There is a buzz starting to grow in the college football world, originating from the Pacific Northwest.
After an impressive start to the season, people are starting to talk about what’s taking place in Eugene as the Oregon Ducks continue to roll. A blowout 69-3 win over Oklahoma State in Week 2 is the latest example of what Dan Lanning has cooking. As ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit said on Saturday night’s broadcast of the Oklahoma Sooners vs. Michigan Wolverines, people should start to take notice.
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“It feels like no one is talking about Oregon this year,” Herbstreit said. “It’s like they’re taking the year off. People need to remember that they’re playing ball up there in Eugene.”
One entity that is taking notice is ESPN’s Football Power Index, which moved Oregon all the way up to the No. 1 spot in the rankings following Week 2 action.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, examining their rosters, schedules, and winning percentages, and ultimately determining where they stand after the season concludes.
In short, it examines Oregon’s 2025 schedule and predicts the percentage of wins the Ducks need to achieve in each game. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. While it may not be perfect, it provides a glimpse into how deeper metrics evaluate the team. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say going into Week 3 of the season:
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Aug 30, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Northwestern Wildcats quarterback Preston Stone (8) passes against Tulane Green Wave during the second half at Yulman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 94.6%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 89.7%
Analysis: Northwestern has yet to show anything that makes you believe they can hang with even an average Big Ten team for four quarters, let alone a top-tier team like Oregon.
Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers — Week 4
Oregon State’s Maalik Murphy, left, throws the ball during an NCAA football game against California at Reser Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025, in Corvallis, Ore.
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 98.6%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 97.4%
Analysis: It looks like another tough year is going to unfold for the Oregon State Beavers, and this rivalry game will likely be one that many fans forget a few years down the road.
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Oregon Ducks at Penn State Nittany Lions — Week 5
Aug 30, 2025; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) runs with the ball during the third quarter against the Nevada Wolf Pack at Beaver Stadium. Penn State defeated Nevada 46-9. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 48.3%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 32.4%
Analysis: Oregon picked up some percentage points when it comes to this game, so they must have shown ESPN’s FPI something that it liked on Saturday. Still, a win against Penn State in Happy Valley is going to be tough. By no means are the Ducks out of this game, but it’s going to likely be a top-5 matchup, which is never easy to win on the road.
For more Penn State news and analysis, check out Nittany Lions Wire!
Oregon Ducks vs. Indiana Hoosiers — Week 7
Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (15) during the Indiana versus Old Dominion football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025.
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 86.6%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 85.8%
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Analysis: Turning around and getting the Indiana Hoosiers a game after playing Penn State on the road isn’t ideal, but Oregon, fortunately, gets a bye week in between to rest and recover after a long trip out east. The Hoosiers should be pretty good this team, led by Curt Cignetti and now Fernando Mendoza under center. This will be a big spot for the Ducks at home, either bouncing back from a tough loss or carrying momentum after a massive win against Penn State.
Oregon Ducks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights — Week 8
DUPLICATE***Rutgers Scarlet Knights quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis (16) makes it difficult for Ohio Bobcats safety DJ Walker (2) to know whether or not the ball will be handed over to DUPLICATE***Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back CJ Campbell Jr. (5), Thursday, August 28, 2025, in Piscataway.
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 83.0%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 77.4%
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Analysis: It will be a long trip out to New Jersey to play Rutgers, but that may be the most challenging factor in this game for Oregon. While the Scarlet Knights have established themselves as at least a middling team in the Big Ten, the Ducks should still have the talent necessary to take them down on the road.
Oregon Ducks vs. Wisconsin Badgers — Week 9
Aug 28, 2025; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Danny O’Neil (18) rushes with the football as Miami (OH) RedHawks linebacker Malcolm McCain (3) defends during the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 93.2%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 87.4%
Analysis: A year ago, Wisconsin gave Oregon all it could handle on the road in Camp Randall at night. This time around, there are some more questions facing the Badgers, and the Ducks get them at home. This should be a reasonably straightforward game at Autzen.
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For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire!
Oregon Ducks at Iowa Hawkeyes — Week 11
Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) passes the ball against the Albany Great Danes Aug. 30, 2025 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 85.4%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 74.2%
Analysis: Going into Week 1, there were questions about how good Iowa could be with Mark Gronowski under center. He has failed to impress so far, to say the least. Iowa may have a great defense, and playing in Kinnick Stadium is going to be tough, but it feels like Oregon should be able to get this one done.
For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire!
Oregon Ducks vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers — Week 12
Aug 28, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers running back Darius Taylor (1) runs the ball against the Buffalo Bulls during the first half of the game at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 93.3%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 89.5%
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Analysis: A return home will be nice for Oregon after a taxing trip to Iowa, and while Minnesota is expected to be decent this season, the Ducks currently project as a team that should be able to handle this game with relative ease.
Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans — Week 13
Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws the ball against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 69.1%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 58.4%
Analysis: Outside of Oregon and Penn State, USC certainly has been one of the most impressive teams in the Big Ten so far. This game is shaping up to be one of the toughets on Oregon’s schedule.
For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire!
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Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies — Week 14
Aug 30, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (2) escapes a potential sack by Colorado State Rams linebacker Jacob Ellis (44) during the second quarter at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 82.6%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 75.2%
Analysis: Another one of Oregon’s big road games, this time in late November. The Ducks will have to go up to Seattle and face what could be a resurgent Washington team, potentially with a spot in the College Football Playoff conversation on the line. Rivalry week should be fun once again.
For more Washington news and analysis, check out UW Huskies Wire!
Overall Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning leads his team onto the field as the Oregon Ducks host the Montana State Bobcats on Aug. 30, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.
Percent Chance to Win Out: 9.4%
Previous FPI %: 2.1%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 33.7%
Previous FPI %: 16.3%
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Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 80.6%
Previous FPI %: 57.9%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 29.8%
Previous FPI %: 12.7%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 17.0%
Previous FPI %: 5.7%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon Ducks take over as championship favorites, per ESPN FPI
