Nobody likes a good prediction more than we do here at Buckeyes Wire, and in fact, we get into it ourselves as well when the time comes and will throughout the 2025 Ohio State and college football season.
But if you’ve followed us at all, you know we like to check in on what the ESPN “Matchup Predictor” says about the probability of Ohio State winning each game on its schedule on a weekly basis. The ESPN computers always adjusts things after the latest slate of games, and we like to check in each time.
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The Buckeyes scored a bushel of points and gave up none on Saturday against Grambling State, so you would think that things are even more favorable than what we saw upon the initial release of these projected percentage chances of winning each game on the regular-season schedule. Did things stay the same with Ohio State’s chances of running the rest of the schedule after ESPN’s metrics were wrong about the Longhorns winning? Which way did things move with Michigan, Penn State, and Oregon?
Here’s what ESPN’s “Matchup Predictor” says about Ohio State and its chances of winning the remainder of every game left on the regular season schedule in 2025. We include games already played and the results, which in this case are just the first couple of weeks of the season.
First up … Games Completed
Aug 30, 2025; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) makes a catch against Texas Longhorns defensive back Malik Muhammad (5) in the first half at Ohio Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
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Predicted winner | Texas (53.3%)
Actual result | Ohio State won 14-7
All-time series | Ohio State leads 3-2
Actual Record | 1-0
Sept. 6 vs. Grambling State
Grambling’s Julian Calvez during their game against Pine Bluff Saturday afternoon, November 5, 2022, at the Eddie G. Robinson Memorial Stadium at Grambling State University.
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State (99.0%)
Buckeyes win probability | 99.0% (no change)
Actual result | Ohio State won 77-0
All-time series | Ohio State now leads 1-0
Actual running record | 2-0
Next … Games still to be played
Sept. 13 vs. Ohio
Dec 20, 2024; Orlando, FL, USA; Ohio Bobcats quarterback Parker Navarro (13) calls a play at the line against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks in the third quarter at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 95.4% (up from 95.3%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 7-0
Projected running record | 3-0
Nov 11, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies wide receiver Rome Odunze (1) and quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) celebrate after Odunze scored a touchdown against the Utah Utes during the second half at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports
Location | Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
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Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 76.5% (down from 77.8%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 9-3
Projected running record | 4-0
Oct. 4 vs. Minnesota
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 91.6% (down from 91.8%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 48-7
Projected running record | 5-0
Nov. 11 at Illinois
Nov 23, 2024; Piscataway, New Jersey, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema looks on during the second half against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Location | Memorial Stadium (Champaign, Illinois)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 74.3% (down from 81.6%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 69-30-4
Projected running record | 6-0
Wisconsin head coach Luke Fickell is shown during their game Friday, August 30, 2024 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 28-14.
Location | Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)
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Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 83.6% (up from 81.2%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 63-18-5
Projected running record | 7-0
COLUMBUS, OHIO – OCTOBER 21: Kaden Saunders #7 of the Penn State Nittany Lions celebrates his fourth quarter touchdown with teammates Dante Cephas #3 and Tyler Warren #44 of the Penn State Nittany Lions during a game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium on October 21, 2023 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 64.6% (up from 61.1%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 26-14
Projected running record | 8-0
Nov. 8 at Purdue
Purdue Boilermakers defensive back Dillon Thieneman (31) celebrates after getting a tackle during the NCAA football game against the Fresno State Bulldogs, Saturday, Sept. 2, 2023, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. Fresno State Bulldogs won 39-35.
Location | Ross-Ade Stadium (West Lafayette, Indiana)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 94.9% (up from 94.0%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 43-15-2
Projected running record | 9-0
Nov. 15 vs. UCLA
Sep 4, 2021; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins wide receiver Kyle Philips (2) celebrates with offensive lineman Paul Grattan (65) offensive lineman Jon Gaines II (57) and tight end Greg Dulcich (85) his touchdown scored against the Louisiana State Tigers during the second half the at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
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Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 97.3% (up from 97.2%)
All-time series | Series tied 4-4-1
Projected running record | 10-0
Nov. 22 vs. Rutgers
Dec 26, 2024; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights head coach Greg Schiano reacts after losing to the Kansas State Wildcats in the Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Location | Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 88.4% (down from 90.3%)
All-time series | Ohio State leads 10-0
Projected running record | 11-0
Nov 18, 2017; Madison, WI, USA; An Michigan Wolverines helmet during the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Location | Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Predicted winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes win probability | 77.9% (up from 70.7%)
All-time series | Michigan leads 62-52-6
Projected running record | 12-0
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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: Ohio State updated ESPN game-by-game win probabilities after Week 2
