Less than a week has passed since the 2025 college football season came to an end, and eyes are already looking forward to next fall. The transfer portal window has closed and thousands of players have committed to new schools with thousands more doing the same in the coming weeks and months.
As part of the shift towards next year, ESPN’s Bill Connelly has published his 2026 College Football Playoff prediction, complete with an entire breakdown of the seeding and a round-by-round progression culminating in the crowning of a champion.
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And while it’s much to early to do so, it provides a glimpse of the national outlook on the Oregon Ducks in 2026.
Of course, with a strong nucleus returning headlined by quarterback Dante Moore and the entire starting defensive line, Connelly expects the Ducks to make the CFP. But it’s the seed that may turn some heads, as he has Oregon at No. 9.
“As with Georgia, the Ducks’ defense thrived ahead of schedule, with a pretty young core, in 2025,” Connelly wrote. “I was skeptical of the addition of transfer quarterback Dylan Raiola (Nebraska), but with the announced return of quarterback Dante Moore and a fabulous crop of 2025 freshmen, the Ducks should be loaded once more. No one’s a sure thing in college football now, but Dan Lanning’s team is awfully close, even if it still needs to address that ‘getting blown out by the eventual national champion in the CFP each year’ thing.”
According to his bracket (which also includes the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers, No. 5 USC Trojans and No. 7 Ohio State out of the Big Ten) the ninth-seeded Ducks would travel to Miami to take on the eighth-seeded Hurricanes, an extremely intriguing matchup between former Oregon head coach Mario Cristobal and the man who replaced him in Dan Lanning.
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The Ducks come away with the road victory, per Connelly’s prediction.
From there, Oregon is set to take on — once again — the No. 1 Hoosiers, who will boast a slew of talented transfers and, behind head coach Curt Cignetti, run the table for the second straight season and claim the CFP’s top seed.
But unlike last season, in which the Ducks were blown out, 56-22, Oregon gets revenge and takes down Indiana in the upset.
That results in a matchup with the No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who defeated USC on their way to matching up with the Ducks. And in a bit of potential trolling by Connelly, Notre Dame beats Oregon and then wins the national title over the Georgia Bulldogs — making it three straight seasons that the Ducks would lose to the eventual national champion.
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With the core that’s coming back in 2026 for Oregon, it’s championship or bust. While that may have been the mentality in 2025, this has always been a two-year plan with Moore at quarterback. His decision to return boosted their chances of competing for a title greatly, putting heavy expectations on next season.
While it’s obvious that not a whole lot can be gleaned from Connelly’s prediction nearly 12 months in advance, if turns out to be true, the Ducks’ players, coaches and fan base would most certainly not be happy with the season that they had — one that has played out nearly exactly the same in both 2024 and 2025.
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: ESPN’s 2026 CFP projection for Oregon Ducks
