The Oregon Ducks football team had a tough draw in the first version of the 12-team College Football Playoff, as they were forced to wait around for nearly a month and then play the hottest team in the country in the Rose Bowl.
The result was far from favorable.
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Now in the second year of the CFP, the committee has chosen to switch things up, going with a straight seeding of the teams instead of giving conference champions an automatic bye in the quarterfinals. The sentiment of rewarding the conference champions was admirable, but it quickly revealed some flaws, as some games ended in routs.
On3’s Andy Staples went ahead and published his own mock tournament for the coming year, and while he has Oregon playing in Autzen Stadium in a first-round matchup with Florida, the result is the same as Staples predicted under the old seeding model: the Ducks lose to eventual champion Texas in the Sugar Bowl.
“Oregon went undefeated through the regular season last year and had the misfortune, thanks to the since-eliminated seeding rules, of drawing Ohio State in its first CFP game,” Staples said. “After losing a ton of talent to the draft, the Ducks have once again reloaded at key spots in the portal — including at three offensive line positions. This should produce a talented roster but not necessarily a consistent one. So I’m not predicting a Big Ten title repeat, but I am predicting a first-round win for the Ducks.”
Staples says these Ducks are bound to be inconsistent with the new faces, but they could also be a team that just gets better throughout the season, and by the time the playoffs roll around, they will have everything figured out and be one of the hottest teams in the postseason. It worked for Ohio State last season and there’s no reason to think the Ducks can’t be in a similar spot in 2025.
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But Staples doesn’t take that into account and has Oregon losing to the Longhorns in a venue more favorable for Texas.
“Once again, Oregon runs into the most talented team in the country in the quarterfinals. I had Texas losing at Georgia in the regular season but beating Ohio State and Florida and then beating Alabama in the SEC title game,” Staples said. “That produces a battle-tested team in New Orleans, the bulk of which played in a tight-in-the-fourth-quarter semifinal against eventual national champ Ohio State last year. Texas advances to the semifinals for the second consecutive year.”
Another quarterfinal loss wouldn’t be devastating in Eugene, but it would lead to a narrative of Dan Lanning not winning the big postseason game. The only way to avoid that is to win the whole thing.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon Football: New CFP seeding brings tough path for Ducks
