MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for July 18

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Another busy slate across the Majors presents lots of opportunity for long balls in my MLB player props home run analysis.

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I’ll get things started with Heriberto Hernandez, followed by James Wood and Yordan Alvarez.

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, July 18.

Best MLB home run props today

Home run pick: Heriberto Hernandez (+370)

Heriberto Hernandez is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He owns a .571 ISO across his last nine games, homering four times during that span. Hernandez is also averaging a 20.4-degree launch angle and 30% barrel rate in the last two weeks.

He’ll face Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Shane Drohan today, who is only allowing 0.99 HR/9 over the last month. However, Hernandez has showcased power against southpaws, posting a .338 ISO.

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Milwaukee’s bullpen has also limited home runs lately, but its 43.3% hard-hit rate across the last 40 innings provides some vulnerability.

I’ll play this pick down to +300. 

• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Marlins.TV

Home run pick: James Wood (+243)

James Wood enters the second half in impressive power form, clubbing six home runs across his last nine games. The slugger has a mind-boggling .633 ISO during that span, and 59.1% hard-hit rate.

Tonight’s matchup happens to be a favorable one. He’ll face Athletics right-hander J.T. Ginn, who has allowed 1.75 HR/9 over his last five appearances. The A’s bullpen has struggled with long ball lately as well, giving up 2.55 HR/9 in the last two weeks.

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Sutter Health Park in Sacramento happens to also be hitter-friendly, although Wood’s raw power doesn’t exactly need help.

I’ll play this pick down to +200. 

• Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Nationals.TV

Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+296)

Yordan Alvarez continues to punish opposing pitchers. He carries a .400 ISO over his last nine contests into tonight’s matchup against Trevor Rogers, homering four times during that span. He’s consistently squaring up the baseball as well, posting a 51.7% hard-hit rate over the last month.

I won’t sit here and say this is going to be an easy matchup. Rogers isn’t allowing many bombs lately, and the Baltimore Orioles bullpen has limited power as of late. However, it’s hard to overlook Alvarez’s success against left-handers, carrying a .286 average and .265 ISO.

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I’ll play this pick down to +250. 

• Where to watch: SCHN, MASN

Quinn Allen’s 2026 Transparency Record

• HR picks: 16-78, -3.49 units

Today’s HR parlay

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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