)
★(12) South Florida (AC)
(4) Vanderbilt
(13) Winthrop (Big South)
Tampa (Fri./Sun.)
▼(6) Saint Louis (A 10)
(11) Indiana/San Diego State
▲(3) Kansas
(14) Troy (Sun Belt)
St. Louis (Fri./Sun.)
(7) Clemson
(10) Saint Mary’s
(2) Illinois
(15) Austin Peay (ASUN)
Rundown
Last Four Byes: USC, Saint Mary’s, UCLA, Texas
Last Four IN: Indiana, San Diego State, Miami (Fla.), New Mexico
First Four OUT: Ohio State, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Missouri
Next Four Out: Virginia Tech, Seton Hall, TCU, VCU
ARRIVALS (5): Hawai’i (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), NJIT (AE), South Florida (AC), UNCW (CAA)
Advertisement
DEPARTURES: Charleston (CAA), North Carolina Central (MEAC), Tulsa (AC), UC Irvine (Big West), UMBC (AE)
Conference Breakdown
Big Ten (10): Michigan (auto bid), Illinois, Nebraska, Purdue, Michigan State, Iowa, Wisconsin, USC, UCLA, Indiana (First Four)
SEC (10): Florida (auto bid), Vanderbilt, Alabama, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas
ACC (8): Duke (auto bid), Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Clemson, SMU, NC State, Miami (Fla.) (First Four)
Big 12 (7): Arizona (auto bid), Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, UCF
Big East (3): UConn, St. John’s (auto bid), Villanova
Advertisement
MW (3): Utah State (auto bid), San Diego State (First Four), New Mexico (First Four)
WCC (3): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara (auto bid)
24 one-bid conferences
All game times are p.m. Eastern unless noted. Games are listed in rough order of bracket importance.
Tuesday
Purdue at Nebraska, 7 (FS1)
Auburn at Vanderbilt, 7 (SECN)
North Carolina at Miami (Fla.), 7 (ESPN)
Wisconsin at Illinois, 8 (Peacock ($)/NBCSN)
BYU at Baylor, 7 (ESPN2)
Virginia at Florida State, 7 (ESPNU)
Notre Dame at SMU, 7 (ACCN)
Marquette at Villanova, 7:30 (TNT/TruTV)
George Mason at Richmond, 7 (Monumental SN/ESPN+ ($))
Advertisement
Tonight’s schedule starts with a huge one in the Big Ten, as not only are the Boilermakers and Cornhuskers both on the second seed line, the race for a quarterfinal bye in the Big Ten Tournament is heating up. Consider that there are currently five Big Ten teams ranked in the top 16 of this bracket (Michigan, Illinois, Purdue, Nebraska, and Michigan State). Only four of them at the most will be able to earn a bye to Friday in what’s an expanded event for 2026.
Elsewhere, Miami and Baylor both have opportunities at home to grab a quality win to boost their selection cases. Wisconsin and Auburn will have win on the road to boost their profiles.
Iowa State at TCU, 9 (FS1)
Arkansas at LSU, 9 (SECN)
Duke at Pitt, 9 (ESPN)
Houston at Utah, 9 (ESPN2)
Oklahoma State at Arizona State, 9 (CBSSN)
Fresno State at Utah State, 9 (MWN)
Two Big 12 bubble teams—both of whom are currently outside looking in—face contrasting challenges relative to their hopes. TCU gets a huge home game against current 2 seed Iowa State (and remember the Horned Frogs have a win over 3 seed Florida and played No. 1 overall Michigan close), while Oklahoma State cannot afford a road loss in Tempe, particularly after getting blown out in Tucson on Saturday.
Advertisement
Washington State at Gonzaga, 11 (ESPN2)
With a win, the Bulldogs will move back into a tie with Santa Clara (a half-game up) in the WCC standings, but the Broncos play Seattle on Wednesday. The two play at the Leavey Center on Saturday night.
Wednesday
Florida at Georgia, 7 (ESPN2)
USC at Ohio State, 6:30 (BTN)
Virginia Tech at Clemson, 7 (ACCN)
Alabama at Mississippi, 7 (SECN)
UConn at Butler, 7:30 (TNT/TruTV)
Iowa at Maryland, 6 (FS1)
Providence at Seton Hall, 7:30 (Peacock ($))
California at Syracuse, 7 (ESPNU)
South Florida at Wichita State, 7:30 (ESPN+ ($))
VCU at La Salle, 6:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Chattanooga at ETSU, 7 (CBSSN)
Austin Peay at Queens, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Advertisement
There’s a straight bubble shootout in Columbus, where the barely-in Trojans visit the barely-out Buckeyes. The new SEC leaders, meanwhile, travel to Athens, where the Bulldogs will look to defeat the Gators for the second straight season after getting blown out in Gainesville in the rivals’ earlier meeting. Florida has to keep its eyes on the prize tonight, even if a showdown with Kentucky looms on Saturday. In the ACC, Virginia Tech has a great chance to shore up its hopes by winning at Clemson, who also can’t get caught looking ahead to Saturday’s game at Duke.
Colorado at Texas Tech, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Michigan at Northwestern, 8:30 (BTN)
UAB at Tulsa, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Troy at Texas State, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Both the Red Raiders and Wolverines will be expected to take care of business.
Missouri at Texas A&M, 9 (SECN)
Tennessee at Mississippi State, 9 (ESPN2)
Pepperdine at Saint Mary’s, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
Seattle at Santa Clara, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
New Mexico at Grand Canyon, 10 (FS1)
Stanford at Boston College, 9 (ESPNU)
Liberty at New Mexico State, 9 (ESPN+ ($))
Advertisement
The Tigers (fourth team out) and Lobos (last team in) both hit the road, while two of the WCC’s top three will look to defend their home floors.
Thursday
Murray State at Indiana State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Winthrop at Gardner-Webb, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
High Point at USC Upstate, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
Detroit Mercy at Wright State, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
NJIT at New Hampshire, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
UMBC at Maine, 6 (ESPN+ ($))
Vermont at Binghamton, 6:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Marist at Merrimack, 7 (ESPN+ ($))
LIU at Wagner, 7 (NEC Front Row)
Cal Baptist at Southern Utah, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
UT Martin at Lindenwood, 8:30 (ESPN+ ($))
Portland State at Northern Arizona, 8 (ESPN+ ($))
Advertisement
Northern Iowa at Belmont, 9 (MVC TV/ESPN+ ($))
Hawai’i at Cal State Bakersfield, 9:30 (ESPN+ ($))
UC Irvine at Cal Poly, 10 (ESPN+ ($))
Thursday is a heavy on likely single-bid conference matchups, with the two highlighted Valley games perhaps the most intriguing after both Belmont and Murray State dropped games on Monday night.
Friday’s bracket will mark the rough one-month mark until the real thing arrives on March 15th.
