Oddsmakers rank all 32 NFL starting QBs by point-spread value: Josh Allen is the clear No. 1

Playing quarterback in the NFL is the most valuable position in team sports, but every team has a different starting and backup QB, so determining the gap in point-spread value between the two can be an extremely useful tool for bettors.

Put another way: How much would the spread move if Patrick Mahomes was suddenly injured leading up to a game and Justin Fields was forced to be the starter?

It’s an important question for bettors (and bookmakers) alike to answer, and one that has real-world applications every NFL season.

For example, back in January when Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix was ruled out of the AFC Championship Game with a broken ankle suddenly (leaving Jarrett Stidham as the starter), the Broncos went from a lookahead line of Denver -1.5 to +4.5 against the New England Patriots (which was then quickly bet up to Denver +5.5).

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Readers of last year’s version of this article would have known that was an overcorrection and could have placed a wager on the Broncos to cover, as oddsmakers had pegged Nix as worth 3.85 points more against the spread than Stidham before the season began. The market ended up moving back towards Denver and the Broncos closed as 3.5-point underdogs (a 4-point difference from the lookahead line). Denver lost 10-7, but covered the number.

When moving a line based off a QB change, there are a wide variety of factors oddsmakers consider, including:

The current line and how close it is to a key number
Starting QB’s talent level, plus the quality of the backup
How much of the offense would need to change with the backup
Strength of the play caller and head coach
Overall talent level of the team (how good is rest of offense and defense)
Where/when the game is being played

Over the summer, I polled 11 oddsmakers from 10 different legal sportsbooks and prediction markets across the country, and asked them for the difference in point spread if the starting QB and backup (both healthy) were playing at home against a league-average team. I then took all 11 different ATS values, averaged them together and ranked the starting QBs in order from greatest impact to least. Oddsmakers were granted anonymity to honestly voice their opinions of QBs they were higher or lower on than consensus.

Last year, Josh Allen moved into the No. 1 overall spot for the first time, slightly ahead of Patrick Mahomes; this year, Allen has put some distance between the two QBs. After an MVP season (and with rookie Ty Simpson as his backup), Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford has catapulted up to No. 3 overall. Stafford is followed by Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson.

In one of the more surprising moves, Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow moved from fifth last year (5.60 points ATS) to 12th this year (4.89). There was certainly some disagreement among oddsmakers over the ATS difference between Burrow and his new backup Joe Flacco, as six oddsmakers had that difference as 4.5 points or less and four had it as 5.75 points or greater.

Here is how much every starting QB is worth relative to his backup, according to the 11-oddsmaker panel:

Top 5 QBs by ATS value

1. Josh Allen, Bills (7.23 points ATS)

Backup QB: Kyle Allen

The good news for Bills fans is that there now isn’t any debate among oddsmakers about which QB is the most valuable player against the spread compared to his backup — it’s Allen’s world. The bad news is that another heartbreaking playoff defeat left Allen’s Bills short of the Super Bowl — again.

“To me, he’s the most talented QB in the league,” one oddsmaker told me. “The durability as well would put him ahead of Mahomes.”

To that point, Allen has missed exactly one game in the past seven seasons, and at 6-foot-5, 237 pounds he is able to punish defensive backs, safeties and even linebackers when he chooses to run the ball. Allen has at least 421 rushing yards in every season of his career and scored 14 rushing TDs (along with 3,668 yards and 25 TDs passing) this past season.

As one oddsmaker put it: “He is the entire Bills identity right now.”

Not one, but two oddsmakers had Allen worth 9 points more to the spread than his new backup Kyle Allen and Josh Allen was the only QB that all 11 oddsmakers had as worth at least worth 6 points against the number.

Still, concerns about turnovers remain and for Allen (10 INTs, 6 fumbles last season) they reared their ugly head in a very winnable postseason loss to the Broncos in which he was responsible for four turnovers.

The Bills have won at least 11 games for six consecutive seasons and Allen (+650) is the favorite to win MVP. Buffalo’s over/under for this season is 10.5 and the Bills should be in the postseason again (-350 to make the playoffs).

Is this finally the year for the Bills and the NFL’s most valuable QB against the spread?

