No. 5 Miami vs. No. 18 South Florida prediction: Odds, expert picks, team overviews, key players, and stats

The Miami Hurricanes (2-0) welcome the surprising Bulls of South Florida (2-0) to Hard Rock Stadium Saturday afternoon. Originally billed as a walk-over for the Canes as they pursue a berth in the College Football Playoff, the Bulls’ early season upsets of Boise State and Florida have transformed this into a Top 20 showdown.

Lets dive into the matchup and maybe find a couple of sweats along the way.

Game Details and How to watch South Florida at Miami

Date: Saturday, September 13, 2025

Game Odds for South Florida at Miami

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: South Florida Bulls (+525), Miami Hurricanes (-750)
Spread: Miami -17.5 (-110)

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Miami Hurricanes

Head Coach: Mario Cristobal
2025 Record: 2-0
Offense Ranking: 4th
Defense Ranking: 62nd
Strength of Schedule: 43rd

The Miami Hurricanes are off to a 2–0 start in 2025, powered by an offense that ranks 4th nationally in SP+ while the defense lags behind at 62nd. Despite an elite 59.2% passing success rate (9th), Miami’s offense ranks just 117th in explosive passing and 122nd in yards per successful rush, relying more on efficiency than big plays. Defensively, they’re effective on early downs and in stuffing the run (31.6% success rate allowed, 27th; 26.3% stuff rate, 25th) but have struggled to generate pressure (93rd in pressure rate) and are vulnerable to explosive pass plays (60th in 20+ yard completions allowed). The ‘Canes are outperforming their SP+ projections overall (up 4.0 points vs. expected), but a -10.9 adjusted scoring margin vs. projections signals concern about sustainability against stronger opponents.

Miami Hurricanes Offense

Miami’s offense in 2025 has emerged as a top-tier unit, ranking 4th nationally in SP+ and 7th in success rate (58.5%), while demonstrating efficient drive finishing with 5.14 points per scoring opportunity (42nd). The Hurricanes are particularly strong through the air, boasting a 59.2% passing success rate (9th), 74.6% completion percentage (13th), and a sparkling Total QBR of 87.6 (3rd), though they remain one of the least explosive units with just 5.2% of plays gaining 20+ yards (96th). Their ground game has lacked explosiveness (122nd in yds/successful rush), but they remain effective on standard downs and are highly disciplined, allowing just 1.0 OL penalty per game (8th nationally).

Miami Hurricane to Watch on Offense: QB Carson Beck

Beck has been surgical through two games, completing 42-of-55 passes (76.4%) for 472 yards and a 4-to-0 TD-to-INT ratio. His 63.2% success rate and 10.0 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) highlight his ability to sustain drives while keeping the offense on schedule. Beck has been well-protected with just a 1.8% sack rate, though he has been pressured on 16.7% of dropbacks, managing it effectively with an 89.4 Total QBR. While his yards per completion sit at a modest 11.2, his exemplary performance against an elite Notre Dame secondary has thrusted Beck back into Heisman and NFL Draft consideration.

Miami Hurricanes Defense

Miami’s defense in 2025 has struggled to match its offensive firepower, currently ranking 62nd in SP+, 79th in yards per successful rush (9.0) and 121st in EPA per rush allowed, reflecting issues with giving up chunk plays on the ground. There is reason for optimism though, as the Canes D has been notably disruptive with a 26.3% stuff rate (25th), 31.6% rushing success rate allowed (27th) and a 4.2% interception rate (22nd). If Miami can manage to tamp down some of the explosive plays and find a way to bring down their unsightly 68.8% completion rate allowed, then Miami has a very reasonable path to a CFP Playoff berth.

Miami Hurricane to Watch on Defense: Edge Rueben Bain Jr.

Bain Jr. has been a disruptive force through the first two games of 2025, totaling 9 tackles (5 solo), 3.0 tackles for loss, and 1.5 sacks while posting a perfect 100% tackle rate on run plays. He leads the Hurricanes with 5 total havoc plays, including a forced fumble, a pass breakup, and one run stop. As a pass rusher, Bain has generated 6 pressures on 25 rushes, for a strong 24.0% pressure rate and an impressive 66.7% pressure rate on third down. His impact has extended beyond the stat sheet, creating consistent backfield disruption and helping to set the edge for Miami’s defensive front.

