Heading into the NHL’s 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs, we knew there would be brutal battles right from the start of the first round. For the most part, that’s what’s happened.
In the Western Conference, all four first-round series were tied at two games apiece after Sunday’s games.
With that in mind, let’s look at where the momentum in each of the first-round series is at the moment and whether that’s changed this writer’s pre-playoff predictions. Remember, what follows are educated guesses. You may disagree with some or many of our picks, but that’s the beauty of predictions – there’s rarely consensus, and that’s what makes things so compelling.
Winnipeg Jets (C1) vs. St. Louis Blues (WC2)
Where’s The Momentum? In St. Louis’ favor
Does That Change Our Prediction Of Jets Winning In Six Games? Yes
What’s Our Prediction Now? Blues in seven games
Why? The Jets narrowly won both games at home to start the series. But the Blues stormed back convincingly, winning Game 3 by a 7-2 score, then pulling even by beating the Jets 5-1 on Sunday. Outscoring Winnipeg by a 12-3 combined score does not bode well for star Jets goalie Connor Hellebuyck, who now has a 4.24 GAA and .817 SP.
In our initial prediction, we believed the Blues would win a couple of games, but they’ve already done that, and the momentum has swung in their direction. Home-ice advantage still favors the Jets, but we’re now of the opinion St. Louis can win a game in Winnipeg, either in Game 5 or Game 7. And if the Blues win in St. Louis, the series will end in the Blues’ favor.
That would spell big moves this summer for the Jets, who will be at a competitive crossroads. But unfortunately for Winnipeg, the Blues can physically dominate the Jets at crucial times, so we're switching up our pick for this series and going with St. Louis in seven games.
Vegas Golden Knights (P1) vs. Minnesota Wild (WC1)
Where’s The Momentum? In Vegas’ favor
Does That Change Our Prediction Of Golden Knights Winning In Five Games? Yes
What’s Our Prediction Now? Golden Knights in six games
Why? We’re owning our cynicism about the Wild, but we have to give them their due – Minnesota stunned Vegas with 5-2 victories in Games 2 and 3, momentarily stealing home-ice advantage from the Golden Knights, which won Game 1. However, the resilient Knights edged out the Wild in a 4-3 overtime win in Game 4 to even things up.
Obviously, our pick of Vegas in five games must be adjusted, but we’ve seen enough from the Golden Knights to double down on them. They’ve hung on to home-ice advantage without high-impact performances from stars Mark Stone and Jack Eichel, and we don’t believe the Wild will be able to hold that dynamic duo down much longer.
Vegas has taken Minnesota’s best blow and still managed to keep a series win well within its reach. The Golden Knights should and can win Game 5 to put the Wild on the brink of elimination, and we foresee Vegas winning Game 6 as well to send Minnesota home for the summer. The Knights’ depth separates them from the Wild, and that’s why we’re still comfortable picking Vegas to win this showdown. It’ll just take a couple more games for the Golden Knights to get it done.
Dallas Stars (C2) vs. Colorado Avalanche (C3)
Where’s The Momentum? In Colorado’s favor
Does That Change Our Prediction Of Avalanche Winning In Seven Games? No
What’s Our Prediction Now? Avalanche in seven games
Why? For a while there, the Stars had the Avalanche in a vulnerable position. After Colorado won Game 1 by a 5-1 score, Dallas pushed back by winning 4-3 and 2-1. Despite being behind the Stars, that still tracks for our initial prediction of an Avs series win in seven games.
After Colorado’s 4-0 blanking of Dallas in Game 4 – a game in which the Avalanche outshot the Stars 48-23 – it’s clear the Avs now have the momentum. The Avalanche have already shown they can win on the road in this series, and we expect they’ll win two of the next three games to eliminate the Stars.
Without injured superstar defenseman Miro Heiskanen and left winger Jason Robertson, Dallas doesn’t have the horses to close out a deeper, stronger Avs squad. Colorado flexed its muscles in Game 4, and nothing we’ve seen in the first four games has changed our mind about the winner of this series. Until further notice, the road to the Western Conference final goes through Denver. And Dallas will be the Avalanche’s first of many victims.
Los Angeles Kings (P2) vs. Edmonton Oilers (P3)
Where’s The Momentum? In Edmonton’s favor
Does That Change Our Prediction Of Kings Winning In Six Games? Yes
What’s Our Prediction Now? Kings in seven games
Why? The Kings scored a ton against the Oilers in this series’ first two games, posting six goals against Edmonton in each of Games 1 and 2. But the Kings weren’t exactly a defensive menace, as they surrendered a combined seven goals in those first two games. And the Oilers pounded the Kings by a 7-4 score in Game 3 before tying the series on Sunday.
In Games 3 and 4, Edmonton had to overcome multiple Kings leads, and that earned last year’s Stanley Cup finalists more respect in our eyes. That said, we did expect the Oilers to win a couple of games in our first prediction, so we’re not seeing anything that’s a gigantic surprise.
Yes, the momentum is in Edmonton’s favor, and we expect Edmonton to win another game, but the Kings still have home-ice advantage. That strong play at home is likely to be the difference, but it may take seven games for L.A. to send Edmonton packing. That’s a credit to the Oilers, but we remain a skeptical of Edmonton’s lineup, especially with key defenseman Mattias Ekholm out of action. The Kings remain our pick to win here, even if it takes one additional game to eliminate the Oilers.
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