• What: Michigan State at Illinois
• When: 8 p.m. (ET) Saturday
• Where: State Farm Center, Champaign, Illinois
• TV/Radio: FOX/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), 84 (Illinois broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 19-5 overall, 10-3 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 9 in both the Coaches Poll and in The Associated Press Poll, and is No. 23 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com and No. 24 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. Illinois is 17-8 overall, 9-6 in the Big Ten and unranked in the polls. The Illini are No. 15 nationally, per Kenpom, and 12 in the NET rankings.
• Projected betting line: Illinois -4 (via Kenpom’s prediction, which is where Vegas gets its lines these days)
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 726-300 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Illinois — Brad Underwood is 269-123 in his 12th season as an NCAA head coach, including 160-96 in his eighth season with the Illini.
• Series: MSU leads 66-64 all-time, having won the first meeting this season, 80-78, on Jan. 19 at Breslin Center.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 5.2
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.5
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.4
G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 10.3
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.4
Illinois
C (13) Tomislav Ivisic (7-1) 13.1
F (21) Morez Johnson (6-9) 6.8
F (3) Ben Humrichous (6-9) 8.6
G (4) Kylan Boswell (6-2) 11.5
G (32) Kasparas Jakucionis (6-6) 16.0
• MSU update: The Spartans have hit a familiar February swoon, losing three of their last four games, none more painful than Tuesday’s home loss to Indiana, which prevented Tom Izzo from breaking Bob Knight’s Big Ten wins record for the time being and, more importantly, put MSU’s Big Ten title hopes in peril. Izzo said Thursday it was his fault that his team wasn’t prepared for Indiana’s unexpected zone defense and said that error won’t happen again. Given MSU’s outside shooting woes, it’s likely another opponent will test that preparedness. At 19-5 overall and 10-3 in the Big Ten, the Spartans are still in the mix for a conference title and good NCAA tournament seed, but the schedule ahead is unforgiving. After Saturday’s game at Illinois, they host Purdue on Tuesday, then play at Michigan, before traveling to Maryland and hosting Wisconsin.
• Illinois update: The Illini seem to have made it through a rough patch and are playing well again, as they were heading into the first meeting with the Spartans. Starting center Tomislav Ivisic, who missed three games ill with mono, has looked like himself again in the last two games, a dominant win at Minnesota and home win over UCLA. Illinois has some good outside shooters — namely freshman guard Kasparas Jakucionis — but, in league play, the Illini are shooting 29% from beyond the arc, dead last in the Big Ten, even worse than MSU.
• Matchup analysis: Remember how Illinois freshman wing Will Riley came out of seemingly nowhere to score 16 points the first 10 minutes against the Spartans in January? Well, that wasn’t a fluke. It was just his coming out party. He’s now on NBA draft boards and has since scored 27 and 24 points, respectively, in two recent games. Safe to say Riley be more prominent on the scouting report this time and MSU will guard him with someone other than Jase Richardson, who Riley ate up in East Lansing. You’ll likely see a lot of Coen Carr on Riley. Also emerging for the Illini: 6-9 freshman power forward Morez Johnson, who gave MSU problems last time, too. Tom Izzo is in love with Johnson’s game, describing him as a more skilled Antonio Smith.
The key to Illinois, however, remains their European duo, point guard Kasparas Jakucionis, and center Tomislav Ivisic. Most of Illinois’ losses can be traced to one of them missing the game or, at MSU, Jakucionis playing only nine minutes before fouling out. MSU is likely to get a heavy dose of Jakucionis, who’s scored 24 points in each of the Illini’s last two games, while playing at least 36 minutes.
MSU got a great game from Tre Holloman in the first meeting and a good performance from Jeremy Fears Jr. The Spartans need Fears to take care of them and set the tone to have a chance in this one.
• Prediction: This is going to be quite the scene Saturday night in Champaign. The Illini have been waiting for this one, the crowd and the team. The Spartans have played well enough at times this season to win a game like this. But not lately.
• Make it: Illinois 77, MSU 71
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Illinois: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
