SOUTH BEND – What would it all look like in March for a Notre Dame women’s basketball team that lost three of five to close the 2024-25 regular season?
What version of the Irish would we get? That one or the one that rolled to 19 consecutive victories during the regular season and beat the likes of Connecticut and Texas and USC?
We didn’t know what we’d see from Notre Dame, but we likely didn’t expect to see two home wins by an average of 36.5 points to open NCAA Women’s Tournament play. Two wins where Notre Dame (28-5) led for 74:26 out of a total of 80 minutes and trailed for all of 3:05. At one point in the opener, Notre Dame led Stephen F. Austin by 55.
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Now, here comes the Kryptonite for Notre Dame.
For the fourth straight season, Notre Dame has advanced to the Sweet 16. For the previous three years, this has been the stopping point for the Irish. Notre Dame won its second national championship in 2018, played for a third but lost to Baylor in 2019, did not take part in the 2020 (there was none) and 2021 tournaments and then was sent home in the Sweet 16 in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
Time for these Irish to get over that hump.
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Scouting the TCU Horned Frogs
How did TCU (33-3), a program that was 8-23 two short seasons ago, get so good so fast? Two words – transfer portal.
Of the 14 players on the TCU roster, 11 are transfers, including six who have made multiple transfer stops. TCU got good because it got old with the right mix of college basketball players who have known success in their careers. The starting lineup features three graduate students (Hailey Van Lith, Agnes Emma-Nnopu, Sedonna Prince), a senior (Madison Conner) and a sophomore (Donovyn Hunter). That’s a ton of experience.
Leading the way is Van Lith, the Big 12 player and newcomer of the year who leads the Horned Frogs in just about everything while averaging 17.7 points, 4.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists in 35.1 minutes. The first time these teams met in late November, Van Lith went for 21 points, seven rebounds and three assists. She’s the key, but she also has a lot of company. Expect the veteran Prince to be a problem in the post.
TCU enters its first Sweet 16 in school history winners of 13 straight since last losing February 5 at Kansas. The Horned Frogs won’t be intimidated by Notre Dame or by its Atlantic Coast Conference affiliation. TCU is 3-0 against the ACC this season and 8-2 against ranked teams.
The Horned Frogs have lost three games — to South Carolina, to Oklahoma State and to Kansas. Three games, the same number that Notre Dame lost over its final five.
March Madness Sweet 16
Notre Dame women vs TCU prediction
These teams know one another well having played in November in the Cayman Islands. There’s history there and there should be some lingering sting as well. Notre Dame led for 33:39 and by as many as 14 points before a fourth-quarter collapse that saw TCU go on a 31-12 run over the final 10 minutes and a 76-68 win.
Notre Dame wants a second chance at a win; TCU wants a chance to prove that game was no fluke. We might be set up for a classic Sweet 16 showdown. March is overdue for one that leaves everyone dizzy. This game may deliver it with two teams who each believe that this is their time.
Prediction: Notre Dame 86, TCU 85 (double overtime).
Follow South Bend Tribune and NDInsider columnist Tom Noie on X (formerly Twitter): @tnoieNDI. Contact Noie at tnoie@sbtinfo.com
This article originally appeared on South Bend Tribune: Notre Dame women’s basketball vs. TCU prediction for March Madness Sweet 16
