NBA Cup 2024: Here’s what’s at stake on the final day of group play, plus every clinch scenario

The 2024 Emirates NBA Cup resumes Tuesday, with five of the eight spots in the knockout round — three in the East, two in the West — still up for grabs on the seventh and final night of group-stage play.

Here’s a look at what’s at stake in Tuesday’s 11-game NBA Cup slate, as well as the lay of the land in each of the six groups as the race for the NBA Cup begins to heat up:

The stakes: Group winners and wild cards

This will be the final night of Group Play, with the top eight teams in the East and West — the winners of Groups A, B and C, plus two “wild cards” (the team from each conference with the best record in group-play games that finished second in its group) — advancing to the single-elimination knockout rounds.

Because of the small number of games, tiebreakers will likely come into play (even for the wild card), with the advancing team being decided by:

• (1) head-to-head record in group play;

• (2) non-overtime point differential in group play;

• (3) total non-overtime points in group play;

• (4) 2023-24 regular-season record;

… and, finally, if all of that fails to break the tie:

The four quarterfinal games will be played Tuesday, Dec. 10, and Wednesday, Dec. 11.

The four winners will advance to Las Vegas, where the semifinals will be held on Saturday, Dec. 14. The championship game for the NBA Cup will take place on Tuesday, Dec. 17, at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC. It will be the only game in the entire tournament that won’t also count toward the participating teams’ regular-season records or their players’ statistics.

The teams that don’t make it to Las Vegas won’t just be chilling at home, though. During the knockout rounds, on the days where no NBA Cup games are scheduled — Thursday, Dec. 12, Friday, Dec. 13, Sunday, Dec. 15 and Monday, Dec. 16 — the 22 teams who didn’t qualify for the knockouts will each play two regular-season games. The four teams that lose in the quarterfinals will each play one regular-season game against one another, too.

Gone ’til (next) November

After a massive Black Friday slate, we’re now up to 14 teams eliminated.

In the West, we’ve bid farewell to the Pelicans, Jazz, Timberwolves, Kings and Lakers. LeBron James and Co. finished group play at 2-2, sitting behind three teams in West Group B, and with a -24 point differential, well behind any of the teams still alive in the Western Conference.

In the East, it’s bon voyage to the Wizards, Raptors, 76ers, Nets, Hornets, Heat, Bulls, Pacers and, somewhat surprisingly, Cavaliers — who have lost just three games total this season, but who packed two of those Ls into group play. Oh, well. Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Co. will just have to content themselves with setting their sights on an even bigger gold trophy.

Who’s in

Only three teams have punched their tickets to the knockout round:

• The Rockets, who topped West Group A.

• The Warriors, who topped West Group C.

• And your fightin’ Atlanta Hawks, who upset two beasts of the East, the Celtics and Cavs, to wind up atop East Group C.

That leaves three groups — West Group B, East Group A and East Group B — as well as each conference’s wild-card berth still in play, and 13 teams still in the hunt to snare a knockout slot on the final day of group play.

Who’s still in the hunt

EAST GROUP A: Two teams alive

This one, thankfully, is pretty clean. The Magic and Knicks both sit at 3-0, and play each other at Madison Square Garden in the front end of TNT’s Tuesday doubleheader. The winner wins Group A.

If Orlando loses, it will almost certainly be the East’s wild card, thanks to rolling up a league-high +60 point differential through its first three games. So long as the Magic don’t lose by more than 37 points, they’re moving on.

New York, however, enters the group-stage finale at +15 — a worse point differential than the Bucks (+29), Pistons (+28) and Celtics (+23), and one that would only decrease with a loss. That means Tom Thibodeau’s club has to win to advance.

EAST GROUP B: Two teams alive

It’s a similar story here: The Bucks and Pistons enter Tuesday at 3-0, and will face off on Tuesday in Detroit, with the winner taking Group B.

The loser can still advance, but would need to finish with a better point differential than both the Celtics and the loser of the aforementioned Magic/Knicks game to take the wild-card spot. For the Bucks, at a minimum, that means they can’t lose by more than six points; the Pistons can’t lose by more than five.