2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (6.32 points ATS)

Backup QB: Justin Fields

There’s no shame in being No. 2, but it isn’t a familiar position for the three-time Super Bowl winning QB Mahomes. Coming off a disappointing season where he cleared 300 yards passing just twice (and tossed 11 INTs), the Chiefs went 6-11 and Mahomes tore both his ACL and MCL in Week 15, there are a few more questions regarding the three-time MVP from pundits. Oddsmakers aren’t as concerned.

“You could see when he was off the field last year how big a swing it was for the Chiefs,” one Vegas oddsmaker told Yahoo Sports. “He is a man amongst boys when it comes to quarterbacks. This is a pivotal season for him.”

Mahomes was fully cleared for training camp participation coming off his knee injuries, but even if he indeed starts Week 1 it’s unlikely he’s back to his full powers right away. Mahomes was third last year in clutch-weighted expected points added through rushes (24.7), and his running has always been a little under appreciated. It’s an element of his game that Mahomes has admitted he’ll have to use a little less, especially early on in his recovery.

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One oddsmaker noted that he’d have Mahomes around 3.5 points more valuable ATS to start the season and closer to six full points later in the season when Mahomes was closer to full health.

“Everything I’ve been reading and hearing has been very optimistic, so I fully expect Mahomes to look like the same guy we’ve seen,” a longtime oddsmaker noted. “The interesting piece is the difference in backups with Fields and Minshew. From a rating perspective, I have them rated very similar — and maybe that’s doing a disservice to Fields, but he’s never lived up to the potential some people thought he had out of Ohio State. Backing up Mahomes could be the best thing ever to happen to Fields.”

Mahomes has always had a weaker backup QB (Carson Wentz, Gardner Minshew, Justin Fields) than many other teams, which has boosted Mahomes’ spread value, but as one oddsmaker said, “if I had to pick one [between Mahomes and Allen], it’s still Mahomes.”

3. Matthew Stafford, LA Rams (6.16 points ATS)

Backup QB: Ty Simpson

One of the biggest risers in this column year over year — he was tied for 16th at 4.10 points ATS last year — Stafford is here both because he had a terrific season (4,707 passing yards, 46 TDs, No. 4 in QBR, won MVP) and because his backup is rookie QB Ty Simpson out of Alabama.

“Who knows if Simpson take a snap this year, but I have him rated at zero,” a long-time oddsmaker remarked. “Last year, [the backup] was Jimmy Garappolo who obviously was a proven commodity and we had good data on him. That’s going to make up some of that difference year over year for Stafford, and obviously he played at an MVP level. The old man still has it.”

The Super Bowl favorites at sportsbooks, Los Angeles is tied for the NFL’s highest win total at 11.5 and has the best odds (-500) of any team to make the postseason. Keeping Stafford healthy — remember the preseason back concerns last year? — is of paramount importance for another postseason run.

“I might be a little lower on him just because of the Sean McVay system, and you add in the fact that the backup is a first-round pick,” one Vegas oddsmaker who is a bigger believer in Simpson noted. “If Stafford got hurt, I have full faith in McVay making the offense easier for Simpson. I don’t expect Stafford to fall off physically — he was never a runner earlier in his career and I haven’t seen any drop-off in arm strength. One thing to worry about is his durability.”

Several oddsmakers did express concern about Simpson’s ability to step in right away if Stafford was injured, though, and one stated that “you just don’t know what you’re going to get” from a rookie QB like Simpson, who also only started 15 college games in his Alabama career.

As one NFL risk manager put simply, “I know he’s getting older but going from a Hall of Fame QB to an unproven rookie would be a major odds swing.”

4. Drake Maye, Patriots (5.93 points ATS)

Backup QB: Tommy DeVito

There’s no doubt that Maye wishes he could’ve played better in New England‘s postseason run to Super Bowl 60. There’s also no doubt that the 2025 MVP runner-up had a terrific sophomore campaign and now is one of the most valuable QBs against the spread in the league. And there’s no doubt that having DeVito as his backup helps to boost Maye’s spread value.

“Obviously, Maye is ascending,” one veteran Vegas bookmaker mentioned over the phone. “DeVito in my opinion is one of the worst backups on this list, though. I think he was a great story [with the Giants], but I don’t think too much of him.”

