The St. Louis Cardinals had plenty of positive vibes around the team coming out of the All-Star break and those good feelings continued into game one of the series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Michael McGreevy, advanced metrics be darned, did what he does to notch a quality start in a gritty win. In game two, Dustin May got the ball to prove to the Cardinals (and trade suitors) that he can remain healthy and effective into the second half of a season.
Unfortunately, that audition did not go great for anyone involved as May walked four and gave up five runs on eight hits in a 5-3 loss on Saturday. The bullpen allowed just one baserunner the rest of the way but the damage was done. To what extent that damage did to May’s trade value is unknown and there still seems to be a split crowd for what his future should be with the organization. He was signed on a one-year deal with the idea of a deal at the deadline, but he may have sunk his prospect value enough to argue he could be worth holding onto in this improbable playoff contention season.
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Regardless of the outcome surrounding May, there are going to be innings to be had in the rotation, be it from poor performance, innings limits, or injury. In a wild universe that is hopefully not this one, the Cardinals could be looking to replace 4/5 of their rotation not soon after August 3. My only lock for the 2027 rotation is McGreevy.
The Cardinals entire pitching staff could look different after the trade deadline
In my first buy or sell conversation of the year, most of the chatter centered around the pitching staff and what to do with May. A slight majority of fans seem to be leaning towards dealing May, but then beg the question why stop there? Andre Pallante has pitched his way into a solid value, but he could be overpaid soon through he arbitration process and may not be an arm the Cardinals are desperate to build around this offseason. He is less likely to be pitching elsewhere in August, but you have to think Bloom is answering all calls about any of his major league arms.
Behind Pallante and May sits Kyle Leahy, who has found his footing as a starter after a tough first stretch. The 29-year-old sits 7-4 with a 3.73 ERA and even though the advanced stats are less bullish on his work, he has become a reliable arm but another one who may have more future value elsewhere. And then there is Matthew Liberatore. I figure he is going to be trotted out every fifth day or so for the entire season before any long-term decisions are made, but a move to the bullpen at the latter stages of the season may not be out of the question.
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Reliever JoJo Romero hit the injured list with appendicitis late in the week and, less importantly than his health, now has plenty of questions about his own trade prospects. He was a likely trade candidate last year, but Chaim Bloom opted to maximize his value this year and seemed a near sure thing to be dealt this year. With no firm timetable to return, the Cardinals will now have a decision on whether to deal the lefty while injured, or hope he can regain his form and shore up a bullpen in a playoff race.
Elsewhere in the ‘pen, Riley O’Brien has shown his flaws as a closer and will not net the prospect capital some fans thought after his hot start. His remaining team control could mean Bloom will be more picky during this season and be more aggressive shopping the closer in the offseason. This could backfire and turn into another Romero situation, although O’Brien is nearly two years older with a spotty injury history, so there may be more reason to trade him now. Ryne Stanek may net something in return on the trade market, but expecting Bloom to find yet another low prospect diamond in the rough for an inconsistent and aging reliever is a tough ask.
If you’re still with me, that’s a lot of ifs/ands/buts within the 13-man pitching staff. While all seven of the above arms will probably not be in a new place in a couple weeks, there is still going to be some change in the pitching setup. For this practice, I am going to assume there are 2.5 rotation spots open and at least two meaningful bullpen roles up for grabs from August through the end of the season.
Lefty Quinn Mathews has found his 2024 self, pitching to a 2.01 ERA over his last four outings while striking out more than a batter an inning. He has grabbed the recent headlines, but the first option for one of the first open spots is probably still Hunter Dobbins. The righty has a couple MLB outings so far this year but has really hit a wall in Memphis over his last three outings. If both of these players keep going in their current directions, Mathews could leapfrog Dobbins into an extended audition. A trade would need to happen for this as Mathews needs to be added to the 40-man roster.
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The other Memphis starter to debut in St. Louis this year is another lefty in Brycen Mautz. He has become a kind of forgotten man after his hot start and has 16 walks over his last 16 innings in Triple-A. Mautz is of course on the 40-man so a promotion for him would be clean and easy, but has back to back short starts and could be ticketed for a bullpen role or that .5 rotation spot needed for extra rest. A post-deadline rotation that includes Dobbins and Mathews could be seen as a net positive regardless of the outcome because there should be enough starting opportunities to begin a proper evaluation period on their future potential.
Bullpen turnover is going to continue regardless of the trade deadline, but we could end up seeing Matt Svanson and Luis Gastelum become more important later in games if there is a deal or two. That leaves the middle innings of blowouts (always in the Cardinals’ favor) available for guys to get their feet wet in the majors and provide valuable support in the dog days of summer. That means we are almost guaranteed to see Ryan Fernandez again at some point, but we could also get a glimpse of Cade Winquest, Hancel Rincon, and Victor Santos. And just because I need to when there’s a chance, if Tink Hence looks even close to 100% healthy ever again, call him up and get at least one major league appearance out of him.
If the Cardinals need a little more length, they could go with Pete Hansen or Austin Love, but I would not mind seeing what the team has in Cooper Hjerpe. the lefty has looked good in his rehab from surgery and rather than push his innings up too much, a tapered down August in a reliever role could be really fun in St. Louis.
Of course, there is a chance the Cardinals get major league ready arm talent in return at the trade deadline, but the current crop of trade candidates may just get younger, developmental arms in return. In a season where the goal was to figure out what the organization has, this trade deadline should provide ample opportunity for Chaim Bloom and his staff to start diving into what is already here before making a new checklist this offseason.
Thanks as always!