EAST GROUP C: One team in, one team alive

The Hawks, as we laid out earlier, have already clinched a spot in the knockout round. That leaves the Celtics, who finished 3-1 in group play, sweating out Tuesday’s results in Detroit and New York.

If the Knicks lose and the loser of Bucks/Pistons loses by enough to finish with a point differential below +23, then Boston moves on. If the Knicks win … well, the Celtics will need them to win by more than 37 points to bump Orlando out of position, and for the loser of Bucks/Pistons to lose by enough to finish with a point differential below +23.

WEST GROUP A: One team in, two teams alive

The Rockets, riding high after taking down the West-leading Thunder in a heavyweight fight on Sunday, are already on to the knockout round. The Trail Blazers (2-1, -5 point differential) and Clippers (1-2, -6 point differential), both still hanging on in the wild-card race despite negative point differentials, will square off at Intuit Dome.

The Blazers can snipe the West’s wild card if:

• They win, and the Thunder and Mavericks both lose; OR

• They win, and beat the Clips by enough to win the point-differential tiebreaker over Dallas (currently +41) and whoever finishes second in West Group B (currently Oklahoma City, +19); OR

• They lose, but do it in overtime … and the Thunder, Mavericks and Nuggets all lose … and Portland somehow finishes with a better point differential than whichever teams finish second in West Groups B and C.

The Clippers can take the wild card if:

• They win;

• The Thunder and Mavericks both lose; and

• They win by enough points to win the point-differential tiebreaker over whichever teams finish second in West Groups B and C … which, if the Nuggets win, will mean that L.A. has to beat Portland by … at least 24 points.

WEST GROUP B: Three teams alive

The liveliest group left! The Spurs, Thunder and Suns all sit at 2-1, all within five points of one another in total point differential, with San Antonio and Phoenix facing off in the group-stage finale.

Here’s how the game of rock-paper-scissors breaks down:

• The Thunder win Group B if they beat the Jazz and the Suns beat the Spurs (because OKC beat Phoenix head-to-head).

• The Suns win Group B if they beat the Spurs and the Jazz beat the Thunder (because Phoenix will be the only 3-1 team left).

• The Spurs win Group B if they beat the Suns (because they’ll have beaten both Phoenix and OKC).

If they don’t finish atop the group, all three still have pathways to the wild card, too.

(takes a deep breath)

To win the wild card, OKC needs:

• A win, plus losses by the Trail Blazers and Mavericks; OR

• A win by enough points to secure the tiebreaker over Portland and Dallas;

• Losses by the Suns, Trail Blazers and Mavericks that leave OKC with the tiebreaker advantage over whoever finishes second in West Groups A and C; OR

• Losses by the Trail Blazers and Mavericks, plus finishing ahead of the Spurs and Lakers in their own group, and winning the tiebreaker over whoever finishes second in West Groups A and C … which would require OKC losing by fewer than 24 points if the Nuggets win, or just losing in overtime if the Nuggets lose.

To win the wild card, Phoenix needs:

• A win, plus losses by the Trail Blazers and Mavericks; OR

• A win by enough points to secure the tiebreaker over Portland and Dallas.

To win the wild card, San Antonio needs:

• Losses by the Trail Blazers, Thunder, Mavericks and Nuggets, plus finishing ahead of the Thunder and Lakers in their own group, and winning the tiebreaker over whoever finishes second in West Groups A and C … which would require losing by fewer than 20 points in regulation or just losing in overtime.

WEST GROUP C: One team in, three teams alive

The Warriors were the first team to sew up a spot in the knockout stage, and the Pelicans were the first team eliminated. The other three members of Group C, though — the Mavericks (2-1, +41 point differential), Nuggets (1-2, +2 point differential) and Grizzlies (1-2, -6 point differential)? They’re still slugging it out in hopes of pulling the wild card.

