• What: Michigan State vs. Purdue
• When: 7 p.m. Tuesday
• Where: Breslin Center
• TV/Radio: Streaming on Peacock/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 85 (MSU broadcast), 196 (Illinois broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 20-5 overall, 11-3 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 13 in the Coaches poll and No. 14 in The Associated Press poll, and is No. 17 per the college basketball analytics site Kenpom.com and No. 21 in the NCAA’s NET rankings. Purdue is 19-7 overall, 11-4 in the Big Ten and 14 in the Coaches poll and 13 in the AP poll. The Boilermakers are No. 10 nationally, per Kenpom, and 13 in the NET rankings.
• Projected betting line: MSU -2 (via Kenpom, which is where Vegas gets its betting lines these days)
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 727-300 in his 30th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Purdue — Matt Painter is 491-215 in his 21st season as a head coach, including 466-210 in 20 seasons with the Boilermakers.
• Series: Purdue leads 76-56 all-time, including two wins last year, at Mackey Arena in late February and then again in the Big Ten tournament in Minneapolis. This is the only scheduled meeting this season.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (10) Szymon Zapala (7-0) 5.0
F (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 8.2
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 13.2
G (11) Jase Richardson (6-3) 10.3
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 7.3
Purdue
F (4) Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9) 19.4
F (1) Caleb Furst (6-10) 5.1
G (2) Fletcher Loyer (6-5) 13.9
G (0) C.J. Cox (6-3) 6.6
PG (3) Braden Smith (6-0) 16.0
• MSU update: The Spartans are back in the thick of the Big Ten title hunt after a 79-65 road win Saturday at Illinois. At 11-3 in league play, MSU is a game back of Michigan (12-2), a half-game up on Purdue (11-4) and a game in front of Wisconsin (10-4), which is the hottest team in the conference right now. The Spartans are where they are thanks in large part to their defense and rebounding. In league games, they lead the Big Ten in defensive efficiency, per Kenpom, as well as 3-point defense, block rate and offensive rebound percentage. After Tuesday night’s tilt with the Boilermakers, MSU travels to Michigan for a date Friday night at Crisler Center. The Wolverines, who beat Ohio State on Sunday, don’t play again until then.
• Purdue update: The Boilermakers have lost two straight games for the first time in Big Ten play this season, falling at Michigan (75-73) last Tuesday and then at home to Wisconsin (94-84) on Saturday. While MSU has largely made its hay on defense, Purdue has done so on both ends. In conference games, the Boilermakers lead the Big Ten in offensive efficiency, while ranking third in defensive efficiency and first in opponent turnover percentage, largely because they come up with so many steals. Junior point guard Braden Smith leads the Big Ten and is second in the nation in assists at 8.8 per game. Junior power forward Trey Kaufman-Renn is third in the Big Ten at 19.4 points per game.
• Matchup analysis: MSU will gladly take this version of Purdue over the one that featured big man Zach Edey. But dealing with what Tre Kaufman-Renn has become as a post player and driver on the block is no picnic. Kaufman-Renn is the sort of matchup that can get an opponent in foul trouble. Purdue still plays big in the frontcourt for the most part, which means MSU will likely react by playing big. Braden Smith drives the train on both ends. He won’t let Purdue make the mistakes Illinois did with a young point guard late against the Spartans. Smith and Fletcher Loyer are both dangerous 3-point shooters. Loyer is making 45% of his 3s this season. Starting guard C.J. Cox is also above 42%. This is an efficient Boilermakers offense that can hurt you inside and out. Defensively, while they cause turnovers, they do not protect the rim very well post-Edey. That fits with what MSU wants to do offensively, which is put pressure on the basket with its guards getting downhill and its forwards and big men living at the front of the rim.
• Prediction: These are two evenly matched teams. Each can cause headaches for the other. MSU just lost to Indiana at home and beat Illinois in Champaign, so home-court advantage might not be the best predictor with this team. But it’s MSU’s advantage in this one.
• Make it: MSU 80, Purdue 77
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball vs. Purdue: Prediction, how to watch, betting line
