Super Rugby Pacific has woken from its slow, steady, slumbering decline. Long may its rebirth continue.
There’s an inherent danger in reading into results too soon but the tea leaves strongly suggest this will be the most competitive, captivating Super season since COVID forced a radical rebrand.
With the odd exception, Super Rugby Pacific has been consistently undermined by New Zealand domination and a procession of predictable results.
Not this year, though. Engrossing upsets and uncertainty have replaced apathy.
While the Chiefs remain early-season favourites, predicting the top six finals format is now a fraught exercise.
The demise of the Melbourne Rebels; the awakening of Pasifika teams Moana and the Fijian Drua and the continued law tweaks that encourage fast, attacking intent have all contributed to the shifting paradigm.
Through this year’s first four rounds – the first time since 1998 every team has registered at least one win by this stage – you could point to many abnormalities as evidence of the significantly increased competitiveness.
Last weekend three of the four New Zealand teams in action – the Chiefs, Blues and Hurricanes – suffered defeats. Such a turn of events was unthinkable last year.
As they powered their way to their first title in 18 years the Blues, in their maiden campaign under Vern Cotter, lost twice last season. This year, they are one win from four to leave their title defence teetering on the brink.
Last year the Hurricanes topped the regular season. Now they sit last.
Such contrasting comparisons go on.
With the unique blend of vibrancy, colour, music and volume it’s easy to get heady about the Pasifika movement transfixing Super Rugby.
Results aside, Moana and the Drua’s combined point of difference will only prove more valuable in the years ahead as their rosters and resources grow and consumers seek genuine connection.
While there is, indeed, a long way to trek this season, Moana under Tana Umaga’s guidance are undoubtedly on the move. Ardie Savea’s arrival has lifted standards and will, in time, inspire other notable names to follow his lead.
Off the field Moana finally have a home on Auckland’s North Shore and their efforts to engage that fan base, such as allowing braais outside the stadium in recent weeks, are paying off.
Start-up teams always need time to find their feet.
The more Moana stays true to their pathway purpose to identify and unearth talent such as Tongan playmaker Patrick Pellegrini and Samoan loose forward Miracle Faiilagi to complement their headline recruits, the more competitive they will become.
On the field Moana could easily be three from four after their one-point defeat to the Force in Perth and the narrow home loss to the Highlanders.
Tougher tests await but Savea’s presence is delivering immediate rewards.
The most pleasing aspect of Moana’s first success against the Hurricanes this season was it came after the talismanic captain departed at halftime, forcing others to stand tall.
Elsewhere the atmosphere in Lautoka, where the Drua handed the Chiefs their first defeat, is unlike anything else in world rugby.
The Drua have everything to prove away from home where their record remains woeful, but they have been vastly more competitive, having pushed the Waratahs and Hurricanes to the wire in Sydney and Napier.
The other big shift has come in Australia.
Not that long ago five Australian teams couldn’t buy a win against Kiwi opposition to the point those fixtures were forgone conclusions before a ball was kicked.
Following the horrid Eddie Jones era, Joe Schmidt’s relentless drive for accuracy and detail helped revive the Wallabies’ confidence which has filtered down to Australia’s reduced four Super teams.
Coupled with condensing the talent pool — a notion that should have happened long ago — and the injection of quality coaches such as Dan McKellar, Australia has closed the gap.
While it’s early doors the Brumbies notched their first win in 12 years at Eden Park, and McKellar’s Waratahs are the only unbeaten team.
These are the results the once lopsided competition desperately needed.
At this point in the season, with four points separating third and 11th and the brand of entertaining rugby proving enticing, Super Rugby Pacific is threatening to transform into a marketer’s dream.
“It does feel like there’s been a shift,” Hurricanes coach Clark Laidlaw noted. “Long may it continue, the last thing we want is a competition with runaway leaders. It’s frustrating as hell for us tonight but fair play to Moana, they deserved their win.”
From a New Zealand perspective there will be some concern for the Blues and Hurricanes.
While the Highlanders, thanks to Jamie Joseph’s return, have improved and the Crusaders, with Will Jordan in menacing form and Sevu Reece savouring the sun on his back, banished the depths of their decline, no one predicted the Blues’ rapid descent.
Injuries have hit the Hurricanes and Blues hard – Beauden Barrett the latest for the latter – but all teams must cope with defections.
The next two weeks are crucial to the Blues and Hurricanes fortunes but, given the congested nature of this year’s competition, there will be a sense of taihoa, be patient, hold on, for now at least.
While easy on the eye the knock-on effects of a largely homogenised style from the New Zealand and Australian teams — and the flimsy defence of some sides — is yet to be fully assessed.
South Africa’s absence robs Super Rugby of a stark contrast but as winter fast approaches, teams will be forced to adapt in the coming weeks to their test set-piece and tactical kicking elements more.
It’s too early to say whether the slow burn form of some incumbent All Blacks will affect Scott Robertson’s selections.
Midfielders Timoci Tavatavanawai, Quinn Tupaea, David Havili and Hurricanes openside Du’Plessis Kirifi are among the big early movers. But, as with the evolving conditions, the All Blacks’ notebooks carry much more weight later in the campaign when finals footy elevates pressure and meaning.
For now, the All Blacks will, like the growing audience, be sitting back to enjoy Super Rugby’s budding revival.