The Mavericks can clinch it with:

• A win, plus losses by the Thunder and Trail Blazers; OR

• A win by enough points to secure the tiebreaker over Portland and whoever finishes second in West Group B; OR

• Losses by the Thunder, Trail Blazers and Nuggets, plus finishing ahead of the Nuggets and Grizzlies in their own group, and winning the tiebreaker over whoever finishes second in West Groups A and B … which would require losing by fewer than 24 points in regulation or just losing in overtime.

The Nuggets can clinch it with:

• A win, plus losses by the Mavericks, Thunder and Trail Blazers, plus finishing ahead of the Mavericks and Grizzlies in their own group, and winning the tiebreaker over whoever finishes second in West Groups A and B … which would require Denver beating the Warriors by at least 16 points in regulation.

And the Grizzlies can clinch it with:

• A win, plus losses by the Thunder, Trail Blazers and Nuggets, resulting in the Grizzlies winning the tiebreaker over whoever finishes second in West Group B; OR

• A win, plus losses by the Thunder and Trail Blazers, plus finishing ahead of the Mavericks and Nuggets in their own group, and winning the tiebreaker over whoever finishes second in West Groups A and B … which would require Memphis beating the Mavericks by at least 24 points in regulation.

See? Not that complicated, really. Pretty simple, actually, now that we’ve laid it all out.

Group play standings

EAST GROUP A

• 1. Orlando Magic (3-0, +60 point differential)

• 2. New York Knicks (3-0, +15 point differential)

• 3. Philadelphia 76ers (1-2, -9 point differential) —eliminated

• 4. Brooklyn Nets (1-3, -39 point differential) —eliminated

• 5. Charlotte Hornets (0-3, -27 point differential) —eliminated

EAST GROUP B

• 1. Milwaukee Bucks (3-0, +29 point differential)

• 2. Detroit Pistons (3-0, +28 point differential)

• 3. Miami Heat (2-2, +20 point differential) —eliminated

• 4. Toronto Raptors (0-3, -28 point differential) —eliminated

• 5. Indiana Pacers (0-3, -49 point differential) —eliminated

EAST GROUP C

• 1. Atlanta Hawks (3-1, +15 point differential) — clinched Group C

• 2. Boston Celtics (3-1, +23 point differential)

• 3. Chicago Bulls (2-2, +6 point differential) —eliminated

• 4. Cleveland Cavaliers (1-2, -1 point differential) —eliminated

• 5. Washington Wizards (0-3, -43 point differential) —eliminated

WEST GROUP A

• 1. Houston Rockets (3-0, +49 point differential) —clinched Group A

• 2. Portland Trail Blazers (2-1, -5 point differential)

• 3. Minnesota Timberwolves (2-2, -13 point differential) —eliminated

• 4. LA Clippers (1-2, -6 point differential)

• 5. Sacramento Kings (0-3, -25 point differential) —eliminated

WEST GROUP B

• 1. San Antonio Spurs (2-1, +14 point differential)

• 2. Oklahoma City Thunder (2-1, +18 point differential)

• 3. Phoenix Suns (2-1, +19 point differential)

• 4. Los Angeles Lakers (2-2, -24 point differential) —eliminated

• 5. Utah Jazz (0-3, -27 point differential) —eliminated

WEST GROUP C

• 1. Golden State Warriors (3-0, +12 point differential) — clinched Group C

• 2. Dallas Mavericks (2-1, +41 point differential)

• 3. Denver Nuggets (1-2, +2 point differential)

• 4. Memphis Grizzlies (1-2, -6 point differential)

• 5. New Orleans Pelicans (1-3, -49 point differential) —eliminated

Tuesday’s schedule and clinching scenarios

• 76ers at Hornets, 7 p.m.

• Wizards at Cavaliers, 7 p.m.

• Bucks at Pistons, 7 p.m.

• Magic at Knicks, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)

• Pacers at Raptors, 7:30 p.m.

• Jazz at Thunder, 8 p.m.

• Grizzlies at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m.

• Spurs at Suns, 9 p.m.

• Warriors at Nuggets, 10 p.m. (TNT)

• Rockets at Kings, 10 p.m.

• Trail Blazers at Clippers, 10:30 p.m.