Whatever happened to the 2-seed/3-seed Sweet 16 matchup?
Over the past 10 NCAA tournaments (2016-25), just 14 of the 40 potential regions have featured a 2-3 matchup. That might have seemed like bad news for East 3-seed Michigan State basketball before March Madness tipped off. But hey! – The Spartans made it, as did 2-seed Connecticut, as they match up on Friday, March 27 (9:45 p.m., CBS).
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The worse news for MSU? Of those 14 2-3 Sweet 16 games, the 3-seed has pulled off the upset just 5 times – and just twice in the past six tourneys: 2023, when Gonzaga dropped UCLA, and 2024, when Illinois flipped Iowa State. (Though, we’ll note: There’s already one 2-3 upset in this year’s tourney, with Illinois taking down Houston in the South region on Thursday.)
Michigan State basketball player Jeremy Fears Jr. talks with the media in the locker room before heading with three other teammates for a press conference at Capital One Arena in Washington DC on Thursday, March 26, 2026. The Spartans plays the University of Connecticut on Friday evening.
Does that mean Jeremy Fears Jr. and the Spartans are doomed against the Huskies? Four Free Press sports writers chime in on how they think the game in Washington will go:
Carlos Monarrez
If the Spartans can limit center Tarris Reed Jr.’s effectiveness – he had 10 points and 13 rebounds against UCLA last weekend – and cool off Alex Karaban (27 points against UCLA) and keep the Huskies out of the paint, they’ll move on. But that’s asking a lot against one of the best-coached teams in the country. The pick: UConn 74, MSU 69.
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Jeff Seidel
The Spartans reached a new level by winning the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. And it starts with talented point guard Jeremy Fears Jr., who has been fantastic. Coen Carr is going to put on another show doing his thing. Rebounding. Yes, rebounding. And throwing down slam dunks, of course.
While this is the closest game of the Sweet 16 – at least on paper –the difference will be the Spartans big men, hitting clutch shots. And the Spartans will get just enough production from their freshmen – the jitters should be gone. Take care of turnovers and they will advance. The pick: MSU 70, UConn 67.
Chris Solari
How the Spartans react to another early deficit on their biggest stage of the season will be critical, and Fears once again wills them back by halftime. But the Huskies’ interior depth and strength, particularly Reed’s physicality, gets Kohler, Cooper and Ward into foul trouble and exploits MSU’s thin post rotation. Ultimately, Fears’ stellar performance isn’t enough, and the Spartans’ season ends short of last season’s Elite Eight trip. The pick: UConn 78, MSU 73.
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Shawn Windsor
The Huskies may have the better recent pedigree and a little more talent, but the Spartans will benefit from their exhibition meeting back in October. Tom Izzo gets back to the Elite Eight for the second year in a row. The pick: MSU 71, UConn 68.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State basketball Sweet 16 predictions vs Connecticut