USF Bulls

Head Coach: Alex Golesh
2025 Record: 2-0
Offense Ranking: 44th
Defense Ranking: 81st
Strength of Schedule: 66th

South Florida is off to a surprising 2–0 start, notching wins over Boise State and Florida while outperforming SP+ projections by a combined +58.0 points across those two games. The defense has a bend but don’t break element to it, ranking top-25 nationally in red zone TD rate (33.3%) and points per scoring opportunity allowed (2.09), while also generating a +1 turnover margin. Offensively, the Bulls remain inefficient (117th in success rate) but make up for it with elite explosiveness metrics including 15.9 yards per successful play (6th) and a 9.3% rate of 20+ yard gains (22nd).

USF Bulls Offense

South Florida’s offense remains a work in progress, ranking 117th in overall success rate (35.6%) and struggling badly in red zone efficiency with just a 42.9% RZ touchdown rate (129th). The Bulls are reliant on big plays, averaging 15.9 yards per successful play (6th nationally), but they convert just 66.7% of new sets of downs (99th), limiting sustained drives. The run game ranks 119th in rushing success rate and is a dismal 128th in yards per carry before contact (0.04), placing a heavy burden on explosive plays and yards after contact (4.14 = 13th), many of which come from QB Byrum Brown. Despite these efficiency related struggles, the offensive line has held up exceptionally well, ranking 34th in total blown block rate and 38th in pressures allowed, giving the offense a fighting chance to stretch the field.

USF Bull to Watch on Offense: Byrum Brown

The USF quarterback has been a dual-threat presence through two starts, completing 65.0% of his passes for 473 yards and a touchdown without turning the ball over. While his completion percentage is solid, his passing success rate of just 35.2% indicates inefficiency at sustaining drives, and he’s taken sacks on a staggering 55.6% of pressures. On the ground, Brown has contributed 136 yards and two scores on 26 carries (5.23 YPC), but his rushing success rate (34.6%) also suggests volatility rather than consistency. Despite flashes of explosiveness, Brown must improve his down-to-down efficiency and handle pressure better to elevate the Bulls’ offense.

USF Bulls Defense

USF’s defense has quietly put together a sturdy start to the 2025 season, ranking 14th nationally in EPA per play allowed and 9th in points allowed per scoring opportunity. The Bulls are especially stout in high-leverage situations, sitting 14th in red zone TD rate (33.3%) and 7th in goal-to-go defense (0.0% TDs allowed). They’ve thrived on early-down disruption, allowing just 3.9 yards per rush (60th) and holding opponents to a 38.9% passing success rate (73rd). While not dominant across the board, USF’s defense has significantly outperformed expectations – ranking 2nd nationally in defensive SP+ overperformance relative to preseason projections.

USF Bull to Watch on Defense: LB Jhalyn Shuler

Shuler has emerged as one of USF’s most active defenders through two games, leading the Bulls with 15 total tackles, including 7 solo stops. He’s been particularly effective against the run, posting 3 run stops and a solid 93.8% tackle efficiency rate. Shuler has generated 2 havoc plays, highlighted by 1 TFL and a fumble recovery, providing consistent disruption from the inside linebacker position and tone setter of the defense.

Bulls vs. Hurricanes team stats, betting trends

Miami (FL) has won 8 of its last 9 at home
South Florida has covered the Spread in 7 of its last 10 road games
The Over is 7-3 in South Florida’s last 5 on the road and Miami (FL)’s last 5 at home combined

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): USF QB Byrum Brown – Longest rush OVER 18.5 yards

As mentioned above, Miami has shown a vulnerability to giving up big plays on the ground ranking 79th in yards per successful rush allowed (9.0) and 121st in EPA per rush. On the other side, USF is heavily reliant on big plays averaging 15.9 yards per successful play, which ranks 6th in the nation. USF QB Byrum Brown has popped a 20+ yard run in each of his last 5 games played dating back to last season, I’m taking him to go Over 18.5 yards on his longest rush.

Vaugh Dalzell (@VmoneySports): 1Q Under 13.5 (-116)

South Florida and Florida combined for three possessions in the first quarter whereas against Boise State, the Bulls and Broncos had five combined drives with one touchdown. For Miami, they ended the first quarter 0-0 versus Notre Dame with three punts, a fumble, and a turnover on downs that followed that fumble. The Hurricanes rank 113th in plays per second (29.5), while the Bulls are 29th (24.1). I played the first quarter under 13.5 at -118 odds. I’d take my chances for a 0.5 unit and +100 or better at 12.5.

***

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Bulls and the Hurricanes:

Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the South Florida Bulls at +17.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 56.5.

Enjoy Week 3 in college football and lets cash a few tickets!

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