USC fans have talked all offseason about the improvement USC needs to see on offense this year. A lot of that talk centers around the offensive line and Lincoln Riley’s willingness to run the football more. That talk is justified. But modern football is primarily about the pass, and Lincoln Riley’s offenses are famous for the pass, so a lot of attention necessarily falls on the quarterback.
And the reality is that USC’s quarterback play needs to be a lot better this year. Both Miller Moss and Jayden Maiava had very good moments last year. Both were above-average college quarterbacks. And both killed USC with their mistakes.
Lincoln Riley has talked about how developing as a player means the player makes fewer bad plays and that the bad plays are not as bad. With the last two USC starting quarterbacks, the bad players were very, very bad.
One of the primary reasons USC was bad in close games is because USC gave away games with devastating mistakes, often from the quarterback position. The Penn State and Notre Dame games are the two most obvious examples; bad throws at the end cost USC a good chance to beat two of the best teams in the country. Winning those games would have dramatically changed USC’s season last year.
A poster on the WeAreSC message boards provided a chart showing Sean Payton’s manner of judging quarterbacks. The data is put together by @CFBNumbers and the graph is here:
It takes into account two factors: the percentage of bad plays and the effect of the bad plays—i.e., just how bad were they?
The answer for USC is that Miller Moss (shown on the chart with the Louisville logo) did not make a high percentage of bad plays; to the contrary, his bad-play percentage was quite low. His limitations as a quarterback—sometimes marginal accuracy, a poor deep ball, and inability or unwillingness to run—were limitations that USC would live with. The problem is that when he made mistakes, his mistakes were devastating.
Maiava had a higher percentage of bad plays, and unfortunately, his bad plays were also devastating.
There has been chatter that USC’s quarterbacks were put in a bad position because of bad pass blocking, and bad receiver play, and the team’s inability or unwillingness to establish the run. All of that was often true. But many of the most devastating mistakes by USC’s quarterbacks were not the result of pressure or even playing behind the sticks. Most of the most devastating plays came from a clean pocket when USC was in a good position.
Going back to Miller Moss’s first start in the bowl game against Louisville, USC had a first and goal up 28-14. There’s no reason to force anything there, especially on first down. If you took three knees and kicked the field goal, you’d be up three scores. Instead, from a clean pocket, Moss throws late and behind a receiver with the corner sitting on the route, who takes the ball back 69 yards. USC still won the game, but that’s a game-altering play. It took Louisville from dead to right in the thick of it. It was a terrible pick.
Against Michigan, USC is down 14-10 and has a 3rd and 3. Moss takes a three-step drop and throws a hitch, and one of the best corners in the country takes it back. Again, a terrible mistake not caused by pressure and one that dramatically impacts your ability to win.
Against Maryland, the Trojans are up 21-7 with a 1st and 10 at the Maryland 41. There’s no reason to do anything risky there. Maryland isn’t really in the game at that point. Moss throws a terrible ball up for grabs. There was pressure, but that was an awful decision.
Against Penn State, USC has a 3rd and 7 and a decent completion gives USC a chance to kick the game-winning field goal. With no pressure, Moss overshoots a wide-open Duce Robinson, and the Trojans lose in overtime. That was a terrible interception.
Moss wasn’t alone. Against Texas A&M, trailing 24-21, with USC near their own goal loan, Maiava tosses a 1st and 10 pass well over the receiver’s head to the centerfielder who was sitting over the top of the play. It was a bad read and a bad throw and could easily have cost USC the game.
Against Notre Dame, of course, Maiava throws a pick six on first down with USC only down seven late in the game. It was an attempted back-shoulder throw but was poorly thrown, and the ND defender—who had been destroyed all game—made a great play on the ball. There was no pressure on the play. Interceptions don’t come much bigger than that one.
Those aren’t all the picks Moss and Maiava threw. Those guys also both made a lot of great throws, and they made a lot of plays under pressure. But this idea that it was bad offensive-line play that led to the back-breaking picks is just untrue. Both Moss and Maiava threw away football games and almost threw away others. About half of the starts for those two quarterbacks led to horrific plays that either cost USC the football game or could easily have done so. That’s just not okay.
Even with the questionable offensive-line play, USC still finished 23rd in the nation in total offense. USC moved the ball very well against almost everybody, including playoff semifinalists Penn State and Notre Dame. This year’s USC team will move the ball, too. I don’t think there’s any question about that.
The question is whether USC can rely on its quarterbacks to avoid devastating mistakes. Jayden Maiava showed the ability to bounce back from bad plays last year. That’s good; resiliency is an important quality for a quarterback. But USC’s shot at a playoff berth probably hinges on whether Maiava can avoid disaster. Since Caleb left, USC’s quarterbacks have been unable to do that.
And in some ways that is good news for USC fans. If I had told you three years ago that USC would have a deep and talented defense and should have a good season as long as it gets good quarterback play, every Trojan fan in the world would have taken it. We assumed that USC would have good quarterback play. I think we still can. One subpar year does not mean that Lincoln Riley forgot how to coach quarterbacks. His track record is too good for that, and his skill has been recognized by the best in the business. When Jalen Hurts was looking to transfer from Alabama, Nick Saban steered him away from Miami and Maryland and told him, “You need to go to Oklahoma. They got the best coach to develop you as a quarterback.” Saban was probably right about that—Hurts’ development as a passer certainly suggests he was—and it’s probably still true today. This is why USC fans can expect Jayden Maiava to take a significant step forward this year. And if he does, USC has a chance to beat any team on its schedule.
