One of boxing’s elite returns to the ring Saturday for what could be his toughest test yet. Naoya Inoue defends his undisputed junior featherweight championship against WBC bantamweight titleholder Junto Nakatani (DAZN, 3 a.m. ET) at Tokyo Dome.
Nakatani will be making his second appearance at junior featherweight in an all-Japanese showdown between two of the sport’s most dangerous punchers. Both are multidivision champions and ranked among ESPN’s pound-for-pound best, Inoue at No. 2 and Nakatani at No. 6. Inoue is one of only three men to become undisputed in two divisions — alongside Oleksandr Usyk and Terence Crawford — while Nakatani has also held titles at junior bantamweight and flyweight.
Inoue (32-0, 27 KOs) is coming off a dominant decision win over David Picasso in December, with scores of 119-109, 120-108 and 117-111 — his fourth victory of 2025, and enters the fight against Nakatani as a -400 favorite to win, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. On that same card, Nakatani (32-0, 24 KOs) edged Sebastian Hernandez by scores of 115-113, 115-113 and 118-110 to secure the Inoue matchup.
Can Inoue’s movement and body work neutralize Nakatani’s southpaw power and disrupt his jab?
ESPN asked two former champions and a boxing insider to break down the fight and make their picks.
Editor’s note: Content has been edited for brevity and clarity.
Jorge Linares, former three-division champion
The matchup
I’ve always been a big fan of Inoue, but I think this is Nakatani’s moment. This is the toughest fight he’s going to face in his career so far, and I think it’s a fight he can handle. I think it’ll go the distance, but anything can happen, like a knockdown. Most likely Inoue’s going down.
How does Nakatani win?
What he needs to do, above all, is box him. Take a risk by throwing multiple punches, but not too many, because Inoue’s reactions are often much faster than his. But he has to box him and be very smart about all those powerful punches Inoue throws.
Something specific for Nakatani to do should be using his lead jab and left-handed counterpunches a lot more. Nakatani is a southpaw, and Inoue doesn’t really like fighting left-handers.
How does Inoue win?
Inoue should focus mainly on fighting at close range because that’s his strength. Inoue is really good at the short and mid ranges. And focus on body punches, like he’s been doing lately. Those are brutal.
Inoue doesn’t throw that many punches, but the ones he does throw are very powerful. And his timing is impeccable, too. It’s impressive, precise, especially the counterattack.
Who wins?
This is a tough fight to predict — honestly, it’s 50-50 — and the first time I’ve seriously questioned whether Inoue could lose. I think it’s going to be very close, very close. I’ll go with Nakatani.
Alexandro Santiago, former bantamweight champion, fought Nakatani in 2024
The matchup
This is going to be a good fight. Each fighter has his own style. Nakatani knows how to use his reach really well; he’s a long southpaw. And the times Inoue has been knocked down, it’s been by fighters in a southpaw stance. Luis Nery and Ramon Cardenas caught him when he switched southpaw, and Inoue just crashed into them. And Nakatani is a powerful southpaw.
How does Inoue win?
I think Inoue shouldn’t wait around but go on the offensive — and do it carefully, very carefully, because Nakatani is really good at managing the distance and counterattacking. But we saw with Sebastian Hernandez, for example, in the later rounds, that the key is to close that gap on Nakatani and start landing punches. Francisco Rodriguez Jr. did the same thing when they fought in 2022. Basically, keep Nakatani under pressure. I think Nakatani is more vulnerable under pressure, and that’s what Inoue has to do — go in and attack. Inoue has great timing — you can tell he hits really hard. And we know that Inoue is very smart, so he can do a better job than past Nakatani opponents and win the fight.
When I fought Nakatani, the plan was landing blow after blow, but it’s about keeping the pressure on, staying on top of him and hitting him from top to bottom.
How does Nakatani win?
