NFL offseason power rankings: No. 10 Houston Texans have a great defense and a C.J. Stroud conundrum

When C.J. Stroud‘s historic rookie season was wrapping up, imagining the Houston Texans quickly becoming a Super Bowl contender wasn’t a stretch.

The Texans doing it in spite of Stroud is the surprise.

Nobody foresaw the situation the Texans find themselves in going into Stroud’s fourth season. Houston has built what might be the best defense in the NFL. Edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. proved to be worth every bit of what the Texans gave up when they traded up to draft him, and Houston is physical and fast at all three levels.

Ask Josh Allen. The Texans abused Allen in a way he had never been before in his career during a 23-19 win over the Bills last season. The defense is stellar. And if Stroud had maintained or improved upon his rookie season level until now, the Texans would almost certainly be the best team in football. That hasn’t happened. They weren’t even the best team in the AFC South last season.

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Stroud’s rookie season wasn’t fluky. He was really good. There are three players to lead the NFL in passing yards per game and also touchdown-to-interception ratio in the same season. The first two were Joe Montana in 1989 and Tom Brady in 2007. Those are two of the most famous single seasons in NFL history. The third member of that group is Stroud, and he did so as a rookie. It was probably the greatest rookie season a quarterback has ever had, until Jayden Daniels usurped him a year later. Now Stroud’s rookie season seems like a hallucination.

Stroud hasn’t reached that level since, though the Texans have not done enough to help him either. Stroud’s four interception game in a playoff loss to the Patriots brought forth the predictable and hyperbolic talk that Houston would trade Stroud.

“It’s moronic. We’re not trading the guy,” Texans general manager Nick Caserio said at the NFL scouting combine, according to NFL.com. “He’s our quarterback. He’s gonna be playing quarterback for the Houston Texans in 2026. Anything beyond that, that’s your world. You guys can speculate on that. But we’re not trading C.J. Stroud.”

C.J. Stroud walks off the field after the Texans' divisional round playoff loss to the Patriots. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) — C.J. Stroud threw four first-half interceptions in a divisional-round playoff loss to the Patriots last January.

(Elsa via Getty Images)

That seemed obvious all along, but it’s not like the concern about Stroud is invalid. After Stroud’s rookie season, anyone would have bet on the Texans already signing him to a big long-term extension by now. But Stroud is still waiting for that second deal, which is telling. Stroud hasn’t been bad, aside from that playoff loss, but he has been league average. It’s hard for a team to know what to do, contract-wise, with an average quarterback.

For this season, there’s still the dream that the defense maintains its elite level while Stroud rediscovers his rookie form. Maybe that happens with new addition David Montgomery helping out in the running game, a young receiver or two leveling up and perhaps some offensive line additions helping what has been a bad unit. The Texans don’t need Stroud to be 1989 Montana or 2007 Brady with the defense they have. But they do need him to be a little better. And we’ve seen Stroud be a lot better in the NFL already.

A top-10 Texans offense paired with their scary defense can win a Super Bowl. That would be enough to get Stroud a top-end extension. But the team and everyone else is waiting for the rookie version of Stroud to show up again.

Offseason grade

The Texans’ latest attempt to fix the offensive line centered around the signing of offensive tackle Braden Smith (two years, $20 million) and guard Wyatt Teller (two years, $16 million) and drafting guard Keylan Rutledge with the 26th overall pick. The Texans’ line ranked 27th last season, according to Pro Football Focus, but all three of those additions should be new starters in that group this season.

They’ll be blocking for running back David Montgomery, who the Texans acquired in a trade with the Lions for offensive lineman Juice Scruggs, a 2026 fourth-round pick and a 2027 seventh-round pick. That’s a lot to give up for a 29-year-old back, but clearly the Texans wanted an upgrade. The Texans also traded offensive lineman Tytus Howard to the Browns as they reshape their line.

The Texans also kept adding to a deep defense, signing safety Reed Blankenship from the Eagles, defensive lineman Logan Hall from the Buccaneers and using a second-round pick on defensive tackle Kayden McDonald, who many had projected as a first-round pick.

The success of the offseason comes down to whether the offensive line can finally improve from being a far below average unit the past few years, and if Montgomery has enough in the tank to be a difference-making back.

Grade: C+

Quarterback report

C.J. Stroud has regressed, but is far from a liability. Among quarterbacks last season he was 12th in adjusted EPA (expected points added) per play, 15th in success rate and the Texans were 18th in passer rating. The playoff debacle against New England, in which Stroud put up a 28 passer rating, will linger and give many the impression that Stroud is much worse than he actually has been. However, Stroud being in the middle of the NFL might not be enough for the Texans to win a championship.

Stroud gets almost all of the blame but the Texans deserve some too. Nico Collins is a very good No. 1 receiver, but the group around him has been lacking, though Tank Dell‘s awful leg injury that kept him out last season didn’t help. Last year the Texans drafted receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, and after fairly quiet rookie seasons the team will expect more from them.

The offensive line has been a major problem, ranking 29th and 27th by PFF the past two seasons. The Texans weren’t great in the running game last season; only three teams had a lower yards per carry average. They were particularly awful in short-yardage and goal-line situations, which they hope is fixed with the addition of David Montgomery.

