Defensive Pessimism: How Negative Thinking Can Have a Positive Impact
The most common approach heading into a big competition is to think positively–visualize the best-case scenario, focus on improving times or beating opponents, and avoid worrying about negative outcomes. For years, athletes and coaches have viewed this approach as the most effective strategy. But another mindset may be just as effective: Defensive pessimism.
What is Defensive Pessimism?
Psychologists Julie Norem and Nancy Cantor first introduced the concept of defensive pessimism in a 1986 study titled Defensive Pessimism: Harnessing Anxiety as Motivation.
Defensive pessimism is a cognitive strategy in which individuals set lower expectations for themselves to reduce stress in high-pressure situations. Unlike general pessimism, which focuses on expecting negative outcomes, defensive pessimism uses that mindset as a tool for preparation. It helps individuals prepare for negative outcomes to lessen anxiety and improve performance.
This approach is most often used to regulate anxiety. Rather than ignoring or fighting anxious thoughts, defensive pessimists anticipate challenges and use their worry as motivation to prepare. For athletes who experience performance anxiety, this strategy can be particularly effective because it works with anxiety, not against it.
In practice, an athlete using defensive pessimism might lower their expectations ahead of a meet, preparing for possibilities such as adding time, getting disqualified, or missing their event. While this may draw attention away from visualizing success, it can also reduce pressure and make it easier to accept and move forward from a negative outcome.
For some athletes, under-performance may serve as fuel to improve in future competitions. For others, repeated disappointment could hurt motivation. Like any mental strategy, defensive pessimism isn’t universal–but for athletes who respond well to it, it can be a powerful way to channel anxiety into a focused, productive effort.
Defensive Pessimism and Strategic Optimism
Studies on defensive pessimism often compare it directly with strategic optimism. While both strategies can lead to similar outcomes, they rely on sharply contrasting approaches. Strategic optimism involves setting high expectations, maintaining a positive outlook and deliberately avoiding thoughts of negative outcomes.
According to a 2004 study titled Mood and Performance Among Defensive Pessimists and Strategic Optimists, published in the Journal of Research in Personality, these two groups respond very differently under pressure. Strategic optimists tend to feel little anxiety and perform best when they distract or relax themselves before a task. Defensive pessimists, in contrast, often find that distraction or forced positivity interferes with their performance. They rely on mentally rehearsing possible negative outcomes to prepare effectively.
Is it Effective?
The original study on defensive pessimism by Norem and Cantor focused on individuals in academic settings and found that, regardless of the strategy used–whether defensive pessimism or strategic optimism–participants achieved similar academic test results.
While research on defensive pessimism in athletic performance is more limited, current studies suggest the strategy carries no performance disadvantage and may even be more beneficial. A 2002 study titled Optimist, Pessimism, and Pre-competition Anxiety in College Athletes, published in Personality and Individual Differences, found that collegiate athletes who used defensive pessimism performed slightly better than those who relied on strategic optimism.
Personal Experience
I usually advocate for staying positive, but there’s a strong case for defensive pessimism. Some athletes struggle with anxiety or other mental challenges that make optimism hard to maintain–especially during high-stress situations like meets or intense practices. In those moments, forcing positivity can burn more energy than it saves.
I’ve entered competitions determined to stay positive, only to exhaust myself trying to convince myself everything would go perfectly. That added pressure made it hard to accept a negative outcome, which in turn added more anxiety to the situation than necessary. When I shifted to a more open mindset, I felt less pressure and grew more comfortable with the racing process, mentally preparing for any outcome–not just a positive one.
But defensive pessimism can be a slippery slope. If you constantly expect less from yourself, you may get too comfortable underperforming. It’s important to push your limits. Disappointment can be a useful tool–it often motivates growth and progress. In the end, it’s about balance. Defensive pessimism can help manage pressure, but only when it doesn’t hold you back.
Final Thoughts
The effectiveness of defensive pessimism depends on each athlete’s mindset. While the strategy may work well for some, it doesn’t benefit everyone. For swimmers who feel stuck or struggle to stay positive before competition, it may be worth trying this approach to see if it benefits their performance and mindset.
