Paul Finebaum Names SEC Sleeper With Path to First College Football Playoff originally appeared on Athlon Sports.
The 12-team College Football Playoff provides more programs with the opportunity to compete in the postseason tournament for the first time in their history. Last year marked the inaugural season of this expanded format, which allowed six teams to participate in the playoff for the first time.
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The Arizona State Sun Devils, Tennessee Volunteers, SMU Mustangs, Boise State Broncos, Indiana Hoosiers and Penn State Nittany Lions all qualified for the first time. This year, more teams hope to join those ranks.
ESPN’s Paul Finebaum believes that the Ole Miss Rebels, coached by Lane Kiffin, could be on track for their first appearance in the playoffs. On his show, “The Paul Finebaum Show,” he expressed that the Rebels’ schedule presents them with a fantastic opportunity.
Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin.Matt Bush-Imagn Images
“Ole Miss has a very good schedule, and if they can pull an upset with that schedule that they have, I think they could be a playoff team,” Finebaum said. “But they have to twist one or two of those games.”
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Paul Finebaum Thinks Ole Miss Has to Avoid ‘Blowing Games Early’
Last season, many believed the Ole Miss Rebels were poised to be a playoff team. They finished the year with a record of 10-3 but narrowly missed making the postseason tournament. A significant factor in their exclusion was an early-season loss to the Kentucky Wildcats (4-8), which occurred at home with a score of 20-17.
If Ole Miss had won that game, it likely would have secured a spot in the College Football Playoff (CFP). Finebaum believes the Rebels must avoid a loss like that in the future.
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“I think Ole Miss has a chance of being undefeated going to Georgia,” Finebaum previously noted. “Now, I say that knowing Lane Kiffin has a propensity of blowing games early. If he can avoid that, I think he’s got a real shot at making the playoffs.”
Finebaum warns that Ole Miss should be careful, as the LSU Tigers will be a challenging opponent early in the season. However, he believes the other early games are winnable.
He also notes that Kiffin’s management of the road games against the Oklahoma Sooners, along with the home games against the South Carolina Gamecocks and Florida Gators at the end of the season, could have a significant impact on the team’s success.
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ESPN’s Football Power Index Isn’t Sold on the Rebels
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) measures a team’s strength and predicts its future performance. This season, the FPI has a somewhat positive outlook on the Rebels, although it remains cautious.
Ole Miss is ranked as the No. 13 team in the country, which places them as the No. 7 team in the SEC. The forecast predicts an 8-4 record for the season. Furthermore, the Rebels have a 30.7% chance of making the playoffs, ranking as the sixth-best odds in the conference.
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Ole Miss Replaces Key Players, Including Star QB Jaxson Dart
For Ole Miss to make the playoff, it must replace several key players lost from last year’s roster. The most significant departure is quarterback Jaxson Dart, who had an exceptional season. He threw for 4,279 yards, 29 touchdowns and only six interceptions, completing 69.3% of his passes. His remarkable performance earned him a first-round selection by the New York Giants in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The defense is facing significant losses, returning only 45% of its production, which ranks 104th in the nation. This follows a strong season where the Rebels were ranked No. 14 in total defense, No. 2 in rush defense and No. 2 in scoring defense. Ole Miss will be without five of its top six sack leaders from last season.
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Redshirt sophomore quarterback Austin Simmons is anticipated to succeed Dart. Last year, Simmons threw for 282 yards and two touchdowns, completing 59.4% of his passes during limited playing time.
The Rebels will kick off their season against Georgia State on August 30 at 7:45 p.m. ET.
Related: Paul Finebaum Names Prominent SEC Coach Who Was a ‘Bust’ in 2024
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Aug 12, 2025, where it first appeared.