Stroud hasn’t played that well over the past two seasons, but he’s not the only one at fault. It makes the evaluation of him and the decision on his long-term future even more difficult.

Odds breakdown

From Yahoo’s Ben Fawkes: “Favored to win the AFC South (+120), big things are expected from a Texans team that again has a win total of 9.5. Houston has gone over its win total in three straight seasons, winning double-digit games in each. The Texans open as small underdog against the Bills, but are favored in the next six games leading into their bye.

“It’s an important year for C.J. Stroud and a Houston rushing attack that has been 31st in rushing success rate and EPA per rush since Stroud has been there. We know the defense will be elite. I’d invest in Houston making the postseason at -170 odds.”

Yahoo’s fantasy take

From Yahoo’s Scott Pianowski: “Nico Collins at his best is an awesome sight, a dominant receiver who can win on the entire route tree. But he’s had trouble staying healthy as a pro (19 missed games in five seasons) and he’s tied to a limited quarterback in C.J. Stroud. The Texans have an unmistakable identity — they aim to win with dominant defense and controlled offense. Collins still commands a top 20 pick in Yahoo leagues, which means you have to draft him at his ceiling. I’ll enjoy the show, but eschew that draft cost.”

Stat to remember

It’s hard to beat Myles Garrett in any pass-rushing stat. However, it was Will Anderson Jr. who led the NFL in hurries (74, six more than anyone else), pass rush win percentage (25.3%) and PFF’s pass rush productivity score last season. He was PFF’s No. 1-graded edge rusher last season, ahead of Garrett. Nobody was beating Garrett, who set the NFL’s single-season sack record, for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. But Anderson had a good case, and he is a great pick to win the award this season.

Anderson got a three-year, $150 million extension this offseason, the most per season for any non-quarterback in NFL history. While it was a shocking figure, Anderson has been worth it.

Anderson isn’t the only star on the Texans’ defense. Cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter are both excellent, safety Jalen Pitre is one of the best at his position, Azeez Al-Shaair is a fantastic three-down linebacker, defensive tackle Tommy Togiai had a breakout season alongside solid veteran Sheldon Rankins and Danielle Hunter is a perfect pass rushing complement for Anderson.

The Texans’ defense is absolutely loaded. Everyone saw that when Houston handed Josh Allen a career high eight sacks in a dominant Thursday night performance last season. But it’s Anderson who takes the unit to another level.

Burning question: Where does DeMeco Ryans rank among coaches?

It’s easy to forget how bad the Texans were when Ryans arrived. They were 11-38-1 the previous three seasons and a laughingstock due to a weird power structure in the front office and some awful decisions like the baffling DeAndre Hopkins trade. There was very little young talent and no viable quarterback on the roster. Houston was at rock bottom.

In came Ryans. He went 10-7 his first season, though maybe that didn’t get enough attention because everyone was focused on C.J. Stroud’s performance. Then Stroud regressed and the Texans never stopped, winning double-digit games each of the next two seasons as well behind a fantastic defense. Ryans has a .627 winning percentage. Right above him on the all-time list are Mike Tomlin (.628) and Sean Payton (.630), both of whom have good Hall of Fame cases already.

Ryans was a hot candidate three years ago and the Texans were fortunate to land him. He won’t be listed as a top-five coach until he at least reaches a Super Bowl, but he’s probably closer to that level than he’s given credit for.

Best-case scenario

This is easy: C.J. Stroud plays like he did as a rookie and the Texans become one of the NFL’s top few teams. And maybe the best team, period. It really might be that simple. It’s hard to imagine the defense falls back too much, though defensive success can be tough to predict from season to season. If Houston is the NFL’s best defense and Stroud is an MVP candidate — he did finish ninth in the MVP voting as a rookie — then the Texans might be nearly impossible to beat.

The Texans will then know they have no questions about their quarterback for the foreseeable future, as well. Unlike other teams, who need multiple things to go right to have any chance or are banking on a scenario that has infinitesimal odds of hitting, all the Texans really need is for Stroud to play like we’ve already seen him play for a season.

Nightmare scenario

What if C.J. Stroud is the exact same quarterback he has been the past two seasons? The Texans will have him through 2027 on his fifth-year option, but it’s almost impossible to know what to do with a quarterback who isn’t great but also isn’t terrible. Most teams just pay the average quarterback and ultimately regret it.

For this season, the Texans’ defense (which returns 10 starters from the end of last season and adds safety Reed Blankenship, and also held onto sought-after coordinator Matt Burke) keeps the team’s floor very high. Unless there are massive injuries, the Texans should be in playoff contention regardless of how the offense plays. But it would be disheartening for the Texans to feel like they’re wasting seasons of a championship-level defense.

The crystal ball says

A lot of this preview has centered on C.J. Stroud because there’s no way around it. Houston is the only team in our top 10 that has a major question at quarterback, and also a looming contract decision with a QB who seems impossible to figure out at the moment. How Stroud plays this season will guide the franchise’s direction, good or bad, for years to come.

To say there’s a lot on the line is an understatement. The Texans will be good enough to win a tough AFC South. They might also win a playoff game, like last season. But it’s also tough to believe Stroud will emerge as a top-five quarterback and lift the Texans to their first Super Bowl. He’ll probably be a little better than last season, but not significantly above average, and that will lead to some fascinating decisions for Houston next offseason.

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