The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season opens Sunday with the Daytona 500 race at Daytona International Speedway.
Barring a win from an open entry, one driver will already be locked into the playoffs by winning NASCAR’s highest profile race on Sunday with 25 regular season races to come throughout the spring and summer.
A very eventful 2024 season was headlined by Joey Logano’s third Cup title, a number of high-profile decisions by NASCAR race control and a lawsuit filed by two Cup teams against NASCAR regarding the new charter agreement signed by other teams.
If 2025 gives fans and drivers more to talk about, it’ll make for a busy nine months.
Who will make the NASCAR playoffs? Who will surprise and disappoint over the next 38 weeks? Here’s how The Tennessean’s experts see the 2025 NASCAR season playing out:
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A NASCAR Cup Series surprise this season will be….
Mike Organ, sports reporter: Josh Berry will take advantage of his opportunity to remain at the Cup level with Wood Brothers Racing after Stewart-Haas Racing closed at the end of the 2024 season. Berry had a solid rookie season with two top-5 finishes, four top-10s and a third-place finish in the All-Star race.
Nick Gray, trending sports reporter: Fans liking something new! The in-season tournament format will be popular, with fans enjoying the attention-getter during the summer when the races all too often feel like they run together before the playoffs.
Austin Chastain, sports reporter: Hendersonville’s Josh Berry will find a way to win a race this season having a reinvigorated mindset going from Stewart-Haas Racing to Wood Brothers Racing. The Wood Brothers Racing partnership with Team Penske will
Tom Kreager, Tennessean sports director: Austin Dillon will win a race – and NASCAR won’t take it away from him – in 2024. A strong offseason with new-found speed will boost Richard Childress Racing. And we’ll see the result with Austin in the playoffs.
A NASCAR Cup Series disappointment this season will be….
Mike Organ: Joe Gibbs selected Chase Briscoe to replace Martin Truex Jr. and Briscoe finished last at the Clash at Bowman Gray because of steering issues. The hope is that Briscoe will have a breakout season, but it will be difficult for him to continue to overachieve on the Cup level. To meet expectations, he needs to win at least one race and make the playoffs, and neither will happen.
Nick Gray: Here’s a stunner: Denny Hamlin misses the playoffs. The 44-year-old has won multiple races in nine of the last 10 seasons, but his years of championship contending are over. After a downright elite stretch from 2019-2021, his numbers have been just very good in the last three seasons while missing out on the Championship 4 in all three years. If the No. 11 JGR Toyota doesn’t visit victory lane by Memorial Day weekend, the pressure will be on.
Austin Chastain: Denny Hamlin will get a win and work his way into the playoffs, but a Round of 16 exit will keep Hamlin away from the long-elusive NASCAR Cup Series championship he has been chasing for years.
Tom Kreager: Can Kyle Busch go two seasons without a win? Maybe. But the biggest disappointment will be Chase Elliott. The former Cup champion will struggle to make the playoffs and be out early.
How will the 23XI/Front Row lawsuit impact this season?
Mike Organ: While the lawsuit isn’t scheduled go to trial until after the 2025 season, the legal process is expected to continue to play out before then. On the track, the 2024 season ended with no discourse between NASCAR and the two teams that filed the suit so that should be the case again this season.
Nick Gray: As the process plays out, it’ll be little more than a constant talking point. Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace should both be very competitive for 23XI, and I imagine the race teams will be very motivated. Front Row has a group of young drivers that shouldn’t get too caught up in what’s happening with the ongoing legal process either.
Austin Chastain:Â The ongoing lawsuit between 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports against NASCAR may cause some rifts among the teams with some owners, teams and drivers possibly annoyed that 23XI and FRM are dragging out the process while the two teams will argue they are standing up for what they believe in.
Tom Kreager: It will steal a few headlines and provide some chatter at the track. But nothing on the track will be impacted.
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How will Shane van Gisbergen fare in his rookie season?
Mike Organ: Facing a 38-week Cup schedule poses a challenge for Shane van Gisbergen, but he will handle it well. He needs to improve on the ovals and will do that steadily throughout the season.
Nick Gray: He’s too good not to win if given five chances on a road course. I’ll be paying more attention to SVG’s oval performance, but any real consistent quality performance shouldn’t be expected until 2026 at the earliest. Despite a year of Xfinity Series racing (in which he wasn’t bad, with five top-10s on ovals in 2024), this car will require some adaptation for the New Zealand-born future Cup Series star.
Austin Chastain:Â Having won his first Cup Series start at the Chicago Street Course in 2023, SVG will win at least once on a road course in the regular season and find his way into the Round of 8 with a victory at the Charlotte ROVAL.
Tom Kreager: He’ll win a race – a road course. But look for him to not have a big impact on ovals.
2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoff picks
Mike Organ: Christopher Bell, Josh Berry, Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Daniel Suarez
Nick Gray: Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Ty Gibbs, Erik Jones, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Shane van Gisbergen, Bubba Wallace
Austin Chastain: Christopher Bell, Josh Berry, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Busch, Chris Buescher, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Ryan Preece, Tyler Reddick, Shane van Gisbergen
Tom Kreager: Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, Chris Buescher, William Byron, Ross Chastain, Austin Dillon, Chase Elliott, Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Bubba Wallace
The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series champion will be….
Mike Organ: Ross Chastain. After missing the playoffs in 2024, Chastain will roar back in 2025 and win his first tile. He was better toward the end of 2024 culminating with a postseason victory at Kansas, which will provide momentum heading into this season.
Nick Gray: William Byron. I went back and forth between Byron and Ryan Blaney, who was a half-second at Phoenix away from repeating as Cup champion. Byron is somehow starting Year 8 as a full-time Cup driver, and he has made the Championship 4 in back-to-back seasons. This team has figured out 90% of the playoff format, and expect the final 10% to be conquered this November.
Austin Chastain:Â Chase Elliott. After some up and down seasons after his 2020 championship, including missing a chunk of the 2023 season after a skiing accident, Elliott finds a way to win multiple races in the regular season and take both the checkered flag and championship trophy from Phoenix Raceway in November for his second title.
Tom Kreager: Christopher Bell. At one point in 2024, one can argue that Bell was the best driver in the series. He had three wins. But Bell will be even better in 2025.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NASCAR predictions 2025: Expert picks for NASCAR Cup champion, playoffs
