A narrow win over a top-5 Nebraska team set up a huge test in East Lansing a few days later for the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines. That tone-setting takedown of the then-No. 7 Michigan State Spartans put the Wolverines in a strong position in the Big Ten Standings, and subsequent victories over Purdue, Illinois, and plenty of others has made Sunday’s regular season finale moot in terms of the conference crown.
Of course, the return game in the head-to-head is far from meaningless. Michigan is still competing for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, and rivalry games always matter, regardless of how the standings sit. The visitors have plenty to play for themselves, as well, vying for seeing in both postseason affairs. Still, the banner is going up one way or the other, as the Big Ten title race has been over for a while now.
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No. 8 Michigan State (25-5, 15-4) at No. 3 Michigan (28-2, 18-1)
Date & Time: Sunday, Mar. 8, 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI
TV/Streaming: CBS
The Wolverines stormed out way ahead in January’s victory and led by 16 at halftime, but unsurprisingly, State came all the way back. In fact, the home team even took the lead with under eight minutes remaining before Michigan closed out the game on a 26-12 run. Yaxel Lendeborg and Elliot Cadeau were instrumental in the monumental win, but really just about the whole lineup played an important role that evening.
As an aside, I believe a win would be the first time Michigan would have gone 4-0 against Michigan State and Ohio State in a regular season since 1993-94 (Year 3 of the Fab Five — well, of what remained). Regardless, it certainly has not been done since the conference expanded to 12…or 14…or 18…so this would be a massive achievement.
Two Stats to Watch
Michigan State OReb: 37.4% (2nd B1G)
The Spartans grabbed 37.5% of their misses in East Lansing, and this is an evergreen (and white?) problem area when facing Tom Izzo. Few teams are better at getting these rebounds, and with State hitting just 55% of its twos (10th in the conference) second-chance opportunities are not just a benefit but a necessity. Thankfully, this did not cost Michigan the first game, but there needs to be improvement this time around.
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Michigan still remains just about league-average in this regard, and there have been plenty of instances where opponents were able to frustratingly keep possessions alive, with Purdue, Duke, and Illinois all recording offensive rebounding rates above 34%. Obviously, this has not necessarily cost the Wolverines too significantly (Wisconsin did nothing special in this area), but the Duke game — and final minute — should at least bring some attention to the potential problem.
Some of these results might be due to style, as Dusty May wants his teams to run out in transition, which might sacrifice bodies on the defensive glass. However, as the Tournament approaches, it is fair to question if this is the correct approach. How the Wolverines fair against State in the rematch could play a role in how the defense addresses this dimension going forward.
Michigan Turnovers: 17.1% (14th B1G)
Final regular season game, how can we ignore the biggest lingering weakness? The sloppiness in Iowa City continued a trend of bad-good-bad-good-bad turnover rates over the past five games, and there is no singular area that is more frustrating about this team. The good news is that it seems controllable (the second half was better than the opening stretch on Thursday, for example), but the time for exhibiting that control must be now.
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Both teams were right around the same mark in the first matchup, which represents a win for the Spartans. While State is equally sloppy taking care of the ball, the Michigan defense is the one who posts better takeaway numbers. Allowing turnovers to be even once again is giving the visitors too much opportunity to stay in the game, and the Wolverines need to be aware of Jeremy Fears when it comes to avoiding offensive fouls.
This is not just a Cadeau criticism. Morez Johnson and Aday Mara had just as many turnovers as the point guard did against Iowa, and while they come in different varieties, the reality is that everyone needs to clean up this area of their game. The Spartans are not going to force the offense into mistakes, so this is the time to focus a little harder on ball security. Sunday is about setting up for something special ahead.