When I did this exercise entering Maye’s rookie year, oddsmakers had him as 1.6 points ATS worse than Patriots starter Jacoby Brissett. Maye was 23rd last season, rated 3.08 points ATS better than Josh Dobbs. A season where he led New England to a 14-3 record and an AFC East division title, along with topping the NFL in Total QBR (77.1) and Total Expected Points Added (169.96) has resulted in another jump for the Patriots’ franchise QB.

There was a little wider range for Maye, with oddsmakers valuing him anywhere from 4 points to 7.5 points of spread value compared to DeVito.

The oddsmaker who was lowest on Maye, cautioned, “I did move Maye up slightly from last year. While there’s a definite downgrade to DeVito, I exercise a little caution on not going too out there on Maye, as you could see some regression with him and certainly the Patriots have a much more difficult schedule as well.”

5. Lamar Jackson, Ravens (5.89 points ATS)

Backup QB: Tyler Huntley

A staple of the top five of these rankings over the past three seasons, Jackson has been third, third and now fifth — just behind Maye. Despite an injury-plagued season, oddsmakers don’t have too many fears about Jackson slowing down — as seen by Baltimore‘s win total (11.5, tied with Rams for NFL’s highest) and Jackson (+850) owning the second-best MVP odds.

“No concerns whatsoever with Lamar,” an East Coast oddsmaker told Yahoo Sports. “This year-over-year was a difference between Tyler Huntley and Cooper Rush. That’s why for me the ATS difference shrunk was because of the backup.”

Huntley has shown he’s a capable backup for small stretches, and that the offense doesn’t have to change too much if he’s inserted as the starter. Yes, a new head coach in Jesse Minter and a new offensive coordinator in Declan Doyle will require an adjustment period, but Jackson was still ninth in QBR (62.9) and 18th in EPA/play (0.07) in a down year.

“He was injured for half of the season and the Ravens had an off year in general,” one Vegas bookmaker explained. “Lamar still has his running ability and evasiveness. Not the greatest passer, but he was forced to work on that last year. This year, with a new system, we have high expectations that he’ll throw more effectively. He’ll still be a really big problem and threat to the defense.”

Full rankings

The point-spread difference between the starting and backup QBs for all 32 NFL teams.

(Ben Fawkes)

Biggest riser

Malik Willis, Dolphins (+7.87 points ATS)

Backup QB: Quinn Ewers

Willis was a multi-year backup with the Green Bay Packers behind Jordan Love, and entered last season as 4.73 points ATS worse than Love. He signed a three-year, $67.5 million contract with the Miami Dolphins in free agency and enters this season 3.14 points ATS more valuable than backup QB Quinn Ewers.

Willis will have a steep task as Miami’s starting QB in the beginning of a rebuild, but he does have an opportunity he wouldn’t have gotten in Green Bay. Can De’Von Achane catch passes, too?

Biggest fallers

J.J. McCarthy, Vikings (-5.07 points ATS)

Starting QB: Kyler Murray

The former Michigan Wolverine and 2024 No. 10 overall pick has had a rough go of it in the NFL thus far, losing his rookie season to injury and struggling mightily (11 TDs, 12 INTs, under 182 yards passing in eight of 10 starts, 57.6% completion percentage).

One Vegas oddsmaker: “I didn’t see McCathy as being another Tom Brady coming out of Michigan, but it was tough to watch some of those throws. Kyler’s stock has gone down as well, but you can’t go with McCarthy after what we saw last year.”

McCarthy was the presumed starter last year in Minnesota and oddsmakers had him as 2.02 points ATS better than Sam Howell; now, he’s rated 3.05 points ATS worse than free-agent signee and potential starter Kyler Murray.

“I’m not completely out on McCarthy, but I understand why they made the move,” an oddsmaker revealed. Murray was the No. 1 overall pick for a reason. Kyler got to pick his team and he saw the Vikings as the best situation.”

This QB battle is still playing out, as neither player will likely be named the starter until preseason, but oddsmakers certainly believe Murray is the more valuable quarterback to the spread — by far.

Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (-3.48 points ATS)

Backup QB: Michael Penix Jr.

Released by Miami back in March, Tagovailoa will cost the Dolphins a league-record $99.2 million in dead money against the salary cap over the next two seasons. Tua was injured again last season, but when was on the field he also tossed a career-high 15 INTs (and only 20 TDs) and had a career-low 43 rushing yards. He also was 26th in QBR (37.5).

