MILWAUKEE — In the midst of a heavyweight battle for first place in the National League Central, the Chicago Cubs are still scouring the landscape for help before Thursday’s MLB trade deadline. On their wish list: two starters, a reliever, a potential upgrade at third base and perhaps a backup center fielder.
The man to get it done? President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, who received a multiyear contract extension Monday as ownership believes he’s the right person to lead the organization during this trade deadline and beyond.
With such a lengthy to-do list, why hasn’t Hoyer made a move yet with just days left to deal? What teams want for those players has been sky high at the top and middle of the market, according to sources familiar with the Cubs’ situation.
Sometimes, a deadline is all it takes to make things happen.
“No one’s untouchable,” Hoyer said recently. “But at the same time, we have a lot of really good prospects and you have to feel like you’re getting commensurate value.”
While the Cubs attempt to find the right fits for their deadline needs, here is where things stand at each area they hope to address.
Starting pitching
Of all their needs, the Cubs view finding help on the mound to be their biggest priority, according to sources familiar with their thinking.
They rank 14th in the majors in starting pitching ERA, and their need for help is amplified by their lack of depth after Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga at the top of the rotation.
“They’ve known that was a need since Justin Steele went down,” a rival executive said.
The Cubs have “kicked the tires in a lot of places” in their search for pitching, one American League source said.
That includes starting pitchers at the top of this year’s deadline like Washington Nationals star MacKenzie Gore, those in the middle like Chicago White Sox righty Adrian Houser and even a player returning from injury in Cleveland Guardians starter Shane Bieber. Bieber could be this year’s deadline version of Boyd, who helped Cleveland down the stretch last year before signing with the Cubs in the offseason.
The Cubs have talked at various times to the Miami Marlins and Tampa Bay Rays about their potentially available starters and to the Pittsburgh Pirates about Mitch Keller, as well as a handful of other teams, according to sources. The Cubs are also candidates to land one of Arizona’s available pitchers — though, after another so-so performance by Zac Gallen over the weekend, righty Merrill Kelly, 37, is the more reliable of the two Diamondbacks pitchers. And they also have shown interest in Baltimore’s Zach Eflin.
“The Cubs are ready to pounce if the prices come down,” another source said.
The return needed to land Gore would be astronomical and is prohibitive to a deal for the strikeout artist. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has said that the key player the Nationals are rumored to want for Gore is third baseman Matt Shaw, who isn’t on the table.
The White Sox are looking for a prospect ranked in the teens for Houser and even Gore’s teammate, Michael Soroka, would take a higher-than-expected return despite a 4.87 ERA.
The Cubs are determined to enter August with a deeper rotation, so a move is likely. But which team lowers its demands is still the big question.
Relief pitching
Similar to the starters, the Cubs’ bullpen also ranks in the middle of the pack in ERA this season, with clear opportunities for improvement if Chicago can find the right deadline match and multiple relievers needed for the high stakes of the months ahead. The Cubs’ core group of Daniel Palencia, Caleb Thielbar, Ryan Brasier, Drew Pomeranz and Brad Keller has been solid, but those latter few have shown some cracks recently. This is also Palencia’s first chance at being a closer, so the Cubs wouldn’t mind pairing someone with some experience, considering Ryan Pressly has been shaky at best.
The Cubs are among the teams that would love to acquire either Griffin Jax or Danny Coulombe or closer Jhoan Duran from the Minnesota Twins. But just as they do for the available starting pitchers, the Cubs have their ‘irons in the fire’ for the relievers as well, according to the AL source.
There is one closer who could be on the move but can be ruled out for the Cubs — Ryan Helsley, who plays for the rival Cardinals. But Nationals reliever Kyle Finnegan, Pirates closer David Bednar, Braves righty Raisel Iglesias and Rays ninth-inning man Pete Fairbanks are all possibilities if Duran isn’t attainable.
Third base
The first trade deadline domino at third base fell last week when the New York Yankees acquired Ryan McMahon from the Colorado Rockies. But the Cubs weren’t really in on McMahon, according to league sources, which provides a window into how they are approaching the hot corner this month.
Shaw has been much better recently, including posting a ..387/.406/.839 slash line since the All-Star break while playing stellar defense.
“Matt is getting a great opportunity,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “He’s doing the best to take advantage of it. … You should have to earn your spots on teams like this. That’s completely fair. It doesn’t get easier. You have to earn that. Matt is doing a great job of that.”
Shaw’s improvement has given Chicago confidence that he can handle the position the rest of this season. It also allows the Cubs to see if a big deal develops instead of forcing one to fill a lineup spot.
Chicago is in constant contact with the Arizona Diamondbacks about possibly acquiring third baseman Eugenio Suarez and Kelly in what likely would be the biggest blockbuster of this deadline. It’s probably a long shot because Chicago’s biggest need is on the mound, but it’s not impossible.
What the Cubs have to offer
Though expectations on trade return are bound to come down somewhat in the coming days, the reality of this deadline is that there are more teams looking to add than subtract, so it will take big offers to land the best players available.
The Cubs are willing to part with their top prospect, OF Owen Caissie, but not for a player they’ll have for one season. The slugging outfielder is one of the three players drawing the most interest from opposing teams, along with Shaw and Double-A pitcher Jaxon Wiggins. Chicago has made 22-year-old outfielder Kevin Alcantara available, but so far, he hasn’t drawn the interest the other players have.
“I mean that’s one of the fun parts of this job is you kind of have to alter your playbook,” Hoyer said about being nimble and switching directions.
One thing the Cubs won’t do this year is blow up their farm system to increase their playoff odds — which sit at 94.7%, according to FanGraphs.
The Cubs are in a different place this July than they were in 2016, when they moved their No.1 prospect — Gleyber Torres — for closer Aroldis Chapman despite having about a 99% chance of making the postseason. But the move helped them win the World Series.
If that deadline is what all-in looks like on the North Side, the vibe heading into Thursday could be best described as “mostly-in.”
The Cubs are highly motivated to return to the postseason after a prolonged absence, and an aggressive approach is still expected as Chicago prepares for a division race that could be a battle to the end. But the Cubs’ level of aggressiveness remains to be seen.
