• What: Michigan State vs. Penn State
• When: 7:30 p.m. Wednesday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: Big Ten Network/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 195 (MSU broadcast), 372 (Penn State broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 14-2 overall, 5-0 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 12 in both the Coaches Poll and in The Associated Press Poll, and is No. 14 via the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com. Penn State is 12-5 overall, 2-4 in the Big Ten and unranked by the major polls, while being rated No. 50 by Kenpom.
• Projected betting line: MSU -10 (via Kenpom’s prediction, which is where Vegas gets its line these days)
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 721-297 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Penn State — Mike Rhoades is 401-211 in his 21st season as a head coach, including 28-22 in his second season as with the Nittany Lions. He spent the previous six seasons as the head coach at VCU.
• Series: MSU leads 45-10 all-time, including two wins last season.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 6.0
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 7.9
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 14.1
G (5) Tre Holloman (6-2) 7.4
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.9
Penn State
C (14) Yanic Konan Niederhauser (7-0) 12.1
F (5) Puff Johnson (6-8) 10.6
F (24) Zach Hicks (6-8) 12.2
G (4) Freddie Dilione V (6-4) 10.4
G (1) Ace Baldwin Jr. (6-1) 13.9
• MSU update: The Spartans have won nine straight games, including Sunday’s 78-68 win at Northwestern. Through a 5-0 start in conference play, MSU leads the Big Ten in average scoring margin (21.2 points), assists (20.0 per game) and free-throw percentage (84.5%), and is second in blocked shots (5.2 per game) and rebounds (39.6), and third in field-goal percentage (50.2%) and assist-to-turnover ratio. Also notably, in conference play, the Spartans are the fifth-best out of 18 teams in 3-point shooting at 37.0%, which counters the notion this is a poor outside shooting group. MSU is really just digging itself out of an awful 3-point shooting start in non-conference play, which continues to drag down its overall percentage. After Wednesday night’s game against Penn State, the Spartans host a perceived Big Ten title contender in Illinois at noon on Sunday.
• Penn State update: The Nittany Lions are coming of a difficult-to-stomach 82-81 home loss to Oregon on Sunday, in a game they played without starting point guard, leading scorer and defensive catalyst Ace Baldwin Jr., who missed the game with a back injury that he aggravated days earlier in a loss to Illinois. Tom Izzo said he’s heard Baldwin is supposed to play against MSU. He’s second in the Big Ten in assists, averaging 8.0 per game and is among the league leaders in free throws made and free-throw percentage (94.5%). Penn State has yet to win a true road game this season, with notable home wins over Purdue and Northwestern. The Nittany Lions lead the Big Ten in steals at 9.4 per game, stemming from a pressure-heavy defense.
• Matchup analysis: I know Penn State nearly just beat a good Oregon team without Baldwin, but it’s hard to imagine the Nittany Lions coming into Breslin Center and putting a scare into the Spartans without the guy who makes them go on both ends. If Baldwin is healthy enough to play and be his usual self, Penn State might be a chore to fend off. MSU should be helped by its experience earlier this season with Samford, which also played a chaotic pressure defense. It took the Spartans a while to get control of that game. The emergence of 6-foot-6 senior Nick Kern has given the Nittany Lions another threat attacking the rim. Other than Zach Hicks, who’s made 42 of 99 3-pointers this season, Penn State is not a good outside shooting team. There are common threads to the Nittany Lions’ best performances — forcing turnovers and getting to the line. Against Purdue, for example, Penn State forced 24 turnovers and made 28 of 32 free throws. In beating Northwestern, the Nittany Lions made 36 of 45 free throws. They will attack the rim and live at the free-throw line if they can.
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• Prediction: I like this matchup for MSU a lot. The Spartans have the guards to deal with Penn State’s pressure, they’ve seen this sort of pressure before this season, and MSU doesn’t mind a track meet. If the Nittany Lions had another couple shooters, they’d be a really good Big Ten team. Instead, they need you to be bothered by them. I don’t think MSU will be. I’d be surprised if the game’s in doubt in the final minutes, even if Baldwin is good to go.
• Make it: MSU 84, Penn State 70
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Penn State: Prediction, preview, TV, betting line