I think his game plan is going to be to keep his distance and land his long power punches, trying to keep Inoue at a distance and hit him from there. He’ll want to not let Inoue get in close, because we know Inoue is really dangerous, and once he gets in close, he can finish the fight.
Nakatani is going to use his reach to his advantage — he knows how to use it really well. The thing is, Inoue is going to be able to counterpunch well. Inoue has been knocked down, but, as they say, he’s “The Monster,” and he’s going to try to close that distance and make it his fight.
Who wins?
The fight could go either way, because Nakatani hits hard too. He might land a shot on Inoue, but Inoue is also very, very smart and could end the fight as well. I’m going with Inoue.
Al Bernstein, Hall of Fame boxing commentator
The matchup
Even though Nakatani wasn’t as impressive the last time out as he normally is, I think we can look at that as an aberration and not read too much into it. So he’s going to be as prepared and as ready as he can be for this fight. And no matter what outcome, it would seem almost impossible — barring a cut or some other strange injury during the fight — for this not to be a very, very good match. Both men are excellent. Probably the edge in power goes to Inoue; he’s been at higher weights more often, has already been at higher weights than Nakatani. That could be the wild card in this thing, but Nakatani is also a good puncher and of course is a very skilled fighter. So to me, it just seems like it is almost destined to be a terrific fight.
How does Inoue win?
I think he’s going to want to land early. I’ve referenced the power part because generally he’s been at the higher weights. A lot of times, when we think of that, it can take away from the fact that Inoue is one of the best ring technicians, certainly in boxing today and one of the best we’ve seen in a long, long time. He’s a fantastic ring technician. He can be a true boxer-puncher in this fight. And I think that’s kind of what he wants to be. He wants to try to dictate the tempo of the fight, but not in a purely offensive way. In recent fights, we’ve seen him be tactical in his movement against fighters that he didn’t knock out, that weren’t going away. And so I don’t think we’re going to see an Inoue who’s saying, “Well, I’m going to go in there and I’m just going to shoot for the knockout and really try and impose my will completely on him because I think he’s coming up in weight and I’m probably the bigger, stronger guy.” I think we’re going to see a boxer-puncher approach from Inoue, which I think is probably a smart idea.
And the right hand, of course, is going to be a big weapon for him against Nakatani. We’ll see if that is what makes the difference. But at the end of the day, I think just his strength and the fact that he’s a slightly bigger, maybe stronger guy could be the difference.
How does Nakatani win?
Nakatani has some things coming into this fight that certainly make him more than a live underdog. Even though Inoue has done very well against other lefties, they have had a couple of good moments against him. Nakatani does bring that southpaw stance to the dance. He is a really good volume puncher, which I think is a real plus against Inoue, because if you can start off throwing a lot of punches, you stand the chance of stifling some of Inoue’s offense and not allow him to reset as nicely as he wants to. And that I think could be a key for Nakatani.
There’s going to have to be a lot of volume by Nakatani, but smart volume, obviously. I honestly think we’re going to know by about the third or fourth round whether the power of Inoue is the difference. If he lands something of note and hurts Nakatani, that’s one thing. But beyond that, even if the power of Inoue makes Nakatani less aggressive and a more cautious boxer, we’ll know that by, I think, Round 4 or so. And if that’s not the case, well, buckle up your seatbelts because it’s going to be a great ride however long it lasts.
For Nakatani, it’s kind of important for him to make some kind of offensive statement in the first three or four rounds, whether it’s volume that stops some of Inoue’s attack or a power punch that tells Inoue he’s got some pop. So yeah, the beginning of the fight is important for both men. I don’t know if either man is going to throw caution to the wind, but I do think it’s more important for Nakatani.
Who wins?
I would stick with Inoue. But, of course, there’s a very good chance Nakatani can win this fight. I’m going with Inoue because he’s the bigger, probably stronger guy, and also he has more ways to win this fight than Nakatani does. But I fully expect it’s going to be a competitive and great fight.
