Michael Cheika has long craved a second shot at the Wallabies, pretty much right from the moment he stepped down after Australia’s Rugby World Cup quarterfinal defeat in 2019.
Having guided the Wallabies to the final four years earlier, when they lost to New Zealand at Twickenham, Cheika’s magic dust had largely run dry by the time they were hammered 40-17 by Eddie Jones’ rampant side. The Wallabies coach made a call on his own future thereafter, knowing full well what was about to come if he didn’t.
But six years on, with the Wallabies role to be vacated by Joe Schmidt in eight months’ time, the question is not whether Cheika should be considered for the job at all, but whether the time is right for his return.
Cheika was always expected to throw his hat in the ring once his departure from Leicester was confirmed, so too Schmidt’s exit, and he was sighted at a meeting with Rugby Australia boss Phil Waugh in North Sydney on Tuesday afternoon.
The fact that sitdown was in public, and not behind closed doors, probably tells you all you need to know about Cheika’s hopes of replacing Schmidt as Wallabies coach. Still, there are those, including former Wallabies playmaker Matt Giteau, who see Cheika as a nice fit.
But is he right now, or could he at least again be sometime in the future?
THE CASE FOR CHEIKA
If the No. 1 goal for the next Wallabies coach is to the win the 2027 Rugby World Cup on home soil, then the runway is seemingly tailor-made for Cheika. The Australian has a history of turning teams around in his second year in charge, after steady improvement in year one.
That was evident at Leinster, where he went on to win a European Cup, before he led the Waratahs to their first ever Super Rugby title in 2014 in his second season, graduating to the Wallabies job later that year. As previously referenced, Cheika then took the Wallabies all the way to 2015 RWC final, where they got to within four points of the All Blacks before some Dan Carter brilliance drove New Zealand home.
Twelve months after his exit as Wallabies coach in 2019 he popped up as a consultant with Argentina, helping Mario Ledesma, who had previously worked on Cheika’s Wallabies staff, for a COVID-affected Tri Nations. It was during that tournament the Pumas secured their first ever win over the All Blacks.
Star Argentina back-rower Pablo Matera said at the time: “The first day he said, ‘Hey, what are you waiting for? You’ve got everything. You’ve got big physical players, young players, a lot of energy. Just go and take it.’ I think that made us believe a lot more in ourselves too. It’s been great to have him around.”
By 2022, Cheika had taken on the head coaching role with Argentina and, by September, the Pumas had their first ever win over the All Blacks on New Zealand soil. At the 2023 Rugby World Cup, Argentina finished fourth, having narrowly been pipped by England in the bronze-medal playoff.
Cheika’s track record of short-term success is undeniable, and only further supported by the fact he has taken Leicester from eighth to fourth following Dan McKellar’s — another Wallabies coaching candidate — unceremonious exit at the midway point of the Premiership season.
Cheika’s greatest strength is his ability to connect with players, to unite them in pursuit of a common goal. He is a master motivator, while his coaching acumen has improved significantly since he departed the Wallabies; his time with Argentina, even in rugby league with both the Sydney Roosters and Lebanon, and now Leicester reflects a coach who will take on any challenge, one who understands that there is something new to learn no matter the assignment.
That evolution needed to occur after 2019, too, given Cheika had so fiercely tied himself to his attack-at-all-costs mantra in Japan.
“I’m not going to go to a kick-and-defend game; maybe call me naive but that’s not what we’re going to do. I’d rather win our way. That’s the way Aussies want us to play,” a defiant Cheika had said.
Meanwhile, those who played for Lebanon under Cheika at the 2022 Rugby League World Cup were so impressed by the former Wallabies coach that they suggested he could take on an NRL club.
“I think he has a big future in the NRL if he wants a go at it. I think he could definitely coach a team one day if he sticks at it and if he wants to,” Parramatta and NSW Origin star Mitchell Moses said after the tournament.
“I definitely got a lot out of that, and I think if you speak to anyone in the camp, they will definitely agree with me.”
