Michigan State is coming off a huge home win against Illinois but their last road trip was a disaster. The Spartans struggled terribly for 37 minutes at Minnesota on February 4 before a comeback effort in the last few minutes ultimately fell short.
This week, MSU travels to the Kohl Center in Madison, WI to take on the Badgers, where it looks like they will face an extremely challenging task.
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Wisconsin Overview
On Tuesday, Wisconsin basically mimicked what MSU did to Illinois – hung around the whole game and then won by a bucket in overtime. Except the Badgers did this at Illinois. Also, the Illini threes that didn’t fall in East Lansing did go in against Wisconsin – Illinois shot 15-33 (45%) – but Wisconsin was able to overcome this by keeping pace in going 16-36 (44%) on their three point attempts.
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The win in Champaign gives Wisconsin arguably the two most impressive wins in the Big Ten this season. UW handed Michigan its only loss so far, scoring a 91-88 win in Ann Arbor back on January 10.
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With the win at Illinois, Wisconsin improved to 17-7 overall and moved to within a game of Michigan State, Purdue, and Nebraska in the Big Ten Standings. The Spartans are tied with the Boilers and Huskers for third place at 10-3 while Wisconsin now enters the MSU game at 9-4.
Earlier in the Big Ten season, the Badgers lost decisively at Nebraska (90-60) and at home to Purdue (89-73) but, with the win at Illinois, Wisconsin is now 8-2 in their last ten games. The two losses were by one in overtime at Indiana and 73-71 at home to USC. The loss to IU was the game before the Badgers defeated Illinois so, like the Spartans, Wisconsin has shown the ability to bounce back from disappointment.
The Badgers also appear to have the ability win in multiple types of games. They scored over 90 points in wins against the Illini, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, and Michigan but they also won more a slugfest, 67-63, against Minnesota. One trend is evident during the Badgers’ recent 8-2 stretch: their biggest margin of victory has been nine points. So, Wisconsin can score, but they’re not blowing anyone out and are accustomed to playing in close games.
Wisconsin Rotation
The Badgers’ likely starters are:
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#32 6-10 FR F – Aleksas Bieliauskas. 4.4 ppg, 4 rpg, 44.3% FG, 31.1% 3FG
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#31 7-0 JR F – Nolan Winter. 14.3 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 55.3% FG, 34.3% 3FG
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#7 6-6 SR G – Andrew Rohde. 6.5 ppg, 2.8 apg, 39.4% FG, 32.6% 3FG. Virginia transfer, first year at WI.
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#25 6-4 JR G – John Blackwell. 18.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 40.8% FG, 34.2% 3FG.
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#2 6-3 SR G – Nick Boyd. 20 ppg, 3.7 apg, 47.1% FG, 34.2% 3FG. FAU @ SDSU transfer, first year at WI.
As the numbers above attest, Boyd and Blackwell are the keys for the Badgers and they both came through in the win at Illinois. Blackwell scored 24 and hit 5-11 on three pointers in 43 minutes. Boyd was good for 25 on 10-19 shooting in his 39 minutes.
This was while Bieliauskas, Winter, and Rhode combined for just 17 points against the Illini.
Three players generally provide help off the bench:
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#5 6-5 SO G – Jack Janicki. 2.3 ppg, 30.6% FG, 27.2% 3FG
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#0 6-5 SR G – Braeden Carrington. 7.0 ppg, 40.5% FG, 39.6% FG. Minnesota & Tulsa transfer, first year at WI.
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#22 6-10 SO F – Austin Rapp. 8.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 41.5% FG, 31.5% 3 FG. Portland transfer.
Rapp also came up big on Tuesday in Champaign with an 18 point performance, which included going 4-7 on his three point attempts.
Wisconsin Coaching
Greg Gard is in his 11th season as the Badgers’ head coach. This is after serving as Associate Head Coach under Bo Ryan from 2001-2015. So Gard obviously has deep roots in Madison and has won 65% of his games at Wisconsin. Under Gard, the Badgers won the 2020 and 2022 Big Ten regular season championships and made it to the Big Ten tournament championship game last year – after knocking MSU out in the semifinals with a monster game from John Tonje.
COLLEGE BASKETBALL: MAR 11 Big Ten Tournament – Michigan State v Wisconsin
The Badgers, however, haven’t really duplicated some of the NCAA tournament runs they experienced under Ryan. With Gard, Wisconsin made it to the Sweet 16 in 2016 and 2017 but hasn’t made it out of the tournament’s first weekend since then.
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Scouting Wisconsin
The Illinois game is not an exception: as noted above, Wisconsin’s strength is in their guards, specifically Boyd and Blackwell. Boyd transferred to Madison from San Diego State but, prior to that, he played for Florida Atlantic and went to the 2023 Final Four with the Owls.
Assuming Blackwell and Boyd match up with Jeremy Fears and Jordan Scott from MSU, then this has the makings of a fascinating backcourt duel. Scott is coming off a stellar effort in MSU’s overtime win over Illinois, where he helped hold the Illini’s Keaton Wagler to 2-16 shooting.
In addition to Wisconsin’s star guards, most everyone in the rotation can shoot from deep so it might be tough for the Spartan bigs to help if Boyd and Blackwell drive. Wisconsin can use Winter and Rapp to stretch the floor, trying to pull Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper away from the paint, opening driving lanes and taking away MSU’s rim protection. So the Spartan guards could have to hold their own when the Badger guards try to get into the paint.
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For as good as they are on the perimeter, Wisconsin hasn’t been quite as strong in the interior. The Badgers have been outrebounded and outscored in the paint somewhat consistently. Wisconsin did flip this script at Illinois though in winning the rebounding battle 38-35, including a 14-8 edge on the offensive glass. However, after outrebounding a tall Illinois team by 10 on Saturday, Michigan State should have an advantage here against Wisconsin.
On defense, like Illinois, Wisconsin attempts to take away the paint and force teams into jump shots, although they may rely more on defenders being in the right spot rather than on pure athleticism.
Keys to the Game for MSU
As indicated earlier, defending Blackwell and Boyd while not giving up open looks from the three point line should be important for the Spartans in this one. Blackwell is from Bloomfield Hills, MI and might like nothing more than to light up the Spartans.
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Michigan State needs a consistent 40 minutes from their guards, including Kur Teng, Trey Fort, and Denham Wojcik, all of whom will be called upon more after the Spartans lost Divine Ugochukwu against Minnesota and as we get deeper into the season. Relying on Fears to regularly go 40 minutes like he did at Illinois is probably not a recipe for success if the Spartans want him fresh for a deep tournament run.
While the Spartan guards may be counted on to lock down on D, Kohler, Cooper, and Coen Carr can look to dominate the glass and relentlessly attack in the paint. If Michigan State can just play to draw on the perimeter, their bigs can hopefully provide the separation in the paint.
Finally, Wisconsin’s efficient offense and ability to take care of the ball makes it tough for teams to run against them. It would not be surprising to see MSU force the issue here by trying to turn every defensive board into a transition chance or even going quickly off a Wisconsin make.
Mostly, the Spartans need to come ready to play out of the gate to avoid the catastrophe that was Minnesota.
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Wisconsin may have had some struggles earlier in the year to get to seven losses but they seem to be hitting their stride now. The Badgers suddenly have a say in the conference race and this just seems to have the makings of another classic Big Ten battle.
What have I missed, TOC? What are your keys to the game and how do you see this one playing out?