He’ll be battling Michael Penix Jr. (also coming off an injury) for the starting job. Oddsmakers don’t have high hopes for a turnaround.

“I think Tua is going to end up the starter there personally, but it’s hard to differentiate between those two QBs,” one oddsmaker observed.

To wit: Penix Jr. averaged 0.02 EPA/play last season (24th) and Tagovailoa averaged 0.0 EPA/play (28th).

It’s a precipitous drop for the former No. 5 overall pick, who was worth 4.48 points ATS in 2024 and 4.50 points ATS in 2025. Now, he’s last in the league in the eyes of oddsmakers, worth just 1.02 points more than Penix Jr.

Quick-hitters from oddsmakers on some other notable QBs

“There’s been almost no talk of him this offseason. Everyone knows he’s almost in that elite status, just doesn’t have the accolades to back it up. [Mike] McDaniel coming in should help. [Jim] Harbaugh is the CEO, so McDaniels can run the offense. I think Herbert is going be the biggest winner of that scenario. Trey Lance really hasn’t shown anything.”

T-8. Jalen Hurts, Eagles (5.25)

“I did downgrade Hurts half a point from the start of last year. I think some of this is predicated on Tanner McKee. For whatever reason, Eagles fans love McKee. Hurts has a new offensive coordinator coming in, and I think it’s an upgrade. He may be under center more. I think Hurts has a bounce-back year and still dangerous with his legs. Certainly a dual threat and with the drop-off with him and McKee, it’s one of the biggest differences in the league still. I only have three guys higher and a handful around the same.”

Joe Burrow, Bengals (4.89)

“Almost feels insulting to Burrow for him to not be higher, but this is more off Flacco last year looked like he still had some in the tank and was a solid enough game manager.”
“I can speak from being old – Flacco is old. He’s been around a long time. He can come in for an injured Burrow and finish a game. I’m not even sure that’s who the Bengals want as a backup QB, but that’s who he has. There’s a big difference between these two guys.”

CINCINNATI, OHIO - JULY 29: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals talks to the media during Cincinnati Bengals Training Camp at Kettering Health Practice Fields on July 29, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) — CINCINNATI, OHIO – JULY 29: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals talks to the media during Cincinnati Bengals Training Camp at Kettering Health Practice Fields on July 29, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

(Andy Lyons via Getty Images)

“I did bump Caleb year over year. A lot of people in media want to talk about the highlight-reel plays, but that’s not what you make a power rating out of. Did he benefit from coaching last year? Most definitely. I’m excited to see what happens when we follow up this season, I’m hesitant to put him that much higher than his backup.”
“There’s been a love affair with the Bears this offseason and how Caleb is working within this Ben Johnson system. He has the ability to make plays happen, like Mahomes, under pressure he can make quick decisions and they’re usually the right ones. He struggled with his accuracy, especially early last year, which is going to drive down his market value a little bit.”

“Darnold had a great year. I think Lock is capable. I was even thinking that this could’ve been lower, but when you lead a team to a Super Bowl you get a lot of mileage out of that. They have a great defense as well. If you’re asking this question a few years ago, it’s a toss up.”

“I guess we know for sure the answer to this one, lol.”

“How big is that spread difference? We saw when Davis Mills would be announced the starter, the spread didn’t move that much – that’s why I only went with 2.5. That defense takes a way a lot of problems.”
“This is a big year for Stroud. The Texans are loaded and could easily go far. I could see him being No. 6 or something next year. Mills is a very competent backup. You don’t hear about him, ‘Oh, no they’re going to Mills.’ He’s solid. The issues Stroud had led me to 3.5, along with the respect for Mills. Texans have a great defense as well, which lessens the impact.”

“I don’t think he’s any good anymore. Is he going to go in and have a couple of good games? Yeah. Can he run away and get away from anyone? Not anymore.”
“Last year, I really didn’t know what we’d get out of Rodgers. I did upgrade my rating on Rodgers slightly off my preseason rating. I think Mason Rudolph is a very capable backup. I wouldn’t go to 3 as the difference – that would be a little bit too much respect for where Rodgers is at this point in his career.”
“He played alright last year. Made the throws he needed to. He’s just old. He’s throwing 5 yards and the guy is running 30 yards for a TD. That’s why I have it so low. I don’t think there’s that big a difference.”

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