If Cheika was to return to the Wallabies job later this year, it would be with only a handful of players whom he took to the 2019 World Cup. With veteran James Slipper expected to call time on his Test career after the Lions series, that would leave just Nic White, Taniela Tupou and Lukhan Salakaia-Loto from last year’s spring tour squad who also played under Cheika in Japan in 2019.
Would this emerging Wallabies group, which has blossomed under Schmidt, react in a similar vein to the 2015 cohort? That is a question RA officials have surely already weighed up.
THE CASE AGAINST CHEIKA
If Cheika’s greatest asset is his motivational skill, then his biggest weakness is his temperament — he is a coach who too often blows his top, with referees the usual target. When his teams falter, the Australian has typically gone on the defensive.
On some occasions his gripes have been warranted, in many others they have not. When he was last on the global stage, after the Pumas’ lost the bronze medal game in Paris two years ago, Cheika did not cover himself in glory. His post-match interview had more than a waft of sour grapes.
And it’s that prickly personality that some believe contribute to an almost unconscious bias from officials that have made Cheika-coached teams among the most penalised in the game, as the Wallabies were in 2017. There was also Cheika’s alleged “f—ing cheats” mouthing during Australia’s loss to England at the end of 2018, after skipper Michael Hooper had been denied a try for offside.
Cheika’s rap sheet goes on, while his most recent misstep resulted in a one-game ban for “disrespecting an independent doctor“, a charge that the Australian disputed, and later said of: “I felt the decision wasn’t right and it hurts my reputation … I almost felt like they don’t really want me to be in the league here.”
At a time when RA is trying to foster a more stable, competent image, the reappointment of Cheika would not appear to fit such a brief.
What will also likely count against Cheika is his dislike of having a coaching director sitting above him. He was never a fan of Scott Johnson’s arrival in such a role at RA at the end of 2018, nor the three-person selection panel which was instigated ahead of the World Cup.
“Scott’s a lovely bloke and I get on fine with him but I’m not really into that type of thing,” Cheika said following his exit in 2019. “I like to take responsibility. I found that a little bit difficult at times.”
Given then that Schmidt has reportedly offered to work with the Wallabies on an ongoing basis in a consultancy role, Cheika’s stocks would likely take a further hit because of his desire to be the sole man in charge.
And in the weeks that followed Cheika’s departure in 2019, a run-in with then-RA chief executive Raelene Castle at an official pre-RWC function was also revealed. Cheika revealed said that he had next to no relationship with either Castle or then-RA chairman Cameron Clyne.
While a repeat of such an ugly episode would be extremely unlikely — current RA boss Phil Waugh and Cheika have already broken bread — it is only natural that players, supporters and the media would reflect on the Australian’s first stint as Wallabies coach.
The Eddie Jones catastrophe, while in no way linked to Cheika, also casts a dark cloud. Australia rugby was burned going back to the future once before, there will be warnings against doing so a second time because of it.
THE OUTLOOK, THEN?
Given Waugh’s “contingency plan” remarks at the end of last year, when the RA boss spruiked the ability of Australia’s Super Rugby coaching cohort to step up, it is believed Cheika is well down the pecking order in the race to replace Schmidt.
With continuity ahead of the World Cup in 2027 at the forefront of RA’s thinking, Les Kiss remains the popular pick, despite some entanglement with the Queensland Rugby Union and his contract through to the middle of next year.
Behind Kiss, both Dan McKellar and Stephen Larkham are also reported front-runners.
If one of the leading Super Rugby trio is appointed, then Cheika may turn his attention to another international vacancy at Wales. That assignment has its own unique challenges, but one where Cheika may thrive given the current mire Welsh rugby is in.
But that shouldn’t mean the Wallabies door is closed on Cheika forever, either. At 57, he could yet coach at the top level for another eight to 10 years, meaning he would be turning 64 at the start of the post-2031 World Cup cycle.
If there is a final Cheika chapter in Wallabies history still to be written, it may be then that time has healed all wounds. And that Australian rugby is ready for Michael Cheika once more.
