Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 prediction | UFC 316 breakdown
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 316 main event.
dan tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 316 main event between bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and former champion Sean O’Malley.
Merab Dvalishvili UFC 316 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 19-4 MMA, 12-2 UFC
- Height: 5’6″ – Age: 34 – Weight: 135 lbs. – Reach: 68″
- Last fight: Decision win over Umar Nurmagomedov (Jan. 18, 2025)
- Camp: Syndicate MMA/Serra-Longo (Las Vegas)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + UFC bantamweight champion
- + Multiple sambo championships
- + Judo black belt
- + Amateur MMA accolades
- + 3 KO victories
- + 1 submission win
- + 1 first-round finish
- + Relentless pace and pressure
- + Steadily improved striking technique
- ^ Variates looks and levels
- + Strong inside the clinch
- ^ Works well from bodylock
- + Solid offensive wrestling
- ^ Chains attacks and scrambles well
- + Aggressive ground striker
- ^ Operates well in transition
- +/- 0-0 in career rematches
Sean O’Malley UFC 316 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 18-2 MMA, 10-2 UFC
- Height: 5’11” – Age: 30 – Weight: 135 lbs. – Reach: 72″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili (Sept. 14, 2024)
- Camp: MMA Lab (Arizona)
- Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + Former UFC bantamweight champion
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt
- + Amateur MMA titles
- + Amateur boxing and kickboxing experience
- + 12 KO victories
- + 1 submission win
- + 9 first-round finishes
- + KO power
- + Creative striking flow and feints
- ^ Variates looks and levels
- + Accurate shot selection
- ^ Coming forward and off the counter
- + Dynamic kicking arsenal
- + Shows improved offensive wrestling
- + Serviceable scrambling and grappling
- + Active and attacking guard
- +/- 1-0 in career rematches
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 point of interest: Striking the second time around
The main event for UFC 316 features a rematch for the bantamweight title between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley.
Although I’ve been fairly vocal about being exhausted by the number of rematches the UFC matchmakers continue to throw our way, it’s important to note that Dvalishvili and O’Malley’s first fight at UFC 306 was deceptively closer than most people give it credit for.
Aside from the one-round differential on most scorecards, O’Malley, who looks like the second coming of Ziggy Sobotka from “The Wire,” was able to find some real success in Rounds 3 and 5 when working behind his jab and going to the body on Dvalishvili (something I outlined as a potential pathway to victory for O’Malley in my initial breakdown of this fight). If a dummy like me can spot that opening pre-flop, then I suspect that O’Malley and his team can do the same.
O’Malley also cited a hip issue he was dealing with in their first fight, so I’d leave some room to be surprised as far as a more mobile “Sugar Show” goes this Saturday. Not only does more movement supplement O’Malley’s style and setups on the feet, but it could also force Dvalishvili to follow and close in unfavorable ways.
Despite arguably doing his best work when coming forward, Dvalishvili is not exactly impervious from a defensive standpoint. Moreover, Dvalishvili has also shown to be okay with sitting back and staging his offense off his back foot, which could be problematic if O’Malley uses these opportunities to steal the initiative of the fight.
In Dvalishvili’s defense, he has gotten a lot more diligent about having some sort of feinting presence, so I’ll be curious to see if he forces the action and seizes more initiative himself, considering that he’s already a lot of O’Malley’s speed and power.
Knees were also sneaky weapons for each fighter in tight spaces, but O’Malley may need to be more careful considering the closed-quarter combat that kind of shot selection can invite.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Between the way the first fight went and the crux of the champion’s game, winning the wrestling will be paramount for both parties this weekend.
A flexible takedown artist, Dvalishvili has proven to have many tools at his disposal.
Although Dvalishvili traditionally favors single-leg snatches (like a lot of sambo-based practitioners we’ve seen in the octagon), the Syndicate MMA standout has incorporated a lot more double-legs since training stateside.
From hitting shots in the open to completing doubles against the fence, Dvalishvili can be a difficult customer to dissuade. And when the champ does get his man down, he’s not shy about immediately looking to land strikes in transition.
Considering that Dvalishvili scored most of his takedowns on O’Malley along the fence, the increased footwork movement mentioned in the previous section will likely serve the former champion well if he’s able to make the improvements from last time out.
To O’Malley’s credit, he did show a solid getup process by using a 2-on-1 grip in conjunction with his turtling to his base.
Although back exposure is always dangerous at this level, Dvalishvili, with all due respect, doesn’t exactly have the “game over” level of grappling finishes like his Serra-Longo stablemate, Aljamain Sterling. Nevertheless, O’Malley will still need to be much more proactive and urgent than he was last September if he means to consistently scramble and separate from Dvalishvili.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 odds
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Davlishvili -295 and O’Malley +220 via FanDuel.
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 prediction, pick
Despite not disagreeing with who is favored, I think that O’Malley could be a lot livelier of an underdog than he’s being given credit for in this spot.
Aside from the first fight being a lot closer than most recall or realize, I tend to believe the injury issue O’Malley has been citing given the lack of his usual movements both on the feet and the floor. As I often say, seldom do rematches go the same way in MMA and O’Malley could serve us a brutal reminder of that fact this Saturday.
The potential problem, however, is that part of the reason why I believe that O’Malley was struggling with injuries the last time out is because he’s a fighter who seems to be constantly struggling with health issues regarding his physical durability on the regular.
As I’ve said many times before, long and lanky fighters who cut down to the lower weight classes in MMA have traditionally been susceptible to injury in and out of the cage. Whether we’re talking about Corey Hill’s shin snap back in the day at lightweight or Brandon Royval’s shoulder flopping out at flyweight, O’Malley has already managed to be one of the more notorious examples in this department and the kid is barely in his prime on paper.
I wish O’Malley no ill will and have traditionally credited his skills more than most in this space, but I have a hard time picking him here (even if I have a weird inkling about this fight).
I’ll officially side with Dvalishvili to win by decision.
Prediction: Dvalishvili by decision
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 start time, how to watch
As the main event, Dvalishvili and O’Malley are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 12:30 a.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
