Here’s a scouting report, some Mizzou notes, matchups to watch and what I think will lead to a win as the No. 15 Tigers (17-4, 6-2) take on the No. 4 Tennessee Volunteers (18-4, 5-4) at 6 p.m. (SEC Network).
Tennessee spent five weeks at No. 1 in the rankings after starting the season 14-0 with wins against then-No. 13 Baylor, Virginia, Syracuse, Illinois and then-No. 23 Arkansas to kick off the SEC schedule.
But the Vols fell in a blowout to Florida, knocking Tennessee out of the top 5 for the next three weeks as the Volunteers struggled in a 3-4 stretch with wins against Texas, then-No. 23 Georgia, and then-No. 14 Mississippi State, while dropping games against Vanderbilt, No. 1 Auburn and then-No. 12 Kentucky after the loss to the Gators.
But the Volunteers got their revenge against Florida as they enter today’s matchup back in the top five after a 64-44 win against the Gators without starting guard Zakai Zeigler or starting forward Igor Milicic.
Both are expected to be back for today’s matchup.
The Volunteers come into the day with the No. 3 scoring defense in the country, allowing just 58.6 points per game, while scoring 74.5, still averaging a 15.9 scoring margin after dropping half of the team’s past eight games.
Tennessee shoots 44.4 percent from the field, 33.2 percent from 3 and 75.4 percent from the free-throw line with 14 attempts per game at the stripe.
The Volunteers hold opponents to just 36.1 percent overall, 26 percent from 3 and 72.6 percent on 11 free-throw attempts per game.
Opponents commit 13.4 turnovers per game against Tennessee, leading to 17.1 points per game, while the Volunteers block 5.2 shots per contest.
Fifth-year guard Chaz Lanier (6-foot-5, 207-pounds) leads the way for Tennessee with 17.9 points per game, while bringing down 3.2 rebounds per contest.
Ziegler (5-9, 172) is next at 12.3 points per game, while he is fifth in the country with an average of 7.4 assists per contest.
Senior guard Jordan Gainey (6-4, 190) adds 11.0 points and 3.3 rebounds per game off the bench after starting for the first time this season against Florida in Zeigler’s absence.
Milicic (6-10, 225) adds 10.4 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, while senior guard Jahmai Mashack (6-4, 202) has started all 22 games and adds 6.0 points and 4.0 rebounds per game.
The Volunteers usually go with somewhere between a seven- and nine-player rotation, with sophomore forward Cade Philliips (6-9, 216), freshman guard Bishop Boswell (6-4, 203) and fifth-year guard Darlinstone Dubar (6-6, 220) coming off the bench regularly.
Tennessee is No. 4 in the NET rankings, Missouri is No. 21.
Tennessee leads the all-time series 12-10 and won last year’s lone matchup 72-67 in Columbia.
The Tigers last beat Tennessee on March 10, 2023 in the SEC Tournament, and won that season’s regular-season matchup in Knoxville on a DeAndre Gholston half-court buzzer beater.
The road team has won the game in the past six matchups in this series … Missouri is 6-2 in SEC play for the first time. … In his last three matchups against ranked opponents, Caleb Grill is averaging 21.3 points per game on 5.7 made attempts from deep … Grill has shot exactly 100 3-pointers this season, sinking 49 of them … Mark Mitchell currently has 968 career points … Dennis Gates won his 100th career game as a head coach on Saturday, 50 at Missouri and 50 at Cleveland State. … Missouri is 14-0 this season when scoring 80 points and 15-1 when holding opponents under 80 points … The Tigers have led by at least 10 points at halftime in 14-of-21 games this season.
Caleb Grill vs. Tennessee’s 3-point defense
It’s no secret that Grill has been the key to Missouri’s success recently and the strong majority of his damage comes from deep. The Volunteers hold opponents to just 26.0 percent shooting from deep this season (148-of-570) and haven’t allowed an opposing player to hit more than four attempts from beyond the arc since Nov. 17 when Austin Peay’s Isaac Haney went 5-of-11 from 3 in a 103-68 Tennessee win.
The Volunteers have held seven conference opponents to fewer than 10 made attempts from deep and two to fewer than five.
Grill was 6-of-11 from deep against Mississippi State, 5-of-9 against Ole Miss and 6-of-10 against Florida.
If Grill is able to have another strong game against a ranked opponent that is great a t defending the 3-point line, that will go a long way for another Missouri upset.
The Tiger offense vs. Tennessee’s rim defense
The Tigers don’t shoot midrange shots, that doesn’t work with Gates’ analytic philosophy. Shots at the rim and 3s are the most efficient ways to score.
And those are the two best parts of Tennessee’s defense.
If the Volunteers are able to shut down the Tigers’ attempts from deep, then Missouri will have to win this game the way it beat Cal, by getting into the paint and putting in free throw after free throw.
But the Volunteers are 16th in the country in blocks per game.
How the Tigers handle that rim protection is going to be a major key.
I’m not terribly worried about Missouri’s defense keeping the Volunteer offense from running by it. What worries me is the Volunteers’ ability to muddy up the game.
Specifically I’m worried about a game that looks similar to the Texas matchup in the early going.
So what I’m looking for is just some shots to fall in the opening minutes. Doesn’t matter which shots, 3s, layups, free throws, whatever.
Just some sense of ability to put points up against the Tennessee defense with the starters plus Grill and Josh Gray on the floor in those first handful of minutes.
